MEXICO CITY -- If it stays dry, the Mexican Grand Prix looks likely to be a two-stop race, but the threat of rain hovers over this event and could turn it into a fascinating contest.
The high-altitude Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez circuit has produced a mixed up order, with the thin air negating the season-long power deficit which has hamstrung the Red Bull cars, helping the former world champions to its first front-row lock-out since the 2013 U.S. Grand Prix. In the warmer temperatures of Friday, Red Bull dominated as Mercedes and Ferrari struggled with tyres, but the cooler conditions of Sunday should make this less of a headache for everyone.
The long run down to Turn 1 always presents a fascinating battle and the man who emerges from the first sequence of corners with the lead will be perfectly placed to win the race. While Red Bull has held a performance advantage so far this weekend, Mercedes and Ferrari should be quicker off the line.
Pirelli has mapped out the quickest route to the chequered flag in a race run in normal conditions -- the tyres this weekend are the soft, super-soft and hyper-soft.
Race strategy for 71-lap #MexicoGP: fastest strategy is a two-stopper. Either: one stint on ultrasoft for 9 laps then two 31-lap stints on supersoft. Or: one stint on hypersoft for 5 laps then two 33-lap stints on supersoft. #F1 (1/1)
— Pirelli Motorsport (@pirellisport) October 27, 2018
The second-quickest strategy for the #MexicoGP is a one-stopper, although this needs plenty of tyre management. One stint on ultrasoft for 15-18 laps, then supersoft to the flag. #F1
— Pirelli Motorsport (@pirellisport) October 27, 2018
Strategy options are liimted slightly as the two softest compound options are much less durable than the yellow-striped soft tyre. Side note: For those wondering why or confused by the fact the 'soft' tyre is the hardest available compound this weekend, F1 and Pirelli are simplifying its naming convention for 2019 so every race features just a hard, medium and soft option.
Were it to rain during the race, everything would change. It could work one of both ways for Renault and Sauber, whose drivers start on the fourth and fifth row of the grid with the delicate hyper-soft tyre. Pirelli estimates that it's softest compound can last for around just five laps at optimum performance, meaning those two teams will be forced to stop in the early stages of the race, although they will enjoy a grip advantage at the start.
Rain before the race would effectively save both teams from the strategy headache which would have followed in the race, because it would prompt everyone to start on intermediate or wet tyres -- rain in the opening 10 or 15 laps could be disastrous in terms of the outcome of their races if they have already switched from hyper-softs to one of the other compounds when the weather changes.
Force India's radio communications after qualifying suggested it had not wanted to progress from Q2 -- neither of its drivers did, meaning both will start with the advantage of the more durable super-soft tyre for the opening stint of the race. With Esteban Ocon and Sergio Perez starting 11th and 13th, the Silverstone team will fancy its chances of jumping the two teams ahead of it on strategy.
While the likes of Haas, which saw both drivers eliminated from Q1, would seem to be the likely benefactors from rain, team boss Guenther Steiner doubts it would make much difference to those starting down the order.
"No rain -- if it rains, no chance to get points," he said when asked his hopes for Sunday. "Some people have to do a two-stop, hopefully we get away with one stop. We are just too much out of position to get points. Unless some magic happens, it's very difficult to get into the points starting from where we are."