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          Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Tuesday's MLB games

          The Houston Astros will call up top hitting prospect Joey Loperfido. Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
          • Eric Karabell, ESPN Senior WriterApr 30, 2024, 03:49 PM
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            • Fantasy baseball, football and basketball analyst for ESPN
            • Charter member of FSWA Hall of Fame
            • Author of "The Best Philadelphia Sports Arguments"
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          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          Astronomical minor league stats

          The Houston Astros remain in last place in the AL West heading into Tuesday's game against Cleveland, even behind the Athletics. While pitching (4.92 ERA) has been a bigger problem than the offense, here comes a jolt of energy in the form of slugger Joey Loperfido, leading the minor leagues with 13 home runs in 25 games (with 28 RBI, 31 runs) for Triple-A Sugar Land. Loperfido, a left-handed hitter who was a seventh-round pick in the 2021 draft from Duke, is slugging .713 (1.106 OPS) and expected to earn promotion Tuesday.

          Veteran first baseman Jose Abreu, of course, is not slugging anywhere near .713 - he has one extra-base hit in 77 PA, and he is "hitting" .099/.156/.113 - so it seems likely Loperfido will slot into first base. Abreu, 37, has arguably been the worst position player in baseball this season, supplying a minus-1.6 WAR. Alas, Loperfido, 24, cannot slot in as the team's No. 4 starter, too, but hey, perhaps the Astros can outscore more teams. They scored 20 runs in two games against the pathetic Rockies in the rarified air of Mexico City this past weekend.

          Loperfido, due to his gaudy numbers, is one of the most added prospects in ESPN standard leagues, up 4.5% over the past seven days to 5.6%, and this number will precipitously rise in the coming days. He played 21 games at second base last season and carries valuable OF/2B fantasy eligibility, so slide him into that infield position, though the Astros are set there with Jose Altuve. Loperfido may remind some of Cubs OF/1B Cody Bellinger, another tall, rangy, left-handed slugger who excels in center field and at first base, as Loperfido has this season. Loperfido is also 5-for-5 on stolen base attempts. The Astros could play Loperfido in center field, too, giving 1B Jon Singleton -- or Abreu -- more chances.

          The Astros send RHP Hunter Brown to the mound Tuesday against RHP Carlos Carrasco, making potential bettors check the over/under on runs. This should favor the Astros, as Carrasco, 37, has yet to deliver a quality start among his five chances, though Brown, one of the top pitching prospects in the game a year ago, has achieved this only once in 2024. Brown's 9.68 ERA and 2.49 WHIP are a bit misleading, with most of the damage coming in a frightful first inning at Kansas City on April 11, when he permitted an MLB-record 11 hits (and nine runs) without escaping the first inning. In his other four starts, Brown has a 5.29 ERA. It's not good, but more palatable.

          What you may have missed on Monday

          By Todd Zola

          • The Cincinnati Reds played shorthanded again last night with C Tyler Stephenson and 1B Christian Encarnacion-Strand both nursing hand injuries. They were both available off the bench, but neither was needed in the Reds' 5-2 road win over the San Diego Padres. Their availability suggests a return later this week. Santiago Espinal, filling in for Encarnacion-Strand, knocked in a pair of runs. Nick Lodolo continued his dominating start to the season with seven innings of one-run ball, fanning 11.

          • Another hand injury of note befell SS Tim Anderson of the Miami Marlins, who hurt his thumb covering second base on a double by Washington Nationals OF Alex Call in the third inning. Anderson completed the frame but was taken out afterwards. As part of the move, Marlins manager Skip Schumaker removed Jesus Sanchez from the contest for what was deemed, "lack of effort" on Call's double. Sanchez lost the ball in the lights, but Schumaker wasn't happy with Sanchez's effort after the miscue. It was termed a "teaching moment" with Sanchez not expected to receive further "punishment."

          • Minnesota Twins closer Jhoan Duran is slated to make his 2024 debut today. He was with the club yesterday but was not activated. Manager Rocco Baldelli indicated Duran would join the active roster today, but it isn't clear if Duran will move right back into ninth-inning duties. Baldelli has been using a closer committee to open the season. Last night, Caleb Thielbar saved the Twins' 3-2 road win against the Chicago White Sox. Griffin Jax, who leads the team with four saves, pitched the eighth inning to collect the win. Cole Sands and Steven Okert also garnered saves during Duran's absence.

          • Salvador Perez was scratched by the Kansas City Royals last night. The veteran catcher's back tightened up, so Freddy Fermin started behind the place with Nelson Velazquez taking over the cleanup spot. Both delivered, with Fermin clubbing a home run and Velazquez contributing a two-out RBI double. Perez pinch hit for Fermin in the ninth inning. He singled, sending Bobby Witt Jr. to third base, but Nate Pearson fanned Michael Massey to seal the Toronto Blue Jays' 6-5 victory in the Rogers Centre. Blue Jays closer Jordan Romano had pitched on Saturday and Sunday, so he was unavailable last night.

          • Fans of pitching were treated to a gem last night with both starters tossing six hitless stanzas. Atlanta Braves southpaw Max Fried was taken out after his six innings while Bryce Miller of the Seattle Mariners lost his no-hit bid on a Ronald Acuna Jr. infield single in the seventh. Acuna stole second and third, then scored on a double by Ozzie Albies. Miller punched out 11 over his seven innings but was on the hook for the loss before Mitch Garver's two-run walk-off homer in the bottom of the ninth. After four starts, Fried's ERA was 7.71, but it's now down to 4.02 after tossing 15 straight scoreless frames.

          Everything else you need to know for Tuesday

          • Yesterday's postponement in Motown will be made up today with the Detroit Tigers and St. Louis Cardinals playing a single admission doubleheader, with the opener slated for 3:40 PM ET. The Cardinals will send RHP Kyle Gibson and LHP Steven Matz to the hill, limiting the likelihood of any available Tigers batter to play in both games. However, the lefty-swinging Cardinals hitters will face a pair of righties with Detroit handing the ball to Jack Flaherty and Matt Manning. Lars Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan and Nolan Gorman are the primary hitters to target today.

          • Boston Red Sox SS Vaughn Grissom is expected to come off the injured list for Tuesday's home game with the Giants. Grissom, yet to debut this season due to a hamstring injury, had four hits for Triple-A Worcester on Sunday, and he should slide right into Boston's second base slot, likely near the bottom of the lineup versus right-handed pitching. Grissom, 23, hit .287 over 236 PA for Atlanta over the past two seasons, and he hit better than .300 in each of the past three minor league seasons. He is available in more than 80% of ESPN standard leagues.

          • Atlanta RHP Reynaldo Lopez brings his remarkable, league-leading 0.72 ERA to Seattle to face Mariners ace Luis Castillo in one of the later games of the day. Lopez has supplied six or more innings in each of his four outings, and he has permitted only two earned runs, though he was won only twice. Sure, Lopez has been a bit fortunate with a .218 BABIP, one of the best among starting pitchers, but a 26.1% strikeout rate shines. Fantasy managers should stop worrying about what happens in August/September, since Lopez last pitched 70 innings in a season in 2019. Things are great today! Enjoy it against a Mariners lineup near the bottom with 3.7 runs scored per game.

          • The Rockies head to Miami for a matchup of last-place teams, and Colorado's outfield situation warrants attention. Nolan Jones, one of only five players to hit at least .290 with 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases a year ago, is hitting .170 this season with one home run and two steals. He left Sunday's loss with back stiffness, after missing a pair of games earlier in the week. It is possible Jones, down to 52.2% rostered, needs an IL stint. If so, OF Jordan Beck is expected to earn his first MLB promotion. The Rockies recently promoted OF/1B Hunter Goodman and OF Sean Bouchard. All three produced excellent numbers at Triple-A. We don't often recommend Rockies hitters for road games -- and we're not doing it here, either! -- but watch how this situation evolves.

          • Betting tip of the day: This one is in Miami, not Denver, but take the over 7.5 runs (-125) when Rockies RHP Ryan Feltner and Marlins RHP opener Sixto Sanchez square off. Feltner has a 6.46 road ERA this season, in case you were thinking he is a viable streamer, and a 5.47 road ERA for his career. Sanchez has a 7.20 ERA this season in 10 innings, but he is not missing bats and will not last long, leaving a struggling Miami bullpen to handle seven innings. Sanchez under 2.5 strikeouts (+225) feels promising and not so risky, too.

          Starting pitcher rankings for Tuesday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Best Sub-50% rostered hitters for Tuesday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst Over-50% rostered hitters for Tuesday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Tuesday