<
        >

          Pitcher rankings, lineup help: Ray, Glasnow return to action

          Tyler Glasnow returns to action for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Kiyoshi Mio-USA TODAY Sports
          • Tristan H. Cockcroft
          Jul 24, 2024, 03:01 PM

          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          Rivals and (injury) returnees

          Wednesday's San Francisco Giants-Los Angeles Dodgers game isn't merely a matchup of longtime rivals, dating back to their days playing in New York in the late 19th century. It also marks the returns of two prominent names in fantasy baseball, starting pitchers Robbie Ray of the Giants and Tyler Glasnow of the Dodgers.

          Ray, the 2021 American League Cy Young Award winner who hasn't thrown a major league pitching since undergoing Tommy John surgery on May 3, 2023, will be activated off the 60-day injured list after making 10 minor league rehabilitation appearances. The past two were his most impressive, totaling 10 1/3 shutout innings of two-hit baseball with 16 strikeouts, during which he boosted his pitch count to 78 on July 19.

          Glasnow, whose 15.6 fantasy points per start since the beginning of 2019 ranks fifth-best among pitchers with at least 20 starts, will be activated off the 15-day injured list after missing 18 days due to lower back tightness. He threw a three-inning, 58-pitch simulated game last Friday, after which he received positive reports on his health.

          Neither pitcher should be expected to work deep into his outing, detracting from either's fantasy appeal in this particular matchup. Pitch counts of 80-85 for Ray and 70-75 for Glasnow seem like reasonable estimates, and the projections reflect those workloads. But both pitchers are well worth closely watching, however, to ensure their raw stuff looks as it did pre-injury and might set them up for strong second halves.

          Glasnow's matchup is the clear superior of the two. The Giants represent an above-average, and nearly top-10, matchup for an opposing pitcher, and their 3.63 runs per game average in July is eighth-worst in the majors. The Dodgers, meanwhile, are a bottom-five matchup for an opposing pitcher, even if they have averaged a middling 4.50 runs per game thus far in the month.

          Fantasy managers evaluating these two for future matchups will most want to look for a quick return of Ray's fastball velocity, which reached 94.8 mph on average during his 2021 career year but was 93.6 in his three Statcast-tracked rehab outings with Triple-A Sacramento, and the elite swing-and-miss potential of his slider, which generated a 45.5% whiff rate in 2021 and 44.4% while with Sacramento. They'll also want to ensure that Glasnow has shown no significant loss of velocity -- his fastball has averaged 96.3 mph this year -- or swing-and-miss on his breaking pitches (curveball and slider) as a result of his back issues. The latter is of lesser concern, however, having missed only two rotation turns, which might've been a strategic move on the Dodgers' part.

          What you may have missed on Tuesday

          By Todd Zola

          • The Seattle Mariners will be shorthanded for a bit after placing both OF Julio Rodriguez and SS J.P. Crawford on the 10-day IL. Rodriguez is nursing a right ankle sprain while Crawford has a broken right pinky. Neither has a clean timeline to return. Jonatan Clase and Cade Marlowe are expected to help fill in for Rodriguez. Dylan Moore is slated to see most of the action at shortstop.

          • Los Angeles Angels OF Mike Trout managed only two innings in his first rehab game before leaving with soreness in his surgically repaired left knee. His status is unclear, but Trout had hoped to return to the club by the end of July. That is now up in the air.

          • Milwaukee Brewers OF Christian Yelich left last night's game for a pinch-hitter in the eighth inning. As has been the case often over the past few seasons, Yelich experienced some back tightness. The extent of this current instance is as of yet unclear, but Yelich lost almost a month with a lower-back strain in the season's first half.

          • Baltimore Orioles SP Albert Suarez is reportedly fine after being hit in the shin. He has been diagnosed with a contusion and should be able to make his next start. Suarez was ineffective last night, yielding six earned runs in just two innings before leaving the game in the third. The club will send rookie SP Chayce McDermott to the hill tonight to make his MLB debut against the Miami Marlins. McDermott has tossed 91 innings for Triple-A Norfolk, posting a 3.96 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. The 25-year-old right-hander fanned an impressive 129 batters, but he also issued a hefty 54 walks. However, the Marlins' 6.0% walk rate is worst in the league, so McDermott has a chance to succeed in his inaugural effort.

          • The New York Mets placed SP Christian Scott on the 15-day IL due to a UCL sprain in his throwing elbow. The club will no doubt be cautious with their prized right-hander. The Mets rotation is slated to get a boost later this week with SP Kodai Senga expected to make his 2024 debut.

          • It appears that Boston Red Sox 3B Rafael Devers is fine after diving for a grounder last night. Initially, Devers appeared to be in pain, but eventually got to his feet and remained in the game. He reportedly jammed his shoulder, with the injury being described as "a stinger." Devers is expected to play in today's matinee in Coors Field. The Colorado Rockies took the opener of the three-game set last night.

          Everything else you need to know for Wednesday

          • Last night's postponement between the Atlanta Braves and Cincinnati Reds will be made up today as part of a day-night doubleheader. The game was called off before Braves SP Chris Sale and Reds SP Nick Martinez warmed up, so they're both fine to start the nightcap. The Reds are sending SP Frankie Montas to the Truist Park hill in the opener, so they're using a pair of righties. Braves left-handed leadoff man Jarred Kelenic (12.3%) should start both games. Newly promoted Nacho Alvarez Jr. is a switch-hitter. He's been batting in the two-hole and has a good chance to appear in both ends of the twin bill.

          • New York Yankees ace Gerrit Cole, who hasn't pitched quite up to that label thus far, should be in far better shape in his rematch with the crosstown rival New York Mets, who hit four home runs off him in four innings of work back on June 25. Cole has averaged 96-plus mph with his fastball in each of his past three outings, with a 30%-plus whiff rate in two of them, signaling his approaching his prior top-starter-in-fantasy form. He's not quite there yet, but he might be only a step or two away from recapturing it.

          • In the past 23 days (leading into Tuesday's play), the Texas Rangers have cut their divisional deficit from nine games to four, and their current home series against the rebuilding Chicago White Sox presents them a golden opportunity to quickly make up further ground. Opposing starter Chris Flexen represents Rangers hitters' best matchups within the four-game series; he has a rotation-worst 5.22 ERA and has surrendered a team-leading 17 home runs while striking out a mere 17.1% of hitters faced. Flexen has struggled especially against left-handed hitters, which is good news for usual Nos. 2, 3 and 6 hitters Corey Seager, Josh Smith and Nathaniel Lowe, lefty bats who have .275/.389/.505, .269/.378/.453 and .258/.349/.389 rates against right-handers this season.

          • After a miserable start, Houston Astros sophomore Hunter Brown has turned his season around dramatically. He has nine quality starts in his past 10 tries, during which time his ERA is 2.07. Brown's improvements can largely be attributed to leaning more on a sinker that he had used only sporadically during his first year-plus in the majors, giving him a fifth pitch that has deepened his repertoire. He has dominated weaker offenses, averaging 19.4 fantasy points in his five outings against bottom-10 teams in terms of runs per game. Brown's Wednesday opponent, the Oakland Athletics, entered Tuesday ranked seventh-worst (4.12).

          • Load up on Boston Red Sox hitters against Colorado Rockies right-hander Cal Quantrill, who, despite a 4.06 ERA in his nine starts at Coors Field, remains one of Wednesday's best matchups to exploit. A sinker/splitter/cutter pitcher, Quantrill should have the most trouble against Tyler O'Neill and Connor Wong, two of the Red Sox's most successful hitters against that particular pitch repertoire historically. Since the beginning of 2022, O'Neill is a .331/.406/.577 hitter against sinkers and .318/.348/.636 against splitters, while Wong has batted .357/.417/.522 against sinkers and has one home run in 13 plate appearances that ended with a splitter.

          • Betting tip of the day: The Philadelphia Phillies have averaged 4.91 runs per game since the healthy returns of both Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, seventh-best in the majors during that time span. They get another hitter-friendly matchup against Minnesota Twins opener Steven Okert and bulk pitcher David Festa. Take the Phillies to win (-145). Harper (+380) to hit a homer is one of the better bets individually from within their lineup.

          Starting pitcher rankings for Wednesday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Hitting report

          Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.

          Best Sub-50% rostered hitters for Wednesday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst Over-50% rostered hitters for Wednesday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Wednesday