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          Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Tuesday's MLB games

          Jordan Montgomery has struggled this season but might be worth the risk to start Tuesday. Photo by Adam Hunger/Getty Images
          • Todd Zola, FantasyJun 11, 2024, 01:52 PM
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            • Writing on fantasy baseball game theory and player analysis since 1997
            • Winner of the 2013 Fantasy Sports Writer's Association Best Baseball Article
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          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file has been updated with overnight pitching changes and weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          Catching up

          Recently, San Francisco Giants SP Blake Snell stated that part of his early season woes were due to missing the bulk of spring training. Chances are, the same is true for Arizona Diamondbacks SP Jordan Montgomery, especially since he changed agents after finally inking a one-year contract. Montgomery hasn't dealt with health issues, but he has yet to get in a groove after signing late and falling behind in extended spring training.

          Montgomery has made nine starts, so whatever residual rust should be knocked off, but he has been unable to return to form thus far this season. The lefty's last two outings have been terrible, as Montgomery has yielded 14 earned runs on 17 hits in only six combined innings, fanning only five while issuing six walks over that span.

          Montgomery's four-seam and two-seam fastballs are both down about a tick and a half, with a resulting steep decline in strikeout rate from 21.5% last season to 13.8% so far in 2024. His command and control have also suffered.

          Montgomery's 6.60 ERA is pegged a couple of runs too high by its estimators, but a mark in the mid-to-high fours is still well above average.

          Montgomery is already someone who doesn't merit a full-time roster spot in standard ESPN 10-team leagues. When he debuted on April 19, he was rostered in around 82% of ESPN leagues. That has plummeted to just over half.

          Montgomery should be a no-brainer to start at home against the Los Angeles Angels but sitting him is defensible. The drop in velocity is worrisome. Even so, I'm aggressive, so I'm starting with him. Your team, your call.

          What you may have missed on Monday

          • Houston Astros C Yainer Diaz missed last night's 4-3 extra-inning loss to the San Francisco Giants. Diaz was hit in the throwing hand with a foul tip in Sunday's contest and was still experiencing soreness, though manager Joe Espada indicated Diaz was able to pinch hit if needed. Diaz stayed on the bench the entire game, with C Victor Caratini handling backstop duties. Before the game, OF Kyle Tucker was seen walking without crutches, generating optimism he'll be activated from the 10-day IL on Friday, the first day he's eligible. Tucker has been nursing a bruised shin.

          • Colorado Rockies regular C Elias Diaz had to exit last night's affair after the first inning. He hurt his left calf running out a ground ball. He was replaced behind the plate by backup C Jacob Stallings, with C/OF Hunter Goodman available in an emergency. Diaz is slated for evaluation today. If he misses any action, Stallings and Goodman will fill in. The Rockies will begin a 10-day homestand on Friday.

          • The New York Yankees welcomed OF Juan Soto back to their lineup last night. The slugger missed the weekend set with the Los Angeles Dodgers due to forearm inflammation, but he was able to serve as the DH in the road opener against the Kansas City Royals. Soto went 1-for-3 with a walk and a run scored in the 4-2 win. With Soto occupying DH, Giancarlo Stanton had the night off, as did OF Aaron Judge. It was Judge's first time resting this season.

          • Yankees manager Aaron Boone also kept 1B Anthony Rizzo on the bench for the second straight game, as Rizzo is in a 1-for-29 slump. With Yankees closer Clay Holmes needing a day to recover after throwing 24 pitches to lock down Sunday night's win, Michael Tonkin delivered his first save of the season.

          • Kansas City SP Seth Lugo managed to throw seven frames against the less-potent Yankees lineup, but he still yielded four runs. The Royals were also playing a man down after OF Hunter Renfroe left in the third inning following his fouling a pair of pitches off his left foot. After the game, it was revealed that Renfroe has a broken left big toe. He's likely to require an IL stint, and OF Dairon Blanco is the likely replacement, although OF Nelson Velazquez and 2B/OF Adam Frazier could also see action in right.

          • The Baltimore Orioles were shorthanded with OF Kyle Stowers and OF Austin Hays both held out of Monday's AL East affair in St. Petersburg against the Tampa Bay Rays. Stowers is experiencing wrist soreness and Hays is nursing sore ribs. The Orioles enjoyed a 1-0 lead after SS Gunnar Henderson deposited the first pitch of the game into the stands for his 21st homer, going on to win 5-2.

          Everything else you need to know for Tuesday

          • The Chicago White Sox are calling up prospect SP Drew Thorpe (3.5% rostered in ESPN leagues) for his major league debut, and he will face the Seattle Mariners on the road in pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park. Thorpe was the centerpiece the White Sox acquired from the San Diego Padres in the Dylan Cease deal. Thorpe spent the early part of the season with Double-A Birmingham, where he recorded a sparkling 1.35 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in 11 starts, spanning 60 innings. However, he only fanned 56, which is light for a 23-year-old at that level. That said, on Tuesday, Thorpe takes on a Mariners lineup with the league's highest strikeout rate, so he is in play as a streamer.

          • Normally, we stick to a 50% rostership maximum when identifying spot starters, but Tuesday isn't ideal for those looking to fortify their pitching. As such, Thorpe's mound foe, Bryan Woo (58.2% rostered) deserves a mention since he is just over the cut-off. It's surprising that Woo is available in over 40% of leagues after posting four straight quality starts, three of the scoreless variety. Furthermore, Woo hasn't issued any walks in this 24-inning stretch and has struck out 16.

          • My favorite spot starter on Tuesday's docket is Tylor Megill (7.0%), as he takes the hill at Citi Field for the opener of a set between the New York Mets and Miami Marlins. Megill has 20 strikeouts to just six walks over his last three starts, covering 17 frames. The Marlins fan at a below-average clip, but they tote the second-lowest wOBA in the league into the game's top pitching venue.

          • Betting tip of the day: Scoring remains down, as the average 2024 fly ball distance has been shorter relative to recent seasons, resulting in fewer homers and more fly ball outs. Last night, only one of the seven games hit the over, and it took the Seattle Mariners scoring eight runs over the final two frames to get it done. I'm going to stay with the trend when the Arizona Diamondbacks host the Los Angeles Angels tonight and take under 9.5 runs scored (+110).

          It's never too late to start a free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday. Come and join the fun!

          Starting pitcher rankings for Tuesday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Hitting report

          Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.

          Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Tuesday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Tuesday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Tuesday