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          Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Sunday's MLB games

          Brady Singer of the Kansas City Royals will take the mound on Sunday. Aaron Doster/Getty Images
          • Todd Zola, FantasyMar 31, 2024, 03:14 PM
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            • Writing on fantasy baseball game theory and player analysis since 1997
            • Winner of the 2013 Fantasy Sports Writer's Association Best Baseball Article
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          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file has been updated with overnight pitching changes any weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          Tough decisions

          The first Sunday slate of the season has the typical 14 matinees with the Sunday night ESPN contest capping off the festivities. Action begins at 1:35 PM ET with the Baltimore Orioles hosting the Los Angeles Angels and the Philadelphia Phillies entertaining the Atlanta Braves. The prime time affair features the St. Louis Cardinals visiting the Los Angeles Dodgers.

          One of the running Sunday themes will be making up ground on the last day of the week in head-to-head leagues. Most of the scheduled pitchers are mostly back end starters, with only five rostered in more than 50% of ESPN leagues. Twenty are available in at least 90% of ESPN leagues. This makes for a lot of tough decisions, balancing the risk and reward.

          What you may have missed on Saturday

          • We received our first look at how the Minnesota Twins will handle the absence of Royce Lewis as they installed Willi Castro at third base, hitting him eighth. Castro swiped 33 bases in 38 attempts last season but was caught in his only try yesterday. Also noteworthy is righty swinging Kyle Farmer pinch hit for the left-handed Edoardo Julien with runners at second and third in the top of the ninth. Southpaw Will Smith was on the hill for the Royals. The move worked as Farmer was intentionally walked and scored but the main takeaway is Farmer and Castro will likely be in the Twins lineup when scheduled to face a lefty starter, with Julien on the bench.

          • In that same game, it's interesting to note the Twins brought in Griffin Jax to work the eighth inning of a 1-1 tie. After Jax recorded the first Twins save, it was assumed he would be the closer, but since he came in to face the top of the Royals order, manager Rocco Baldelli may deploy Jax against the better hitters of the opposing team and not dedicate him to the ninth inning. Brock Stewart handled the final three outs, but since Minnesota scored four runs in the top of the ninth, it was a non-save situation, otherwise he would have notched a save.

          • The Boston Red Sox were a bit shorthanded when they faced the Seattle Mariners last night with Rafael Devers sidelined for the second straight game with a sore shoulder. Manager Alex Cora indicated Devers would likely play today but it's worth monitoring lineups as they're reported. In addition, closer Kenley Jansen woke up with a sore back and couldn't get loose, so he was ruled out of last night's contest. His absence was missed as the Red Sox scratched out a pair of runs in the top of the 10th inning to take a 3-1 lead, but the Mariners walked it off after they scored three times against Joely Rodriguez, the last of which was driven in by Julio Rodriguez as he singled off Justin Slaten, a Rule-5 acquisition making his major league debut. Boston hopes Jansen is available today, but since the same thing happened late in the spring, there is concern this could be a lingering issue.

          • Jason Foley captured the first save for the Detroit Tigers on opening day. After Alex Lange was brought into yesterday's game in the seventh, those picking up Foley felt even better about rostering the Tigers closer. However, after Shelby Miller preserved a 6-6 tie against the Chicago White Sox in the bottom of the ninth, the Tigers scored once in the top of the 10th and Miller stayed in the game to essentially save his own victory. Of course, he was only credited with the win, but the usage does suggest that manager A.J. Hinch may not exclusively use Foley as his closer. Miller needed only nine pitches in the ninth, so it made sense for him to stay in the game. After Miller tossed another eight pitches in the 10th, Foley will almost assuredly get the nod if needed today.

          Everything else you need to know for Sunday

          • The day's top ranked starter is Colin Rea (0.5% rostered in ESPN leagues) who will lead the Milwaukee Brewers into Citi Field to challenge the New York Mets. The home team will counter with Tylor Megill (1.6%). Both are in play as spot starters for those looking to pad their stats, mostly due to the cooler temperatures and extreme pitching venue. Rea secured a spot in the Brewers rotation with 19 punch outs in 18⅓ innings. The Mets lineup is without eventual designated hitter who is still perfecting his swing after signing late in spring training. Megill also racked up strikeouts in exhibition play, fanning 23 in 20⅔ Grapefruit League innings.

          • Another matchup involving a pair of fantasy spot starters is in South Beach with Trevor Rogers (3.0%) and the Miami Marlins hosting Bailey Falter (0.2%) and the Pittsburgh Pirates. Falter is projected to notch a little over a point more than Rogers, but I like Rogers a bit more. The lefty is aiming to resurrect a once-promising career that has been curtailed with injuries. He didn't get to display it much before having his 2023 season end after only four starts, but Rogers added a sinker to his repertoire, a pitch which should help him keep the ball in the yard. The Pirates offense is trending upward, but it's still one of the less potent units.

          • Brady Singer (8.4%) is a hurler to watch early in the season. After seemingly breaking through in 2022, Singer took a step back last season. The Kansas City Royals wanted to tweak his pitch mix, but he resisted. However, they got through to him this past offseason and Singer intends on throwing his four seamer and sweeper more than last year. The spring results weren't encouraging with 14 strikeouts and eight walks over 16 stanzas, but that sometime happens when working on something new. The Twins lineup took a hit with Royce Lewis placed on the IL after injuring his quad in the opener.

          • The Orioles lineup versus left-handed pitching appears potent, even though it's much harder to clear the left field fence in Camden Yards. On Sunday, Los Angeles Angels southpaw Reid Detmers will oppose the Orioles, setting up the home team for a productive afternoon. Detmers fanned 24 in 18⅓ spring innings, but he also walked 11. Giving free baserunners to the Orioles is dangerous. Austin Hays (13.6%), Ryan Mountcastle (9.5%) and Jordan Westburg (7.4%) are all widely available, and in a great spot to rack up counting stats.

          • Betting Tip of the Day: The Tampa Bay Rays have outscored the Toronto Blue Jays 15-11 over the first three games of their season-opening four game set in Tropicana Field. Look for the Blue Jays to flip the script today with Kevin Gausman making the start for the visitors facing the opener/primary pitcher combination of Shawn Armstrong and Tyler Alexander. Not only should the Blue Jays win, but both offenses should score, so take the over on 8.5 runs. The Blue Jays predominantly right-handed lineup will face a righty once, then get a couple of chances at Alexander and his 4.72 ERA over the past two seasons. Even though Gausman will start and likely pitch well, he's not stretched out enough to throw more than 80 pitches, so the Rays will get a few chances at a bullpen missing its top two arms with Jordan Romans and Erik Swanson sidelined to begin the season.

          It's not too late to start a free fantasy baseball league. Finish your draft before the first pitch of Sunday night's game and all stats will retroactively count for Week 1. Come and join the fun!

          Starting pitcher rankings for Sunday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Best Sub-50% rostered hitters for Sunday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst Over-50% rostered hitters for Sunday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Today