Whichever way you look at it, the Belgian Grand Prix appears to be a nailed on one-stopper. The two softest compounds can be used to get to the flag, with a 16-lap stint on the super-softs followed by a 28-lap stint on the softs the most likely option for the top ten (who will all start on the red-striped tyre).
Depending on how well drivers manage the super-softs, they may be able to go longer than lap 16, but the soft proved to be a solid race tyre in practice and is likely to offer respectable pace throughout a stint of up to 30 laps. Also, several drivers experienced blistering on the super-softs during practice, which could trigger earlier pit stops if it re-emerges on race day.
Cooler conditions should help combat that blistering, and may induce graining on the front tyres instead. But such is the energy put through the tyre in Spa's fast corners that a car with a poor set-up is always in danger of damaging its tyres while running heavy fuel at the start of the race.
Given that Valtteri Bottas is starting from the back of the grid, Ferrari are likely to have the upper-hand in dictating strategy at the front, with Sebastian Vettel starting second and Kimi Raikkonen seventh. Don't be surprised if Raikkonen pits relatively early to try and pressure Lewis Hamilton with an undercut while Vettel attempts to go longer. Track position will be key, although a good run from La Source, through Eau Rouge and up to Les Combes can provide an overtaking opportunity.
A Safety Car is the only thing that may upset strategy, although if an early one comes out teams will still have the option of switching to the mediums to continue through to the end of the race.