<
        >

          Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Saturday's MLB games

          Mets veteran lefty Sean Manaea is the top streaming option on Saturday. Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire
          • Todd Zola, FantasyJun 1, 2024, 03:40 PM
            Close
            • Writing on fantasy baseball game theory and player analysis since 1997
            • Winner of the 2013 Fantasy Sports Writer's Association Best Baseball Article
            Follow on X

          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file has been updated with overnight pitching changes and weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          Slim Pickings

          The first thing I do when researching the slate when it's my turn in this space is review the streaming candidates, hopefully finding one to feature in the introductory first few paragraphs. Saturday's ledger seemed odd in that there is an abundance of probable pitchers with a rostership over 50%, which is the cutoff we use to identify options to pick up. Only 13 of Saturday's 30 probable starters have a rostership below 50%. That seems low.

          Currently, there are 162 starting pitchers with a rostership level of at least 1%. This makes sense since there are around 150 starting pitchers active in a fantasy week and many fantasy teams stash injured hurlers on the IL. Of the 162, only 62 are rostered in at least half of ESPN leagues, indicating that on average, 62% of that day's probable starters should pass the rostership criteria for pickup. On Saturday, just 43% satisfy the filter.

          Breaking it down further, only 16.7% of starters are rostered in 90% of leagues. Just 20.4% are at least 80%.

          On the other end, 32.7% of starters are rostered in fewer than 10% of ESPN leagues. Just under half meet the 20% requirement.

          It's fair to consider pitchers with the higher rostership levels not surpassing the cutoff to be the better options, but only 13.6% of starters range between 20% and 50% rostership. This leaves 17.9% in the 50%-80% range, where it's worth taking the time to check on the availability of the starter.

          These percentages opened my eyes. While I don't stream blindly in ESPN leagues, my decisions are more on a day-to-day basis. Admittedly, in head-to-head leagues, there have been weekends where I rued not being more aggressive earlier in the week. If I was behind, the available options to make up ground were not warm and fuzzy.

          Here are my takeaways. On each slate, it's important to note the number and quality of streaming options. There is a fixed number of pitchers available to pick up, and even fewer with a quality matchup. Don't hesitate to use multiple favorable spot starters early in the week, even if it means reserving a closer or setup man.

          Later in the week, when you usually stream starters, instead deploy an extra reliever or two. If the supply of early week starters is high, but the quality is poor, that means there will be fewer quality options later in the week. You'll have to look at least a day ahead to acquire the better options before your competition.

          What you may have missed on Friday

          By Todd Zola

          • Kansas City Royals SP Michael Wacha was in a walking boot following last night's 11-8 loss to the San Diego Padres. Wacha was hit in the foot by a 90-mph line drive in the first inning but stayed in the game to log 5 1/3 innings, yielding two runs on five hits and a walk while fanning a pair. Wacha left with the lead, but the Royals bullpen imploded in the later innings. He's slated for testing today. If Wacha is forced to miss any starts, the Royals may recall Daniel Lynch IV who made an emergency start for the club earlier in the week when SP Brady Singer was scratched with an illness.

          • Initially, when OF Daulton Varsho wasn't in the Toronto Blue Jays lineup last night, it was assumed he was on the bench with the visiting Pittsburgh Pirates starting southpaw Bailey Falter. After the game, it was revealed that lefty-swinging Varsho is dealing with food poisoning. His availability for today against righty SP Mitch Keller is unclear. Blue Jays RP Jordan Romero was unavailable for last night's contest as he's day-to-day with a sore elbow.

          • Los Angeles Angels 1B Nolan Schanuel was a late scratch last night with a sore left thumb. Schanuel was an on-base machine last season as he progressed through the Angels system, which included a September call-up where he posted a .402 OBP in 29 games for the Angels. This season, Schanuel's OBP is just .294 as his strikeout rate has ballooned while his walk rate has cratered. Schanuel's availability for today is unknown. Yesterday, DH Willie Calhoun filled in at first base, with C Matt Thais serving as the DH.

          • Following up a note from yesterday, Arizona Diamondbacks SP was placed on the 15-day IL with a right hamstring strain. He aggravated an injury first suffered on April 26. No timetable has been established, but since this is a lingering issue, it makes sense for the Diamondbacks to allow their ace ample time to fully heal. The club recalled SP Slade Cecconi to take Gallen's spot in the rotation.

          • It was a double dose of bad news for the Baltimore Orioles as they announced both SP John Means and SP Tyler Wells require UCL surgery. It's unclear whether either will need Tommy John surgery or the internal brace procedure, but both will be out for the remainder of the season. Short-term, SP Albert Suarez will remain in the rotation, at least until SP Dean Kremer returns. Kremer is out with sore triceps but hopes to return in a week or two. The Orioles are known for the bevy of hitting prospects, but they also have SP Cade Povich and SP Chayce McDermott toiling for Triple-A Norfolk. Povich is the better prospect, though McDermott is older and could be summoned for a spot start if necessary. On the field, 2B/3B Jordan Westburg missed his second straight game yesterday as he's nursing a sore right hand after being hit by a pitch last Tuesday. He remains questionable for today's AL East matinee against the Tampa Bay Rays.

          • Last night, the Cleveland Guardians welcomed back OF Steven Kwan, slotting him back at leadoff. Kwan responded with a 3-for-4 effort, scoring twice with an RBI.

          Everything else you need to know for Saturday

          • Don't fret; a few of the 13 possible streamers are worth considering. Action begins a bit later with the first game commencing at 3:07 p.m. ET. Nine more matinees follow in the 4:00 p.m. ET hour, leaving five contests under the lights.

          • The New York Mets host the Arizona Diamondbacks with the day's top-ranked streamer, Sean Manaea (17.8% rostered in ESPN leagues) taking the hill. Manaea posted a 3.27 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in May, ringing up 17 while walking just four in four outings, spanning 22 frames. The visitors pose a challenge with the best road wOBA facing southpaws, but pitcher-friendly Citi Field should mitigate the Diamondbacks success facing left-handers.

          • Milwaukee Brewers rookie Robert Gasser (12.2% rostered) is ranked just below Manaea. Gasser enjoys a home date with the Chicago White Sox. Gasser is coming off the best start of his young career, fanning seven Chicago Cubs with no walks in six scoreless stanzas. In four career starts, Gasser has a pair of six-inning shutout efforts. Calling for a third is optimistic, though the White Sox are last with an average of 2.8 runs per game, which includes being blanked nine times.

          • The Cleveland Guardians have spun their magic again as Ben Lively (12.8% rostered) is quietly sporting a 2.80 ERA and 1.18 WHIP with a respectable 43 strikeouts to 14 walks in 45 stanzas. On Saturday, Lively has a favorable home matchup with the Washington Nationals. The visitors will tote the 10th lowest wOBA facing righties into Progressive Field.

          • There is always risk streaming an opposing pitcher in Fenway Park, but Reese Olson (22.8%) is in a groove, putting the Detroit Tigers starter in play. His success is due to yielding only one homer in 56 frames. For all its offensive exploits, Fenway Park suppresses power. To wit, the Boston Red Sox sport the fifth lowest home run rate for home games with a righty on the hill.

          • Betting Tip of the Day: The Cleveland Guardians host the Washington Nationals in an interleague affair. The Guardians are third in scoring, averaging 5.14 runs per game and it's been higher over the last two weeks. Ben Lively will be on the hill for the Guardians and he's yielded two or fewer runs in six of his eight starts, giving up just three runs in the other two outings. Supporting Lively is the bullpen with the lowest ERA in the league. I'll take Cleveland and the Run Line -1.5 (+135).

          It's not too late to start a free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday. Come and join the fun!

          Starting pitcher rankings for Saturday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Hitting report

          Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.

          Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Saturday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Saturday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Today