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          Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Thursday's MLB games

          Following a rough rookie season, Jake Irvin is quietly having a sloid sophomore campaign. AP Photo/Steve Nesius
          • Eric Karabell, ESPN Senior WriterJul 4, 2024, 01:30 PM
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            • Fantasy baseball, football and basketball analyst for ESPN
            • Charter member of FSWA Hall of Fame
            • Author of "The Best Philadelphia Sports Arguments"
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          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          Morning fireworks

          Major League Baseball celebrates America's Independence Day with a full slate of games, rare for any in-season Thursday, and the first one begins in the nation's capital at 11 a.m. ET. That's right, daily leaguers and brunch-time watchers, we have morning baseball!

          Washington Nationals RHP Jake Irvin earns the honors of throwing the first pitch, likely to New York Mets SS Francisco Lindor, one of the top leadoff hitters in the league. How these gentlemen reached this point, where they open this special day's proceedings, is interesting.

          Irvin continues to delight as one of baseball's surprising success stories among starting pitchers, posting a 3.03 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in his second season, after winning only three of 24 starts with a 4.61 ERA and 1.42 WHIP as a rookie. He looked rather overwhelmed last season, a nominal innings eater with little fantasy value. Walk rate is the key for Irvin, as he walked 10% of hitters as a rookie. This season, he is at 5%, having introduced a cutter to deal with left-handed hitters. Irvin is 17th in ERA among qualifiers and 25th in FIP, and it all appears legit and quite valuable.

          Meanwhile, Lindor deserves kudos as well. The veteran hit .197 in April, typifying New York's disappointing start, but things changed when manager Carlos Mendoza moved him into the leadoff spot. Lindor is hitting .302/.362/.527 in this role, posting the No. 6 wOBA for leadoff hitters (minimum 150 PA). His walk rate is down but his hard-hit rate is up, and his aggressive approach is working. Lindor did not lead off in any games last season. Now he is entrenched in the role, keying the team's offensive rejuvenation, along with new DH J.D. Martinez.

          Irvin and Lindor appear to have little in common, one a tall, Minnesota-born, Oklahoma-educated hurler carving out a positive career few deemed likely and still available in 60% of ESPN standard formats, and the other a popular, Puerto-Rican born switch-hitter who has reminded everyone of his extensive talents and his likely Hall of Fame path. These inspiring fellows will get a full day of baseball started on Thursday morning on what should be an awesome day for the sport.

          What you may have missed on Wednesday

          By Todd Zola

          • Los Angeles Angels 2B Luis Rengifo had to leave last night's contest in the ninth inning after fouling a ball off his foot. His status for Thursday's holiday matinee is unclear. Rengifo was one of the first half's most pleasant surprises, checking in as the No. 4 second baseman on the ESPN Player Rater.

          • Pittsburgh Pirates SP Jared Jones left last night's game after five innings with a right lat strain. Jones limited the St. Louis Cardinals to one run, scattering four hits and two walks while fanning five. After the game, Jones indicated he could have stayed in, but the club opted for the safe route with half of their prized rookie pitching tandem. Jones' availability for his next start is up in the air. The Pirates outlasted the Cardinals, winning 5-4 in 10 innings. Aroldis Chapman picked up the win, throwing two innings with three strikeouts. He allowed the free runner to score in the 10th, but Oneil Cruz raised the Jolly Roger with a walk-off single in the bottom of the frame. Chapman has pitched well while RP David Bednar has been on the IL with an oblique strain. The lefty has two saves and last night's win in this span, fanning eight over six stanzas. Bednar is making progress but has been limited to long toss. The club hopes he can return before the All-Star break.

          • Texas Rangers SS Corey Seager returned to the lineup last night, doubling in four at-bats after missing the two previous games. Seager's effort fell short as the Rangers fell 6-4 to the San Diego Padres. It was another disappointing outing for SP Jon Gray. Since returning to the rotation following an IL stint for a groin injury, Gray has posted a 9.00 ERA and 1.76 WHIP over 21 frames. Before the injury, Gray was sporting a 2.21 ERA and 1.19 WHIP with 56 strikeouts and only two homers allowed in 57 stanzas. Since, Gray has surrendered six long balls. Before the game, manager Bruce Bochy reported that 3B Josh Jung was going to be shut down for a week in his recovery from wrist surgery, delaying his return until after the All-Star break.

          • The Minnesota Twins placed 3B Royce Lewis on the 10-day IL with a Grade 2 right adductor strain. Lewis is slated to be reevaluated after the All-Star break, though the expectation is that he won't return until late July. To fill Lewis' roster spot, the Twins prompted top prospect Brooks Lee. The 23-year-old is a shortstop by trade, but he could help at the hot corner. In 20 games with Triple-A St. Paul, Lee posted a dazzling .329/.394/.635 line.

          • The Toronto Blue Jays announced that RP Jordan Romano had arthroscopic surgery on his right elbow on Tuesday for an impingement. Romano has been experiencing lingering elbow woes since the spring. His availability for the rest of the season is in jeopardy. Chad Green will continue to close, though there is optimism regarding RP Yimi Garcia, as Garcia appears ready to embark on a rehab assignment. It's unclear how the club will handle late-inning duties once Garcia returns, likely right before the break.

          Everything else you need to know for Thursday

          • Philadelphia Phillies LHP Cristopher Sanchez, buoyed with a surprise recent contract extension, leads all of Thursday's scheduled starters in ESPN fantasy points over the past 30 days. Sanchez has permitted nary a run in his past two outings, one which was a three-hit, nine-strikeout shutout against the Miami Marlins, and the only home run he has allowed this season came in April. The Chicago Cubs, already one of the lesser offenses in the sport, struggle against left-handed pitching with a .304 OBP. Perhaps news of Sanchez emerging as an ace remains muted, as he is rostered in a mere 57% of ESPN standard leagues.

          • Cincinnati Reds RHP Frankie Montas, quite the inconsistent performer this season, gets a road matchup against the New York Yankees, the team that employed him for a mere eight starts in late 2022 and the entirety of last season, when shoulder problems limited him to one relief appearance. Montas is healthy today, but he has been unable to miss bats with the same frequency he used to with the Athletics. Even with his extra motivation of facing his former team, this is not a strong matchup against Aaron Judge, Juan Soto and pals. In brief action, current Yankees are 10-for-26 against Montas, and C Jose Trevino homered off him.

          • Thursday's latest scheduled game is in L.A., where Los Angeles Dodgers rookie RHP Landon Knack looks to continue his relative success as he faces the Arizona Diamondbacks. Knack has been stingy with runs in his six starts, permitting only seven of them in sum, but the Dodgers limit his pitches/innings, and he has earned only one win. Knack remains valuable for fantasy managers in points leagues, averaging 13.5 fantasy points over his past two outings. For perspective, injured Dodgers RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto averages 13.4 fantasy points per outing this season. Landon just may have a knack -- sorry but not sorry -- for helping fantasy managers.

          It's never too late to start a free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday. Come and join the fun!

          Starting pitcher rankings for Thursday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Hitting report

          Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.

          Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Thursday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and lots more.

          Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Thursday

          The BAT X's Best Stacks for Thursday