The biggest transactional shake-up date of MLB's regular-season calendar is a mere 41 days away. Yes, Aug. 1, the annual trade deadline, is rapidly approaching.
Any experienced fantasy baseball manager knows well that there's no bigger time for player values to dramatically shift than as a direct result of trades, be it the actual individuals involved in a deal or the players either left behind or impacted by new arrivals. While there's only so much we can do to prepare our rosters for these often-anticipated shifts, getting our teams in order now according to what we do expect to happen can pay dividends over the final two months' worth of our annual mad dash to the finish line.
The following players stand out as those facing the greatest likelihood of positive gains in fantasy value as a result of probable trades, either of themselves or their teammates. Any of them could be worth a pickup, a trade inquiry or even simply getting jotted down on your watch list, depending upon the depth of your league.
To be clear, this is not simply a "who are the biggest names we expect to be traded" column. You can check ESPN's baseball pages for the latest on that front. And you won't find Shohei Ohtani on the list below, for the simple reasons that he's already the best player in fantasy baseball (and real baseball) and his Los Angeles Angels are currently seven games above .500, five games out in the AL West race and tied for the No. 2 wild card spot. No, this isn't Ohtani's space, as there's little chance of actionable change coming for him, but each of the following names indeed might be in a very different situation for August and September.
Lucas Giolito, SP, Chicago White Sox: As an impending free agent with a 13.2 WAR since the beginning of 2019 (17th-best among pitchers), Giolito might be the most obvious trade chip on this summer's market. Among the names most commonly on the rumor mill, he's probably also the pitcher most likely to enjoy a spike in fantasy value as a result of any deal.
Giolito does benefit from facing a greater share of lighter AL Central competition than either of the divisions on the coast -- either of which hosts his most probable landing spots -- but getting out of Chicago's Guaranteed Rate Field, a homer-happy environment with among the smallest outfield fair territory, would be a huge plus.
This is the first of any of his seven seasons with the White Sox in which he has a better home (2.47) than road ERA (4.64), and he has a much higher HR/9 ratio at home (1.51) than on the road (1.13) since joining the team in 2017. Giolito has also suffered from mediocre run support on a White Sox team currently 11 games below .500, having four times delivering a quality start in which he failed to record a win.
While the variability of trade destinations coupled with the adjustment to new circumstances make it difficult to project exactly how much a player's fantasy value might improve following a trade, Giolito is one of those rare pitchers with a top-40 starter's valuation who might well see that elevate to somewhere near the top 25 elsewhere.
Marcus Stroman, SP, Chicago Cubs: He is perhaps the next-most obvious pitching trade chip. Stroman is a probable All-Star and is likely to turn down a $21 million player option for 2023 in pursuit of a big payday. He would benefit from any trade, in part because both the Cubs offense and bullpen that support him are league-average (if not worse) -- and that's before considering what happens to either if this below-.500 team trades away other "rental pieces."
In his year and a half with the Cubs, he has had 12 quality starts that failed to earn him a win, including four games this year in which his team scored two or fewer runs. Getting out of Wrigley Field, with its year-over-year park factor volatility resulting partly from the wind, would also help his cause.
About the only reason Stroman might not experience quite the spike that Giolito could is that, as a more ground-balling, minimize-homers pitcher, he's more reliant upon his defense, so ideally he'd be backed by a middle-infield defense as good as or better than that of the Cubs.
Nolan Jones, OF, Colorado Rockies: This is the first name who isn't a rumored trade candidate himself, but he is one who could benefit nevertheless, specifically from prospective deals of outfielders Randal Grichuk and/or Charlie Blackmon. One might hope that top prospect Zac Veen might get the call instead, after his standout spring training, but his struggles at Double-A Hartford make Jones a much more probable candidate for an everyday role down the stretch.
Still only 25 years old, Jones has flashed elite contact-quality and raw speed metrics in the limited time since his call-up and, while he's playing pretty regularly already, any clean-out of the team's veteran talent only strengthens his everyday role -- as well as a premium lineup position.
Tyler O'Neill, OF, St. Louis Cardinals: One could probably list the entire Cardinals outfield here, since if the team parts with any of them, it would simply clear up playing time for what remains of the most cluttered part of their roster. That said, O'Neill is the one who might best benefit from a change of scenery.
A top-20 rotisserie performer over the team's final 142 games of 2021, O'Neill has made four trips to the IL since, not to mention he has no guarantee of returning from his current back issue in time to make enough noise to be traded. Still, when healthy, he has delivered effectively 90th-percentile Statcast contact quality metrics, not to mention some of the best raw speed in baseball.
This means that, in the right circumstances, he could break through in a big way. Remember, Busch Stadium leans pretty pitcher-friendly, so the odds that he'd wind up somewhere with a clearer path to playing time in a premium lineup spot at a more hitting-friendly home environment are good.
Eduardo Rodriguez, SP, Detroit Tigers: He's no lock to be traded, either, as he's another player currently on the IL, recovering from a ruptured pulley in his left index finger. However, before getting hurt, he was pitching well enough to theorize that he might opt out of the final three years (and $49 million) on his current contract, putting him on the candidates list.
Rodriguez is one of the more underrated pitchers around, with a 3.69 FIP and 24.9% strikeout rate since the beginning of 2018, but he suffers from a lack of run support from a terrible Tigers offense. Plus, the chances that the team could trade from some of its bullpen strength threatens that his future success as well.
Yes, at the time Rodriguez signed with the Tigers, the "weak AL Central competition" argument was valid and compelling, but with the more balanced schedule this season, his divisional location is less critical to his fantasy prospects. He might become rejuvenated with a move to a contender and, in the right circumstances, could end up being the most valuable of the three pitchers discussed in this column for the rest of 2023.
Other names to tuck away
Should the Cincinnati Reds make a push for pitching, perhaps using some of their hitting surplus to make such a move, Christian Encarnacion-Strand could find a place in the team's crowded infield. He's one of the better remaining power-hitting prospects in the upper minors, and is deserving of a big league opportunity soon.
Hayden Wesneski currently seems like the odd man out in the Cubs rotation, but any move of Stroman, Drew Smyly or Kyle Hendricks would thrust him right back into the starting five. Wesneski's sweeper has been quite good this year -- Statcast has it with minus-3 Run Value -- but he has struggled to locate his four-seam fastball, where he didn't last year. There's still talent here, and perhaps another opportunity might make him one of the second half's better sleepers.