SAO PAULO, Brazil -- Mercedes and Ferrari are set to start the Brazilian Grand Prix on alternate strategies, setting up a fascinating contest which may also be affected by mid-race rain.
Ferrari's qualifying gamble of having Sebastian Vettel and Kimi Raikkonen progress from Q2 on the soft tyre means both will start on the strategy Pirelli predicts gives the quickest route to the chequered flag in dry conditions. That advantage mitigated some of the disappointment of Vettel being beaten to pole position by new world champion Lewis Hamilton, who starts on the less durable super-soft tyre.
If the rain stays away, Vettel and Raikkonen -- and anyone else starting on the soft tyre -- should be able to stay on that compound until around lap 32-36, before taking on the medium tyre to the finish. Anyone starting on the super-soft tyre like Lewis Hamilton and Mercedes teammate Valtteri Bottas can expect that compound to last until lap 25-30 -- a second stint on the medium tyre is also recommended by Pirelli in this instance due to the low degradation levels of the white-striped tyre. The difference in durability gives those on the soft tyre the advantage of jumping the super-soft runners in the pit-stop window.
The one advantage for those starting on the super-soft tyre is that they will be afforded better grip off the line for what is a very short run down to Turn 1. For the rest of the race that is the best overtaking opportunity after the long run up the hill from Juncao but as ever, track position is always advantageous, especially when starting the race on what is considered to be the second-best of the strategies in play. In terms of the fight for the win, Vettel will hope he can replicate his start from 2017 (pictured), where he beat pole-sitter Bottas off the line to lead into Turn 1.
Once again, a two-stop strategy does not present a quicker option, regardless of the temperatures. If Speaking to one team on Sunday morning, there is an expectation of rain -- possibly heavy -- during the race. That would completely change the complexion of the strategic battles in play.
Race pace
Friday's long runs suggested Ferrari has the advantage going into the race, with Red Bull and Mercedes on average 0.3s slower per lap. However, as ever with Friday practice, these readings always give an imperfect view of the weekend as a whole.
Sauber qualified impressively on Saturday and looks set to be the team to beat in the midfield fight, with the strongest Friday race pace of any team outside the top three. Friday's averages put it around 0.2s a lap quicker than Force India and Renault -- although the same caveat must be placed on these figures. Haas can also expect to be in that battle, but the American team will be disappointed not to have converted a very promising run of practice sessions into having two cars in the top ten, with Kevin Magnussen caught out by the changing conditions in Q2.