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Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
What you need to know for Friday's MLB Games
By Todd Zola
Friday presents the usual 15-games, with all being evening affairs. It's a frustrating slate for streaming pitchers but there are a few to consider. Spencer Strider (15% rostered in ESPN leagues) should be stretched out to work at least five frames when the Atlanta Braves host the Pittsburgh Pirates. The visitors tote the fifth lowest wOBA and strikeout rate against righthanders into the affair.
For the season, the Seattle Mariners have been a below average offense with a lefty on the hill, though they did manage to tally four runs in two innings against Rich Hill in Fenway Park last month. The rematch is in T-Mobile Stadium, but that's a park upgrade for Hill (5% rostered). Look for Hill to enact a measure of revenge for the surging Red Sox, whose righty-heavy lineup should be able to score against southpaw Marco Gonzales.
Tylor Megill (61%) is making his return after missing a month with right biceps tendinitis. It's always a risk starting a pitcher after a long layoff, but Megill draws a struggling Los Angeles Angels lineup which still could be without Mike Trout. The Angels fan the fourth most in the league against righthanders, so Megill should be deployed immediately, and picked up if available.
There are three under-the-radar offenses facing weak pitching to target for streaming or DFS purposes, beginning with the Tampa Bay Rays at home against Minnesota Twins lefty Devin Smeltzer. Manuel Margot (43%), Yandy Diaz (33%), Harold Ramirez (1%) and Isaac Paredes (1%) all enjoy the platoon edge. Paul Blackburn has struggled in his last two starter, albeit against the Astros and Red Sox. Even so, the Cleveland Guardians have been surprisingly productive, rendering Steven Kwan (41%), Amed Rosario (39%), Josh Naylor (38%), Andres Gimenez (33%) and Oscar Gonzalez (2%) as solid options. Lastly, a trio of righthanded Kansas City Royals are in a favorable spot with Baltimore Orioles lefty Bruce Zimmermann on the hill. Don't hesitate to trust Hunter Dozier (24%), Michael Taylor (1%) or Emmanuel Rivera (1%).
There are also a few standalone hitters available for pickup. Josh Rojas (36%) qualifies at four positions so he can easily be fit in for his matchup facing Kyle Gibson. Teammate Alek Thomas (12%) is beginning to heat up as well. Nick Senzel (2%) doesn't have the platoon edge on the St. Louis Cardinals' Andre Pallante, but the Reds outfielder is showing signs of breaking out and could be more than a one-game pickup. Kole Calhoun (17%) has cooled from his recent heater, but he's still in good shape facing Chicago White Sox righthander Davis Martin.
It's not too late to start another free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday.
Starting pitcher rankings for Friday
Best Sub-50% Rostered Hitters for Friday
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Mitch Garver (TEX, C -- 20%) at Martin
Santiago Espinal (TOR, 3B -- 28%) at Elvin Rodriguez
Andrew McCutchen (MIL, LF -- 29%) at Erick Fedde
Tommy Pham (CIN, LF -- 39%) at Pallante
Andrew Vaughn (CHW, LF -- 42%) vs. Glenn Otto
Jonathan Schoop (DET, 1B -- 45%) vs. Jose Berrios
Worst Over-50% Rostered Hitters for Friday
Patrick Wisdom (CHC, 3B -- 50%) at Luis Severino
Ryan McMahon (COL, 3B -- 66%) at Joe Musgrove
Harrison Bader (STL, CF -- 55%) vs. Luis Castillo
Brendan Rodgers (COL, 2B -- 56%) at Musgrove
Connor Joe (COL, LF -- 72%) at Musgrove
Frank Schwindel (CHC, 1B -- 59%) at Severino
Tyler O'Neill (STL, LF -- 70%) vs. Castillo
Jeremy Pena (HOU, SS -- 70%) vs. Pablo Lopez
Keibert Ruiz (WSH, C -- 79%) vs. Aaron Ashby
Owen Miller (CLE, 2B -- 57%) vs. Paul Blackburn
THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Friday
Toronto Blue Jays at Rodriguez
Prop of the Day
Wade Miley strikeouts: Over/Under 4.5 (+126/-160)
PROJECTION
THE BAT X sees Miley putting up 2.7 strikeouts for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 16.6% of the time. THE BAT X believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $56.79.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER
Yankee Stadium ranks as the No. 5 venue in baseball for strikeouts, per THE BAT X projection system.
Miley has utilized his slider 6.8% more often this season (11.8%) than he did last year (5%).
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER
THE BAT X projects Miley to throw 70 pitches in this matchup (second-least on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
The Yankees (20.5 K%, per THE BAT X) project to have the fifth-least strikeout-heavy lineup today.
The weatherman calls for the fourth-best hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity.
The Yankees have eight bats in the projected lineup that will have the handedness advantage against Miley in this game, which is especially precarious given his large platoon split.