Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Friday's MLB games

ESPN Fantasy

Sep 22, 2023, 01:21 PM

Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

For an in-depth look at what to expect in this daily article and for how to best utilize the information contained within, check out our handy primer here.

Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

What you need to know for Friday's MLB Games

By Todd Zola

Friday's action gets started at 2:20 PM ET with a matinee in Wrigley Field, featuring the Chicago Cubs hosting the Colorado Rockies. The remaining 14 games are all evening affairs.
Andrew Abbott (41.5%) checks in as the slate's top-ranked pitching streamer, but it comes with a word of warning. The ranking is based on his season-long body of work; his recent efforts have been subpar. In most cases, it's best to avoid recency bias, but sometimes young pitchers experience a drop in performance once they've reached an uncharted number of innings. Last season, Abbott tossed a combined 118 innings in the minor leagues. So far this year, the 24-year-old lefty has compiled 156 2/3 frames between the minors and majors. Over his past five starts, Abbott has posted a 6.33 ERA and 1.83 WHIP in 21 1/3 innings. He's still piling up strikeouts with 24 in that span, but 15 walks have increased traffic and runs, not to mention driving up his pitch count. In Abbott's favor is facing a Pittsburgh Pirates lineup walking at an extremely low 6.4% clip against southpaws over the last month while fanning at a generous 27.1% rate in that span.
Next up is another rookie with Sawyer Gipson-Long (8.6%) getting the ball for a road date with the Oakland Athletics. Gipson-Long was promoted in early September and he's made two impressive starts, albeit facing second division lineups with games against the Chicago White Sox and Los Angeles Angels. He punched out 16 in 10 total innings, with 11 coming over five stanzas in Anaheim last time out. The 25-year-old right-hander is in a great spot to open his career with three straight solid outings facing an Oakland offense with the third worst wOBA facing righties over the past month, buoyed by striking out 25% of the time in that stretch.
Friday night is going to be an intriguing start for Cole Ragans (44.7%). The two-time Tommy John surgery recoveree is enjoying a breakout season. He began the year in the Texas Rangers bullpen, but after posting a lackluster 5.92 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 17 appearances as a reliever, he was traded to the Kansas City Royals who optioned him to Triple-A to stretch out as a starter. The move proved prescient as Ragans has registered a sparkling 2.28 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 10 starts, fanning a hefty 76 batters in 59 1/3 innings. In his last outing, Ragans fanned seven with two walks in six innings at home against the Houston Astros. This usually portends a solid outing, but the potent Houston lineup scored five runs. Ragans and the Astros run it back Friday in Minute Maid Park. Ragans' performance in the rotation warrants a spot in a fantasy lineup, but there is clear risk facing Houston in their yard. His high strikeouts and low walks in the prior meeting are encouraging, and enough to keep Ragans active, unless you are in a close ratio battle or are in a league where picking up an alternative is an option.
Switching to hitting, Atlanta Braves catcher Sean Murphy (90.8%) continues to be rostered in almost every ESPN leagues, despite posting a dismal .172/.318/.279 line since the All-Star break. His playing time has been cut back in September, in part due to performance, but also to have him fresh for the playoffs since he's solid defensively. That said, it's best to wait a day before looking elsewhere for a fantasy backstop since he'll be enjoying the platoon edge on Patrick Corbin on Friday. With most of the Atlanta hitters already rostered, Orlando Arcia (30.6%) is the best means of getting some exposure to a potent lineup in a great spot.
Some other hitters in a favorable position to fortify a fantasy lineup include St. Louis Cardinals' Lars Nootbaar (25%) facing San Diego Padres starter Matt Waldron, Pittsburgh Pirates leadoff hitter Ke'Bryan Hayes (22.9%) stepping in the box against the Reds' Abbott and the Reds Jake Fraley (15.1%) drawing Pirates righty Luis Ortiz.

Starting pitcher rankings for Friday

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
14.3	Corbin Burnes	R	@MIA	99.8%	--	--	61%	6.1	2.0	6.5
13.9	Tyler Glasnow	R	TOR	95.0%	-155	7.5	55%	5.7	1.9	6.7
13.3	Framber Valdez	L	KC	99.5%	-235	8	60%	6.2	2.4	6.5
12.2	Andrew Abbott	L	PIT	46.4%	--	--	61%	5.6	2.3	6.1
12.0	Pablo Lopez	R	LAA	97.8%	-267	8	57%	5.8	2.6	6.4
11.8	Chris Bassitt	R	@TB	92.3%	130	7.5	45%	5.9	2.3	5.7
10.2	Sawyer Gipson-Long	R	@OAK	23.1%	-130	7.5	53%	5.0	2.1	5.0
9.9	Charlie Morton	R	@WSH	93.5%	-260	9	63%	5.6	2.8	6.0
9.7	Cole Ragans	L	@HOU	47.5%	192	8	40%	5.2	2.3	5.6
9.7	Brandon Pfaadt	R	@NYY	4.0%	105	--	55%	5.3	2.7	5.3
9.6	Jameson Taillon	R	COL	18.1%	-220	9	54%	5.4	2.6	5.1
9.5	Ryan Yarbrough*	L	SF	3.5%	-170	9.5	59%	4.9	2.0	4.4
9.2	Ken Waldichuk	L	DET	2.7%	110	7.5	47%	5.1	2.3	4.9
9.0	Johnny Cueto	R	MIL	1.2%	--	--	39%	5.7	2.5	4.4
8.9	Sean Manaea	L	@LAD	17.5%	143	9.5	41%	5.3	2.5	5.1
8.9	Taijuan Walker	R	NYM	35.6%	-160	9	57%	5.4	2.7	5.0
8.5	Matt Waldron	R	STL	0.6%	-170	9	57%	5.2	2.5	4.4
8.3	Chris Sale	L	CWS	74.4%	-220	9	50%	4.8	2.6	5.7
8.2	Davis Daniel	R	@MIN	0.2%	215	8	43%	5.2	2.7	4.7
8.0	Shane Bieber	R	BAL	80.1%	-115	8	53%	4.9	2.6	4.8
7.5	Touki Toussaint	R	@BOS	1.6%	180	9	50%	4.7	2.4	4.8
7.3	Noah Davis	R	@CHC	0.1%	180	9	46%	4.6	2.2	4.1
6.9	Tylor Megill	R	@PHI	5.8%	135	9	43%	5.1	2.8	4.8
6.8	Luis L. Ortiz	R	@CIN	0.8%	--	--	39%	5.0	2.6	4.2
6.6	Dakota Hudson	R	@SD	3.0%	143	9	43%	5.2	2.5	3.6
6.3	Dean Kremer	R	@CLE	39.0%	-105	8	47%	5.3	3.2	4.6
6.1	Bryce Miller	R	@TEX	36.0%	115	9	52%	5.2	3.5	4.8
5.6	Luke Weaver	R	ARI	0.5%	-125	--	45%	4.8	3.1	4.5
5.1	Dane Dunning	R	SEA	28.0%	-135	9	48%	5.2	3.7	4.9
3.8	Patrick Corbin	L	ATL	5.0%	210	9	37%	5.2	3.9	4.5

Bullpen usage watch for Friday

Relief Pitcher Usage Chart

This chart lists the pitchers rostered in at least 50% of ESPN leagues who have been most heavily used recently, signaling they might be unavailable today. Rst% is the player's ESPN roster percentage; the listed date is the pitcher's pitch count from the previous day; P3 is the pitcher's total pitch count from the previous three days; Rest is the pitcher's days of rest; Strk is the number of consecutive days the pitcher has worked.

Pitcher	Team	Rst%	9/18	P3	Rest	Strk
Ryan Helsley	STL	54.3%	18	36	0	2
Ryan Pressly	HOU	82.6%	31	31	0	1

Best Sub-50% rostered hitters for Friday

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

Max Kepler (MIN, RF -- 8%) vs. Davis Daniel
TJ Friedl (CIN, LF -- 22%) vs. Luis Ortiz
Jorge Polanco (MIN, 2B -- 49%) vs. Daniel
Joey Votto (CIN, 1B -- 6%) vs. Ortiz
Mike Tauchman (CHC, LF -- 3%) vs. Noah Davis
Lars Nootbaar (STL, RF -- 25%) at Matt Waldron
Jake Fraley (CIN, LF -- 15%) vs. Ortiz
Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT, 3B -- 21%) at Andrew Abbott
Cal Raleigh (SEA, C -- 40%) at Dane Dunning
Seth Brown (OAK, 1B -- 3%) vs. Sawyer Gipson-Long

Worst Over-50% rostered hitters for Friday

Daulton Varsho (TOR, C -- 74%) at Tyler Glasnow
Matt Chapman (TOR, 3B -- 68%) at Glasnow
Bo Bichette (TOR, SS -- 97%) at Glasnow
MJ Melendez (KC, C -- 52%) at Framber Valdez
Josh Bell (MIA, 1B -- 60%) vs. Corbin Burnes
Ty France (SEA, 1B -- 62%) at Dunning
Max Muncy (LAD, 3B -- 93%) vs. Sean Manaea
Kris Bryant (COL, LF -- 57%) at Jameson Taillon
Eloy Jimenez (CHW, LF -- 61%) at Chris Sale
George Springer (TOR, CF -- 95%) at Glasnow

THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Friday

Prop of the Day

Right now, Ken Waldichuk, Athletics, 5.5 strikeouts (+125/-165)

PROJECTION

THE BAT X sees Waldichuk putting up 5.9 strikeouts for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 54.6% of the time. THE BAT X believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $22.94.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER

THE BAT X projects Waldichuk to throw 101 pitches in this matchup (fourth-most on today's slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
The Tigers have three bats in today's projected batting order with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (Jake Rogers, Zack Short, Parker Meadows).
In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast projects the fourth-most suitable pitching conditions on today's slate.
Home-field advantage typically bolsters pitcher stats across the board, and Waldichuk will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER

Todd Tichenor, projected to be a huge hitter's umpire, is scheduled to be behind the plate in today's game.
With seven hitters who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team's projected lineup, Waldichuk faces a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.