Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Friday's MLB games

ESPN Fantasy

Sep 14, 2023, 08:00 PM

Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared towards ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

For an in-depth look at what to expect in this daily article and for how to best utilize the information contained within, check out our handy primer here.

Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

What you need to know for Friday's MLB Games

By Todd Zola

Friday's schedule consists of 15 evening games, with action beginning at 6:35 PM ET with the New York Yankees visiting the Pittsburgh Pirates. Overall, the slate has a solid set of streaming opportunities. With only three days left in the first round of ESPN fantasy baseball playoffs, taking advantage of the strong Friday inventory could result in less scrambling over the weekend.
Tarik Skubal (39.8% rostered) is the top candidate as he takes the hill in Anaheim for the opener of a weekend set between the Detroit Tigers and Los Angeles Angels. Skubal didn't debut until early July after undergoing flexor tendon surgery late last season. It's only been 12 starts, but Skubal is exhibiting the highest strikeout rate and lowest walk rate of his career. Most importantly, the home run issues plaguing him early in his career appear to be rectified. The southpaw has a juicy matchup against a lineup with the sixth lowest wOBA facing left-handers over the past month. The Angels will be without Mike Trout, and Shohei Ohtani hasn't served as designated hitter since September 3.
Bobby Miller (43.8%) has pitched at least six frames for six straight starts, though he's surrendered at least four runs in half of them. He's coming off the best game of the stretch, a seven-inning, eight-strikeout performance on the road against the Washington Nationals. Miller draws a Seattle Mariners club in the throes of a playoff race. Their lineup has been more productive lately, but they're still fanning at an elevated clip.
Griffin Canning (13.6%) has lost his past two starts, but he's pitched well enough to win with only five runs allowed in the combined 11 1/3 innings. The Angels offense has provided limited support, though that isn't likely to change much facing Skubal. However, Canning opposes an equally unimpressive offense with the Tigers sporting the eighth lowest wOBA and second highest strikeout rate facing right-handers for the past month.
The Minnesota Twins will recall Bailey Ober (22.8%) for the second game of their four-game set with the Chicago White Sox in the Windy City. Ober was demoted to Triple-A St. Paul after a rough stretch in the second half. Trusting him in his return is a risk, but Ober will take on a White Sox lineup with the third poorest wOBA versus righties over the last month.
Rounding out Friday's quintet of top spot starting options is Seth Lugo (31.5%) for his road date against the Oakland Athletics. Lugo struggled in his last outing with the Houston Astros plating six runs in 4 1/3 stanzas, but the San Diego Padres right-hander recorded a 1.24 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over his prior five outings, fanning 27 with only six walks in those 29 innings. The Athletics have recorded the 10th least productive wOBA and sixth poorest strikeout rate with a righty on the hill over the past month.
All eyes remain on Coors Field with the Colorado Rockies having two home series this week. The San Francisco Giants are the weekend guests, and if you want to gain an edge on your pickups, you may want to grab extra Rockies and Giants for tomorrow as well, as soon as today's first game is underway. The teams will play a Saturday doubleheader after Thursday's game was rained out.
Elsewhere, Brandon Lowe (54.2%) is in a good spot facing Jack Flaherty while Royce Lewis (43.3%) and Edouard Julien (3.5%) enjoy a favorable matchup with Jesse Scholtens. In addition, Michael Brantley (9.4%), Sal Frelick (7.6%) and Pete Crow-Armstrong (5.1%) are all in a position to fortify a fantasy lineup facing lesser pitching.

Starting pitcher rankings for Friday

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
12.8	Gerrit Cole	R	@PIT	99.9%	-170	8	56%	6.0	2.5	6.8
12.7	Aaron Nola	R	@STL	98.5%	-140	8.5	68%	6.1	2.6	6.2
12.0	Hunter Greene	R	@NYM	78.1%	-105	8	56%	5.5	2.3	6.9
11.8	Bobby Miller	R	@SEA	48.9%	-113	7.5	59%	5.7	2.2	5.8
11.7	Tarik Skubal	L	@LAA	48.3%	-115	7.5	56%	5.6	2.1	5.2
11.6	Cristian Javier	R	@KC	86.1%	-190	9.5	65%	5.5	2.4	5.9
11.1	Bailey Ober	R	@CWS	27.1%	-178	9	54%	5.5	2.4	5.4
11.0	Griffin Canning	R	DET	17.6%	-105	7.5	44%	5.6	2.4	6.0
10.7	Bryce Elder	R	@MIA	81.6%	-190	9	57%	5.8	2.2	4.8
10.7	Seth Lugo	R	@OAK	39.4%	-210	8.5	61%	5.6	2.4	5.3
10.3	George Kirby	R	LAD	94.9%	-108	7.5	41%	5.4	2.4	5.6
9.9	David Peterson	L	CIN	4.3%	-115	8	44%	5.2	2.3	5.9
9.7	Justin Steele	L	@ARI	95.3%	-140	8.5	55%	5.4	2.5	5.5
9.6	Zach Eflin	R	@BAL	90.4%	-120	8.5	56%	5.4	2.7	5.1
9.2	Johan Oviedo	R	NYY	14.8%	143	8	44%	5.5	2.4	4.9
8.9	Wade Miley	L	WSH	14.6%	-190	8.5	58%	5.1	2.2	3.9
8.8	Jake Irvin	R	@MIL	4.8%	158	8.5	42%	5.4	2.5	4.8
8.5	Jose Berrios	R	BOS	87.6%	-135	8.5	53%	5.6	3.0	5.1
8.5	Johnny Cueto	R	ATL	1.3%	158	9	43%	5.8	2.8	4.5
8.2	Brandon Pfaadt	R	CHC	3.6%	118	8.5	45%	5.3	2.9	4.9
8.1	Brayan Bello	R	@TOR	28.1%	115	8.5	47%	5.5	2.9	5.0
7.7	Jon Gray	R	@CLE	71.3%	-125	8.5	49%	5.2	2.9	5.0
7.5	Lucas Giolito	R	TEX	75.0%	105	8.5	51%	5.2	3.3	5.9
7.4	Jesse Scholtens	R	MIN	1.4%	150	9	46%	5.2	2.7	4.4
6.7	Sean Newcomb	L	SD	0.7%	175	8.5	39%	3.7	1.4	3.3
6.3	Logan Webb	R	@COL	98.7%	-225	10.5	60%	5.5	4.0	5.4
6.0	Jack Flaherty	R	TB	20.7%	100	8.5	44%	5.1	3.3	5.1
5.4	Zack Thompson	L	PHI	3.2%	118	8.5	32%	5.0	3.1	4.9
4.6	Zack Greinke	R	HOU	2.6%	158	9.5	35%	5.0	3.1	3.4
0.7	Chase Anderson	R	SF	0.5%	185	10.5	40%	3.9	3.7	3.3

Bullpen usage for Friday

Relief Pitcher Usage Chart

This chart lists the pitchers rostered in at least 50% of ESPN leagues who have been most heavily used recently, signaling they might be unavailable today. Rst% is the player's ESPN roster percentage; the listed date is the pitcher's pitch count from the previous day; P3 is the pitcher's total pitch count from the previous three days; Rest is the pitcher's days of rest; Strk is the number of consecutive days the pitcher has worked.

Pitcher	Team	Rst%	9/14	P3	Rest	Strk
David Bednar	PIT	84.7%	10	40	0	2
Devin Williams	MIL	96.4%	11	24	0	1

By Todd Zola

David Bednar collected a save for the second straight day on Thursday, giving him 35 for the season. He threw an efficient 10 pitches yesterday, as opposed to 30 on Wednesday, Bednar has appeared in three consecutive days earlier this season, and there have been several other instances of it happening down the stretch, but it's always occurred with a team in playoff contention. The safe play is reserving Bednar and considering Colin Holderman as his replacement. Holderman did not pitch yesterday and has filled in for Bednar previously this season. His 27 holds are tied for fifth in MLB and he's fanned 56 in 53 1/3 innings.
Devin Williams secured his 34th save yesterday, tossing only 10 pitches in the process. He also saved Tuesday's game, needing only 13 pitches. Williams' usage patterns this season indicate he'll be available tonight when the Milwaukee Brewers open a weekend set at home against the Washington Nationals.
Looking at the teams with the best chance to pad their victory total over the weekend, a doubleheader in Coors Fields gives the Colorado Rockies and San Francisco Giants an extra chance at a win. Of course, trusting any pitcher in Coors Field, even a reliever, is risky. Those behind in the first round of the head-to-head playoffs have just this weekend to make up ground, so taking chances may be needed. Tyler Rogers has 28 holds, and his sidearm delivery yields a 51% groundball rate, so he's the top candidate to add from the Giants. For Colorado, Tyler Kinney has recorded three saves and a hold over the past 15 days while Justin Lawrence has garnered a save and two holds.
The Philadelphia Phillies have a chance to cement their lead atop the National League wild card race with a weekend set in Busch Stadium. Even though they'll be on the road, the Phillies should be favored in all three games against the St, Louis Cardinals. Craig Kimbrel (42% rostered) is the Phillies primary closer, making him the top choice to pick up among closers rostered in fewer than half of all ESPN leagues.

Best Sub-50% Rostered Hitters for Friday

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

Joc Pederson (SF, LF -- 5%) at Chase Anderson
Royce Lewis (MIN, SS -- 42%) at Jesse Scholtens
Mitch Haniger (SF, RF -- 6%) at Chase Anderson
Thairo Estrada (SF, 2B -- 42%) at Chase Anderson
Michael Conforto (SF, RF -- 6%) at Chase Anderson
Mike Yastrzemski (SF, RF -- 7%) at Chase Anderson
LaMonte Wade Jr. (SF, RF -- 9%) at Chase Anderson
J.D. Davis (SF, 3B -- 6%) at Chase Anderson
Max Kepler (MIN, RF -- 7%) at Jesse Scholtens
Jorge Polanco (MIN, 2B -- 48%) at Jesse Scholtens

Worst Over-50% Rostered Hitters for Friday

Elly De La Cruz (CIN, SS -- 82%) at David Peterson
Jonah Heim (TEX, C -- 73%) at Lucas Giolito
Ty France (SEA, 1B -- 63%) vs. Bobby Miller
Tommy Edman (STL, 2B -- 77%) vs. Aaron Nola
J.D. Martinez (LAD, DH -- 71%) at George Kirby
Willson Contreras (STL, C -- 74%) vs. Aaron Nola
Nathaniel Lowe (TEX, 1B -- 87%) at Lucas Giolito
Jonathan India (CIN, 2B -- 67%) at David Peterson
Isaac Paredes (TB, 3B -- 72%) at Jack Flaherty
Spencer Steer (CIN, 3B -- 81%) at David Peterson

THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Today

Prop of the Day

Chase Anderson, Colorado Rockies O/U 2.5 earned runs (+105/-135)

PREDICTION

THE BAT sees Anderson putting up 3.45 Earned Runs for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 61.5% of the time. THE BAT believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $26.16.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER

According to THE BAT's evaluation, Chase Anderson's overall pitching ability is in the 4th percentile out of all SPs in the league right now.
The San Francisco Giants have been the unluckiest offense in the game this year, according to the THE BAT X, and are likely to positively regress the rest of the season
The No. 1 ballpark in the majors for boosting batting average, per the THE BAT, is Coors Field.
Chase Anderson is an extreme flyball pitcher (40.2% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the No. 5 HR venue in MLB today.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER

This contest is projected to have the most suitable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.
Chase Anderson has a large reverse platoon split and has the benefit of facing 6 opposite-handed bats in today's game.