Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Saturday's MLB games

ESPN Fantasy

Jul 22, 2023, 03:19 PM

Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared towards ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

For an in-depth look at what to expect in this daily article and for how to best utilize the information contained within, check out our handy primer here.

Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

What you need to know for Saturday's MLB games

By Mike Sheets

Reid Detmers (45% rostered in ESPN leagues) has struggled in back-to-back outings against the Los Angeles Dodgers and Houston Astros, but his favorable Saturday matchup versus the Pittsburgh Pirates should help him get back on track. Since July 1, the Pittsburgh Pirates' offense has been the worst in baseball with a 64 wRC+, .267 wOBA, and 25.3% strikeout rate. Armed with a stellar 28.9% K rate that ranks fourth best in the American League (minimum 90 IP), Detmers carries tons of potential into this weekend's tasty matchup, giving him plenty of streamer appeal.
Squaring off against Detmers is Osvaldo Bido, who owns a 5.00 ERA over his first seven big league appearances (six starts) while surrendering a .361 wOBA to left-handed batters. With a matchup against the Los Angeles Angels on tap for Saturday, lefty hitters Mickey Moniak (16% rostered), Mike Moustakas (1%) and Trey Cabbage (0%), who popped 23 homers and swiped 24 bags at Triple-A prior to his promotion last week, are worth a look as streaming options.
Rookie hurler Tanner Bibee (22%) has shown impressive consistency for the Cleveland Guardians, as he's surrendered more than three earned runs just once in his past 11 outings, leading to a 3.08 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 9.1 K/9 during that stretch. And if you narrow it down to Bibee's past four turns, he sports a 1.59 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 10.3 K/9. A matchup against the Philadelphia Phillies presents a tough test for the young righty, but he still belongs on the streaming radar given his recent track record.
For one reason or another, some players fail to gain much traction in fantasy circles. Ha-Seong Kim is one of them, as he remains a free agent in more than 60% of ESPN leagues. Not only does he carry eligibility at three different positions (SS, 2B, 3B), but he's solidified himself as the San Diego Padres' everyday leadoff hitter, setting the table for Fernando Tatis Jr., Juan Soto and Manny Machado. That's one of the most enviable spots in all of baseball. Kim's recent production is deserving of that spot, too, as he's slashing .330/.400/.538 over his last 28 games while providing both power (six HR) and speed (seven SB). Don't sleep on Kim in the second half.
James Paxton (47%) was roughed up in his last outing against the Cubs, but overall he's been a reliable streaming option this season, holding opponents to three or fewer runs in seven of his past eight starts. He's fanning more than a batter per inning (10.4 K/9) and keeping the walks down (2.6 BB/9) while flashing his best velocity in years. Against a New York Mets squad that's been below average versus lefties (96 wRC+), fire up Paxton as a streamer Saturday.

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Starting pitcher rankings for Saturday

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
14.0	Gerrit Cole	R	KC	99.9%	-250	8	61%	6.2	2.6	7.3
13.1	Cristian Javier	R	@OAK	92.7%	-190	8	64%	5.7	2.1	6.1
12.6	Kevin Gausman	R	@SEA	99.7%	-125	7.5	50%	5.7	2.3	7.1
12.6	Grayson Rodriguez	R	@TB	14.7%	150	7.5	52%	5.5	1.9	5.9
12.3	Max Scherzer	R	@BOS	99.4%	105	9	57%	5.9	2.7	6.7
11.9	Dylan Cease	R	@MIN	96.3%	118	8	54%	5.7	2.5	6.9
11.6	Logan Webb	R	@WSH	98.8%	-195	8.5	66%	6.1	2.7	5.7
11.3	Tanner Bibee	R	PHI	26.2%	105	8	55%	5.7	2.4	5.7
11.1	Jackson Wolf	L	@DET	0.0%	-140	10	59%	5.6	2.2	4.8
11.1	Logan Gilbert	R	TOR	95.8%	105	7.5	50%	5.7	2.4	5.6
10.9	Shane McClanahan	L	BAL	99.8%	-178	7.5	48%	5.2	2.0	5.9
10.2	Zack Wheeler	R	@CLE	98.8%	-125	8	45%	5.9	2.9	5.9
9.9	Reid Detmers	L	PIT	49.6%	-190	9.5	51%	5.2	2.4	5.6
9.9	Allan Winans	R	@MIL	2.0%	-145	9.5	55%	4.6	1.4	3.6
9.6	Miles Mikolas	R	@CHC	30.8%	-130	9.5	58%	5.7	2.7	4.8
9.6	Johnny Cueto	R	COL	1.7%	-160	8.5	57%	5.8	2.6	4.6
9.4	Sonny Gray	R	CWS	83.6%	-140	8	46%	5.2	2.4	5.3
8.8	Brady Singer	R	@NYY	50.2%	205	8	39%	5.8	2.9	5.0
8.0	Osvaldo Bido	R	@LAA	0.5%	158	9.5	49%	4.9	2.3	4.4
7.7	Paul Blackburn	R	HOU	1.7%	158	8	36%	5.3	2.6	4.2
7.7	Bobby Miller	R	@TEX	34.4%	-130	9.5	59%	5.2	3.1	5.1
7.5	Adrian Houser	R	ATL	2.0%	122	9.5	45%	5.3	2.6	4.2
6.9	Matt Manning	R	SD	12.1%	118	10	41%	5.1	2.6	4.1
6.8	Brandon Williamson	L	ARI	2.1%	--	--	54%	4.6	2.5	4.4
6.7	Josiah Gray	R	SF	16.8%	162	8.5	34%	5.5	3.4	5.4
6.5	James Paxton	L	NYM	49.6%	-125	9	43%	4.7	2.7	4.9
6.2	Tyler Gilbert	L	@CIN	0.0%	--	--	46%	4.9	2.9	4.3
6.1	Drew Smyly	L	STL	18.4%	110	9.5	42%	4.8	2.9	4.4
5.6	Chase Anderson	R	@MIA	0.5%	135	8.5	43%	4.2	2.1	3.2
4.1	Dane Dunning	R	LAD	40.2%	110	9.5	41%	5.1	3.7	4.3

Bullpen usage watch for Saturday

By Todd Zola

Paul Sewald earned his third win last night to complement 19 saves. He needed 21 pitches which came on top of 15 the previous day. The combined 36 pitches in back-to-back fashion is likely going to prevent Sewald from working three days in a row. Andres Munoz hasn't pitched since Wednesday when he threw 27 pitches, but with two days to recover, Munoz should be ready to return to action today. With nine holds and a save, Munoz is next in line for closing duties in Seattle.

In yesterday's bullpen notes, avoiding Ryan Pressly was suggested since he pitched the two prior days. Oops. Houston Astros manager Dusty Baker had other plans as he called upon Pressly for a third straight day and he was rewarded with Pressly's 23rd save. This is good intel since now we know Pressly could be used on three consecutive days. However, after tossing 44 pitches since Wednesday, Pressly will almost assuredly be unavailable today. Bryan Abreu and Hector Neris are the top candidates to collect a save or hold today.

Jordan Romano entered the bottom of the ninth last night in a 2-2 tie. He walked the leadoff hitter, who came around to score, saddling Romano with his fifth loss. Romano was working for the second straight day tossing a combined 21 pitches. As we learned from Pressly, benching Romano isn't a no-brainer, especially since primary setup man Erik Swanson has also pitched for two straight days, and he's accrued 39 pitches in that span.

Josh Hader gathered his 24th save last night, needing only 12 pitches. He also collected a save on Wednesday night, using 16 tosses. A total of 28 pitches over a three-day period is enough to have Hader flagged, but probably not enough to keep him out of today's affair.

Emmanuel Clase logged his 26th save yesterday, requiring 14 pitches in the process. Since he was working with two days of rest, Clase should be able to come back today if needed.

Alexis Diaz notched a save last night and Wednesday, totaling an efficient 21 pitches. His usage patterns suggest the Reds closer will be available if needed today.

Last night, Carlos Estevez recorded his first save since July 2. he was pitching with two days of rest, so even though he tossed 21 pitches, Estevez should be good to go today.

Relief Pitcher Usage Chart

This chart lists the pitchers rostered in at least 50% of ESPN leagues who have been most heavily used recently, signaling they might be unavailable today. Rst% is the player's ESPN roster percentage; the listed date is the pitcher's pitch count from the previous day; P3 is the pitcher's total pitch count from the previous three days; Rest is the pitcher's days of rest; Strk is the number of consecutive days the pitcher has worked.

Pitcher	Team	Rst%	7/21	P3	Strk
Paul Sewald	SEA	60.5%	22	37	2
Ryan Pressly	HOU	84.4%	16	44	3
Jordan Romano	TOR	91.6%	12	21	2
Josh Hader	SD	97.4%	12	28	1
Emmanuel Clase	CLE	95.6%	14	14	1
Alexis Diaz	CIN	86.5%	10	21	1
Carlos Estevez	LAA	62.5%	18	18	1

Best Sub-50% Rostered Hitters for Saturday

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and lots more.

Joc Pederson (SF, LF -- 6%) at Josiah Gray
Emmanuel Rivera (ARI, 3B -- 0%) at Brandon Williamson
LaMonte Wade Jr. (SF, RF -- 16%) at Gray
Spencer Torkelson (DET, 1B -- 14%) vs. Jackson Wolf
Evan Longoria (ARI, 3B -- 0%) at Williamson
Jake Fraley (CIN, LF -- 37%) vs. Brandon Pfaadt
Matt Vierling (DET, CF -- 1%) vs. Wolf
Seiya Suzuki (CHC, RF -- 45%) vs. Miles Mikolas
Michael Conforto (SF, RF -- 10%) at Gray
Joey Votto (CIN, 1B -- 15%) vs. Pfaadt

Worst Over-50% Rostered Hitters for Saturday

Josh Lowe (TB, RF -- 53%) vs. Grayson Rodriguez
Ty France (SEA, 1B -- 70%) vs. Kevin Gausman
Anthony Santander (BAL, RF -- 90%) at Shane McClanahan
Teoscar Hernandez (SEA, RF -- 60%) vs. Gausman
Daulton Varsho (TOR, C -- 81%) at Logan Gilbert
Lane Thomas (WSH, LF -- 65%) vs. Logan Webb
Ryan Mountcastle (BAL, 1B -- 52%) at McClanahan
MJ Melendez (KC, C -- 51%) at Gerrit Cole
Brandon Lowe (TB, 2B -- 51%) vs. Rodriguez
Adley Rutschman (BAL, C -- 100%) at McClanahan

THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Today

Prop of the Day

Brady Singer's pitching outs prop is set at 17.5 pitching outs (-170/+140).

PROJECTION

THE BAT sees Singer putting up 17.3 Pitching Outs for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 49.6% of the time. THE BAT believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $21.01.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER

Lance Barrett profiles as a Pitchers Umpire and is likely to be in charge of the strike zone today.
Singer will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against 6 opposing hitters today.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER

The New York Yankees have been the 6th-unluckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress going forward
The #7 field in MLB for boosting home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Yankee Stadium.
In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report calls for for the 4th-most favorable hitting conditions on the schedule today.
Singer's fastball velocity has dropped 1.3 mph this season (91.8 mph) below where it was last season (93.1 mph).