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          Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Wednesday's MLB games

          Jose Berrios of the Toronto Blue Jays will look to bounce back against the New York Yankees. Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
          • ESPN Fantasy
          May 11, 2022, 05:22 PM

          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared towards ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          What you need to know for Wednesday's MLB Games

          By Todd Zola

          • Wednesday features a full 15-game slate with three contests in the 12:25 PM ET block, so get those lineups set early. An intriguing place to look is in one of the early games as the Cincinnati Reds lineup has emerged from its slumber to score 31 runs in the four previous games leading into Tuesday's action. Adrian Houser will take the ball for the visiting Milwaukee Brewers. Brandon Drury (20% rostered in ESPN leagues) leads the way with his eligibility at second, third and outfield. Joining Drury as options are Tommy Pham (38% rostered in ESPN leagues), Tyler Naquin (3% rostered) and Colin Moran (1%).

          • It's an extremely difficult schedule to find starters to stream, in part due to many teams waiting to announce their mound choice. The top known option is Nick Martinez taking the hill as the San Diego Padres host the Chicago Cubs. The Cubs offense has gone into hibernation, averaging the second fewest runs per game over the past week. Meanwhile, Martinez has helped fill the void with Blake Snell still out. In his first season back in MLB after spending 2018-2021 pitching in Japan, Martinez has fanned 22 in 26 2/3 innings though his 3.38 ERA is artificially low as suggested by his 1.43 WHIP. Even so, Martinez should be able to limit traffic facing a soft Cubs lineup.

          • One of the tougher calls on the Wednesday card is whether to trust Jose Berrios in Yankee Stadium. The Toronto Blue Jays righthander is coming off a subpar effort against the Cleveland Guardians where he yielded six runs in 4 2/3 innings, failing to register any strikeouts. His velocity was in line with his prior two outings, so last time out was just one of those nights. Berrios usually rises to the occasion, so while it's defensible to reserve the righthander, his history suggests he'll step up and pitch well in a game between two of the top teams in the game, let alone the AL East.

          • After playing a doubleheader on Tuesday, the Oakland Athletics and Detroit Tigers will be relying on inexperienced arms with Zach Logue making his second start for Oakland while Detroit's Joey Wentz will make his major league debut. With both offenses struggling, an argument can be tendered for either as a streamer, though Wentz's setup is a bit more favorable. The Athletics are fanning at the third highest rate in the league over the past week while Wentz fanned 26 in 19 2/3 innings for Triple-A Toledo before his promotion. Wentz isn't likely to work more than five frames, but the Tigers bullpen surprisingly sports the second-best ERA in the majors.

          • On paper, the matinee in the desert between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Miami Marlins should be a low-scoring affair with Merrill Kelly and Sandy Alcantara taking the ball for their respective sides. However, the Snakes offense is heating up while the Fish catch Kelly coming off a long 8 2/3 innings outing, so his leash could be shorter. Admittedly, it's betting on a narrative, but taking the over on what should be a conservative line could be profitable.

          Starting pitcher rankings for Wednesday

          Best Sub-50% Rostered Hitters for Wednesday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst Over-50% Rostered Hitters for Wednesday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Wednesday

          Prop of the Day

          Sandy Alcantara strikeouts: Over/Under 5.5 (+105/-140)

          PROJECTION

          THE BAT X sees Alcantara putting up 4.3 strikeouts for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 28.5% of the time. THE BAT X believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $31.48.

          Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

          FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER

          • Alcantara has been given an above-average leash since the start of last season, throwing 8.7 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.

          • Given that groundball pitchers hold a sizable advantage against groundball hitters, Alcantara (50.6 GB% according to THE BAT X projections) is well-situated in this game with two groundball hitters in his opposition's projected lineup.

          FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER

          • Chase Field ranks as the No. 22 park in baseball for strikeouts, per THE BAT X projection system.

          • Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game projects as the second-hottest of the day at 85 degrees.

          • The Diamondbacks have eight hitters in their projected offense that will have the handedness advantage against Alcantara in this game.

          • Alcantara will be at a disadvantage by playing on the road today.