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          Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Friday's MLB games

          It's been a tough start to 2024 for Zach Eflin and the rest of the Tampa Bay Rays. Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
          • Tristan H. Cockcroft
          Apr 26, 2024, 03:47 PM

          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          Climbing out of the cellar

          In recent memory, struggles have been an unfamiliar experience for the Tampa Bay Rays and manager Kevin Cash.

          Cash's team, since the beginning of 2019, has baseball's fourth-best record (434-300, .591 winning percentage) and is one of just four teams (Atlanta Braves, Los Angeles Dodgers, Houston Astros) to have made the postseason in each of the last five seasons. The Rays, during that five-year (plus one month) span, have spent a collective eight days exclusively in last place in their division: April 7, 2021, May 1, 2021, this March 28, and then from Sunday through Wednesday of this week.

          Fortunately for Cash's crew, they now get baseball's best cure for what ails you -- a series against the Chicago White Sox, who are off to a historically miserable start. And Friday brings us perhaps the series' most lopsided individual matchup (and one that they can build upon as they mount their charge out of the cellar) as Zach Eflin faces Chris Flexen at Chicago's Guaranteed Rate Field.

          Eflin, one of baseball's more underrated starters, is coming off back-to-back scoreless appearances, both of which resulted in no-decisions for the right-hander and tough losses for the team. Since the beginning of last season, his 472 fantasy points are 10th-best among starting pitchers. Nevertheless, 12 other active pitchers who have made at least as many as his 35 starts during that time are rostered in a greater percentage of ESPN leagues, including the less-productive Dylan Cease and Aaron Nola. Eflin, naturally, projects as one of the day's best starters for fantasy.

          It's the Tampa Bay offense that warrants more of the blame for the team's struggles. Two of the team's four highest-scoring fantasy players from 2023, Randy Arozarena and Yandy Diaz, are off to awful starts (Eflin and Isaac Paredes round out the high-scoring quartet).

          Arozarena, due in large part to his penchant for strikeouts, tends to lean toward the streaky side. He did homer on Wednesday, and he did take Flexen deep the only other time he ever faced the right-hander. That's not to say that notoriously small batter-versus-pitcher samples should carry the day, but the homer emphasizes what is an extremely favorable matchup (on paper) for Arozarena.

          Diaz, meanwhile, has been a hint too aggressive thus far in 2024, with a career-high 26.1% chase rate, but he has historically crushed curveballs, batting .341 with nine homers against them in 156 batted-ball events. Flexen, incidentally, in put-away situations has most often gone to -- you guessed it -- the curveball.

          Consider Friday to be the beginning of a "load-'em up" series for Rays in fantasy leagues, despite the fact that both Arozarena (minus-5.4% in the past week) and Diaz (minus-3.3%) have experienced small declines in ESPN roster percentages. The Rays have also placed Amed Rosario (43.5% rostered) in either table-setting or run-producing lineup spots over recent days, even against right-handers, making him a prime pickup.

          What you may have missed on Thursday

          By Todd Zola

          • Walker Buehler made his fifth rehab start for Triple-A Oklahoma City last night, throwing 86 pitches while averaging 94 mph on his fastball. The velocity was only one tick lower than his pre-Tommy John level. Keep in mind that the game was a road tilt against Triple-A Alburquerque in one of the friendliest hitting environments in the minor leagues, so it's still promising that Buehler yielded three earned runs on seven hits over four innings, with five strikeouts and two walks. Buehler could join the Los Angeles Dodgers rotation early next week.

          • The Seattle Mariners put J.P. Crawford on the IL due to a Grade 1 right oblique strain. The club is hoping for a short visit, with Dylan Moore expected to fill in at shortstop in Crawford's absence.

          • Nolan Jones missed his second straight game on Thursday as he's dealing with a sore back. Hunter Goodman filled in and hit a three-run homer in the eighth inning of yesterday's come-from-behind win that saw the Colorado Rockies score six times in the eighth inning in a 10-9 win over the San Diego Padres. Goodman was recalled on Wednesday after posting a .298/.352/.690 line for Triple-A Albuquerque. As mentioned, this is a very favorable hitting venue, but Goodman has always exhibited power -- contact has been his issue. Goodman's improved 20.9% strikeout rate was just as impressive as his 1.042 OPS.

          • One day after Joel Payamps recorded his fourth save, Milwaukee Brewers manager Pat Murphy brought Payamps into the eighth inning yesterday, then called upon Trevor Megill for the save. Both relievers delivered in the 7-5 victory against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Payamps faced the bottom third of the Pirates order, so it wasn't a matter of matchups. This appears to be a committee scenario, without a favorite.

          Everything else you need to know for Friday

          • Here's a friendly reminder that the Colorado Rockies and the Astros, who play in Mexico this weekend, are both off Friday, as a result of the additional travel involved. Also, from a bookkeeping perspective, the series opener for the series between the Kansas City Royals at the Detroit Tigers is a day game -- Friday's only one -- with a 1:10 p.m. ET scheduled start.

          • One thing you might immediately notice is the unfavorable (at least relative to his positional brethren) projection for Boston Red Sox RHP Kutter Crawford, the highest-scoring performer to date among those scheduled to start Friday. There are two primary reasons: Projections account for the pitcher's historic performance, during which Crawford's 4.26 ERA as a starter over the last two years is worse than league-average (that's 4.24) and a Chicago Cubs matchup -- despite the team currently missing Cody Bellinger (ribs, 10-day IL) -- grades out at below-average for pitchers. That said, Crawford's adjustments, most notably his addition of a sweeper which Statcast grades as three runs above average, make him a better pitcher than his track record says, although such adjustments aren't something easily threaded through projection systems. Crawford is performing at a level that meets my "juice the orange" description. You always stick with the scorching-hot hand, no matter what the numbers on paper say (and I'm not even sure this orange will entirely run dry of juice in 2024).

          • The Miami Marlins had the Washington Nationals' number in 2023, winning 11 out of 13 meetings. Ace Jesus Luzardo has been scratched thanks to a sore elbow, so the Marlins will go with a bullpen game, starting with Anthony Maldonado making his MLB debut, likely followed by Kyle Tyler. Marlins batters have a favorable matchup with Trevor Williams being the opposing starter. The projections have the Nationals being 4% weaker offensively against left- than right-handers, and their best, Lane Thomas, is currently on the IL. Williams did meet the quality-start threshold in both of his career starts at Miami's loanDepot Park (both in 2023), but he's historically poor against left-handed hitters (fourth-worst .372 wOBA allowed since the beginning of 2022). It's a good day to lean into the Marlins' typical top five of Luis Arraez, Bryan De La Cruz, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Josh Bell and Jesus Sanchez.

          • Betting tip of the day: It might be a longshot, but I like San Francisco Giants left-handed hitters against Pittsburgh Pirates RHP Quinn Priester, who to this point of his career has struggled mightily against that side of the plate (.336/.425/.701, a 4.3% greater fly-ball rate, and 10 of his 15 HR allowed). Michael Conforto to hit a home run (+650) stands out, not only as the Giants' top left-handed power source, but also this pitch-specific fact: He's a lifetime .315/.422/.564 hitter who averages one homer per 16.5 at-bats against sinkers, which, lo and behold, is Priester's go-to pitch (34.3% usage).

          It's not too late to start a free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday. Come and join the fun!

          Starting pitcher rankings for Friday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Best Sub-50% rostered hitters for Friday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst Over-50% rostered hitters for Friday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Friday