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          Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Sunday's MLB games

          AP Photo/Bruce Kluckhohn
          • ESPN Fantasy
          Jul 30, 2023, 03:30 PM

          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared towards ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          For an in-depth look at what to expect in this daily article and for how to best utilize the information contained within, check out our handy primer here.

          Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          What you need to know for Sunday's MLB Games

          By Todd Zola

          • Sunday's slate gets underway at 12:05 p.m. ET in Rogers Centre as the Toronto Blue Jays wrap up a set with the Los Angeles Angels. This series has major American League playoff implications, as the Blue Jays are currently in the thick of the wild card race while the Angels are clearly hoping to join the fray after dealing for Lucas Giolito. The Sunday night ESPN affair features the Baltimore Orioles hosting the New York Yankees. The Orioles sport the American League's best record, while the Yankees hope Aaron Judge's return can extricate them from the AL East cellar.

          • The pitching matchups offer several chances to catch up or fortify leads in fantasy leagues. The top option is Kenta Maeda (17.8% rostered in ESPN leagues), who has only one win in July but with another strong effort he'll warrant consideration for AL Pitcher of the Month. In four July starts, Maeda has posted a 2.78 ERA and 1.01 WHIP, with 32 strikeouts in 22 2/3 innings. Maeda and the Minnesota Twins wrap up a series in Kaufmann Stadium against a Kansas City Royals lineup with the third-lowest wOBA and sixth-highest strikeout rate facing righties.

          • On Sunday, the Boston Red Sox wrap up an interleague set on the road against the San Francisco Giants. Nick Pivetta (11.5% rostered) is in line to pitch bulk innings on Sunday. Pivetta has been excelling as the primary pitcher lately, fanning 26 in 16 innings over the past three outings in that capacity. The Giants fan at a 25.1% clip against right-handers, the fourth most in MLB.

          • After getting hit hard by the Royals in his third start since debuting in early July, Tarik Skubal (21.6%) rebounded last time out with five scoreless frames against the Giants, fanning nine with no free passes. Next up is a road date with the Miami Marlins, who remain entangled in the National League wild card picture. Even though the Marlins have hit southpaws well, Skubal has the strikeout potential to rack up bountiful fantasy points.

          • Cristopher Sanchez (6.8%) has quietly spun a breakthrough season. His latest outing was his best as he limited the Orioles to just two runs over seven stanzas, collecting eight strikeouts without issuing any walks. On Sunday, Sanchez faces the Pittsburgh Pirates in PNC Park. The Pirates have struggled facing left-handed pitching over the past month, checking in with the fifth-lowest wOBA and sixth-highest strikeout rate against lefties for the past 30 days.

          • The Colorado Rockies haven't announced their Sunday starter, so taking advantage of platoons must wait until we know who will be on the hill. That said, Zack Gelof (2.7%) and Ramon Laureano (2.0%) will be in the Athletics' lineup regardless. There is a good chance lefty Ty Blach pitches for Colorado, putting Brent Rooker (14%) in play.

          • Jarren Duran (24.1%) and Triston Casas (40.1%) have become fixtures in the Red Sox lineup. Duran has a 1.093 OPS this month, while Casas is even higher at 1.335. Both enjoy the platoon edge on Ross Stripling on Sunday.

          Starting pitcher rankings for Sunday

          Bullpen usage for Sunday

          By Todd Zola

          • David Bednar was asked to record five outs yesterday, and he delivered his 21st save, but after throwing 30 pitches, he's likely out of the mix today when the Pittsburgh Pirates wrap up a series with the Philadelphia Phillies. The Pirates have Monday off, so it isn't a foregone conclusion, but the safe play is reserving Bednar today. Colin Holderman is next in line and has posted six straight scoreless efforts, fanning seven with just one walk and one hit allowed in those six innings,

          • Camilo Doval was asked to preserve a 2-0 shutout, but he gave up the tying runs to the Boston Red Sox in the top of the ninth. However, the San Francisco Giants won the game when J.D. Davis hit Kenley Jansen's first pitch off the left field foul pole, handing Doval the win. Doval threw 25 pitches, so his availability for today's rubber game is unclear. He was pitching with three days of rest so there is a chance he can come back today. Tyler Rogers only threw five pitches yesterday and was in with two days of rest, so he's the likeliest candidate to fill in. With 23 holds along with two saves, Rogers has a chance to be productive even if Doval appears.

          • Josh Hader secured the final four outs in the San Diego Padres win 4-0 over the Texas Rangers. It was a non-save scenario, but it was an important game and Hader had not appeared since Tuesday. he tossed 18 pitches, but that likely isn't enough to keep him out today when the Padres go for the sweep of the interleague set.

          • Jansen has not fared well in the second game of back-to-back appearances. As mentioned earlier, yesterday was no exception as all he threw was one pitch, allowing the Giants to walk it off. He threw only nine pitches when collecting the save on Friday night, but heating up on two straight days likely has Jansen sitting out today's rubber match. Chris Martin did not pitch yesterday, so he's the top candidate to handle ninth inning duties if needed today.

          Best Sub-50% Rostered Hitters for Sunday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst Over-50% Rostered Hitters for Sunday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Today

          Prop of the Day

          Colin Rea 15.5 pitching outs (+110/-141)

          PREDICTION

          THE BAT sees Rea putting up 12.3 pitching outs for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 14.8% of the time. THE BAT believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $64.36.

          FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER

          • The Atlanta Braves have been the sixth-luckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X) and are likely to perform worse in the future.

          • The third-deepest left field fences among all stadiums are found in Truist Park.

          FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER

          • The best projected offense on the slate today in terms of overall hitting ability is that of the Atlanta Braves.

          • Alfonso Marquez projects as a Huge Hitters Umpire and is scheduled to be calling pitches today.

          • A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the third-hottest weather of the day at 89°.

          • The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the third-best of the day for batters.