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          Fantasy baseball Wednesday advice: Start Cease against Dodgers lineup

          How will Dylan Cease fare in his first start since throwing a no-hitter? Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
          • Tristan H. Cockcroft
          Jul 31, 2024, 02:13 PM

          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          Following up history

          San Diego Padres ace Dylan Cease enjoyed a magical performance his last time out, tossing a no-hitter against the rebuilding Washington Nationals last Thursday. But can he repeat or at least approach the effort in a much tougher follow-up matchup against the Los Angeles Dodgers?

          The recent history of pitchers coming off no-hitters is especially discouraging. Here's a quick look at their returns in the masterpiece as well as their very next start:

          • No-hitter: averages of 35.3 fantasy points and 108.5 pitches thrown

          • Follow-up: averages of 4.7 FPTS, 82.3 pitches, 4.7 innings; 5.75 ERA and 1.69 WHIP

          In Cease's defense, this sample of no-no artists pales in comparison as far as both skill set and recent track record. Amongst the group, Framber Valdez (Aug. 1, 2023, no-hitter) is the only one within even 300 fantasy points of Cease's 1,525 scored since the beginning of 2021, and Carlos Rodon (April 14, 2021, no-hitter) and Joe Musgrove (April 9, 2021, no-hitter) are the only others who have even half as many fantasy points in that time. Valdez, Rodon and Musgrove averaged 8.3 points and 94.7 pitches thrown in their follow-up outings, serviceable enough numbers for our purposes.

          It's the pitch counts in these outings -- often, a pitcher gets unusually large leeway with workload when working a no-hitter -- that might be the stronger measure. Cease threw 114 pitches last Thursday and will be working on five days' rest, so let's take a look next at this year's 16 instances of a pitcher throwing 110-plus pitches in an outing who have since worked a follow-up:

          • Threw 110+: averaged 19.1 FPTS, 112.2 pitches, 6.5 innings; 1.99 ERA, 1.03 WHIP

          • Follow-up: averaged 14.7 FPTS, 95.3 pitches, 6.0 innings; 3.20 ERA, 1.00 WHIP

          Cease himself accounted for two of these, going from 17 to 27 fantasy points on April 16 and 22, then 32 to eight on May 8 and 14, and despite the decrease in pitch counts in the samples above, the latter line represents very encouraging results. As he's one of the game's few starters capable of absorbing these kinds of outing-over-outing workloads, there's good reason to think he should be at close to full form on Wednesday, with the Padres only possibly capping his pitch count closer to the 95-100 range.

          Is that enough to thrive against the Dodgers, the majors' fourth-best offense in terms of runs per game (4.93)? Probably, especially if we consider that the team, which is currently without Mookie Betts, Max Muncy and Freddie Freeman ranks only 16th in the category in the month of July (4.45). Start Cease with confidence for this one.

          What you may have missed on Tuesday

          By Todd Zola

          • New York Yankees SP Gerrit Cole was scratched from last night's scheduled start due to general soreness and fatigue. He had also been dealing with a stomach bug. There is reportedly no injury and Cole hopes to make his next appearance over the weekend. Rookie SP Will Warren was called up to make his MLB debut against the Philadelphia Phillies in Citizens Bank Park. The 25-year-old right-hander yielded four runs on four hits over 5 1/3 innings, fanning six. Warren was sent back to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre following the game.

          • Los Angeles Dodgers manager Dave Roberts indicated that 1B Freddie Freeman will remain away from the team today, with the possibility he'll return for Friday night's series opener on the road against the Oakland Athletics. Freeman is currently on the family emergency list, a designation which will expire on Saturday.

          • Miami Marlins SP Edward Cabrera left last night's game after throwing two pitches in the sixth inning. Cabrera reportedly hurt his knee while covering first base in the fifth. He's slated for imaging today. The injury-riddled Marlins rotation was further thinned yesterday after the team dealt SP Trevor Rogers to the Baltimore Orioles. Jesus Luzardo and Braxton Garrett are both on the 60-day IL, with the hope being that they'll be able to return by the end of August.

          • Toronto Blue Jays C Alejandro Kirk was hit in the elbow by a 98-mph pitch in the sixth inning of last night's game. He stayed in to run the bases but was lifted thereafter. Reserve C Brian Serven took over behind the plate. Kirk's status for today's contest is unclear. With C Danny Jansen having been traded to the Boston Red Sox, Kirk was earmarked for the bulk of Toronto's catching duties. Daulton Varsho used to be a regular backstop, but he hasn't donned his catcher's mask since 2022.

          • Texas Rangers GM Chris Young indicated that OF Evan Carter probably won't play again this regular season. However, Young left the door open for a possible return if the club makes the playoffs.

          • Los Angeles Angels OF Mike Trout experienced an undisclosed setback during the rehab for his surgically repaired meniscus. Angels GM Perry Minasian was non-committal when asked if Trout would play again this season. The club also returned 3B Anthony Rendon to the 10-day IL due to lower-back inflammation. On the field, the Angels defeated the Colorado Rockies 10-7, with RP Hunter Strickland picking up the save. The club dealt both Carlos Estevez and Luis Garcia at the deadline, so it was unclear who would close. Yesterday, RP Ben Joyce handled the eighth inning before Strickland took care of the ninth.

          • Arizona Diamondbacks 1B Christian Walker was placed on the 10-day IL due to a strained left oblique. He's expected to be out for around three weeks. Last night, Pavin Smith was called up to play first base, although newly acquired 1B Josh Bell is expected to garner most of the action in Walker's stead.

          • New York Mets C Francisco Alvarez was sidelined for the second straight game as he has been experiencing left shoulder soreness. Backup C Luis Torrens was behind the plate.

          Everything else you need to know for Wednesday

          • Taj Bradley has been a sensation since joining the Tampa Bay Rays rotation on May 10, and he joins Cease as the only full-time starters who have active streaks of three consecutive scoreless outings (Bradley has 20 total innings in his three, while Cease has 22). A home start against the rebuilding Miami Marlins is one of the most favorable matchups a starter could draw, as even though the Marlins have shown some life offensively since the early-July release of Tim Anderson, they're nevertheless still only the 23rd-ranked team in runs per game for the month (4.09). Bradley's hot streak makes him a locked-in member of any fantasy lineup.

          • Clayton Kershaw, Cease's opponent on Wednesday, threw only 72 pitches in his 2024 debut last Thursday, but he generated six strikeouts and 14 swings and misses and generally looked close to his pre-injury self. One drawback to his matchup, however, is that the opposing Padres have been the least strikeout-prone offense in the game this season (major league best 17.9% K rate). Expect something in the ballpark of 85 pitches, which is enough to make Kershaw a 15-team mixed and NL-only option, but probably not yet a clear, every-turn standard league option.

          • Brady Singer, who has back-to-back scoreless starts, draws the league's by far most favorable matchup in the Chicago White Sox, who are in a deep rebuild and might trade away more offensive pieces before Tuesday's deadline. The projections therefore understandably love Singer, who remains available in more than 25% of ESPN leagues.

          • Though the identity of the Toronto Blue Jays' Wednesday starter remains unknown, their trades and other roster moves leave them in a precarious spot on the pitching side, with newly acquired Jake Bloss their most logical option to start. Between Bloss' gopher-itis in his most recent turn, the possibility that the Blue Jays will need to make Wednesday a bullpen game, and the taxing on their bullpen that recent trades and Monday's doubleheader have caused, Orioles hitters stand out as one of the day's best stacks. Colton Cowser and Ryan Mountcastle have been among the team's most productive hitters over the past week, and both should be in your lineups for this favorable matchup.

          • Betting tip of the day: Pablo Lopez has turned his season around in a big way, posting a 2.84 ERA and an average of eight strikeouts over his last six starts. The opposing New York Mets have had his number in the past, as he has a 5.54 career ERA against them over 12 starts, but much of that was also accrued at a time where Lopez wasn't quite the ace-caliber pitcher that he is today. Lopez over 6.5 strikeouts (+105) is a strong play, as is taking under 8.5 runs (-120), in what should be a pitching-heavy matchup between him and Luis Severino.

          It's never too late to start a free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday. Come and join the fun!

          Starting pitcher rankings for Wednesday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Hitting report

          Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.

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