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          Fantasy baseball Monday advice: Pfaadt looks to stay hot

          Brandon Pfaadt has had a steady sophomore season, playing with the 16th-most innings in MLB. AP Photo/Matt Freed
          • Todd Zola, FantasyAug 12, 2024, 04:23 PM
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            • Writing on fantasy baseball game theory and player analysis since 1997
            • Winner of the 2013 Fantasy Sports Writer's Association Best Baseball Article
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          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication

          Pfaadt's success is not a mirage

          Arizona Diamondbacks SP Brandon Pfaadt experienced an up and down rookie season, though to be more accurate, it was down and up. Ater posting a 9.82 ERA over his first three outings, spanning just 11 innings, Pfaadt spent time at Triple-A, and when he returned after last season's break, Pfaadt registered a more palatable 4.22 ERA with 73 strikeouts in 70 1/3 innings. The freshman then recorded a 3.27 ERA over five postseason starts.

          Pfaadt's sophomore campaign has been steady. He's made 23 starts with his 137 2/3 innings through Saturday rankings as the 16th most in MLB. Pfaadt's 3.92 ERA is 43rd best among qualified pitchers, though his 3.72 xFIP drops him to 24th. Pfaadt's 1.11 WHIP is an impressive 22nd among qualifiers.

          Even with these plaudits, Pfaadt is rostered in only 35.5% of ESPN leagues. The reason is likely a slightly below average 22% strikeout rate, though that mark lands 37th among qualified starters.

          On average, teams carry between three and four starting pitchers on their roster, so it makes sense that Pfaadt falls just outside the range where he's worthy of being reserves between outings in 10 and 12 team leagues. That said, you want him in your Monday active lineup.

          The Diamondbacks open a home set with the Colorado Rockies. Pfaadt faces the lineup with the third lowest wOBA and third highest strikeout rate on the road versus righties.

          What you may have missed on Sunday

          • There's a chance that Boston Red Sox OF Jarren Duran will be suspended by MLB after he was caught responding to a fan with a homophobic slur. Reportedly, MLB could work with the Red Sox front office and agree on terms. The ruling is expected no later than Tuesday. The Red Sox open a home series with the Texas Rangers this evening.

          • The Cleveland Guardians announced that SP Matthew Boyd is slated to come off the IL and start Tuesday's home matchup against the Chicago Cubs. Boyd has been rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. When the Guardians signed Boyd, it was with an eye towards 2025, but the veteran lefty could give their rotation a boost in the quest to secure a playoff berth. In his final rehab outing, Boyd tossed six scoreless innings for Triple-A Columbus, allowing just one hit with seven strikeouts and no free passes.

          • Rangers general manager Chris Young reported that SP Nathan Eovaldi will not accompany the team to Boston and will instead see Dr. Keith Meister regarding the tightness in his side. Eovaldi managed to hurl only three innings on Saturday before being removed. The club is hopeful that Eovaldi can avoid an IL stint, but his next start, currently slated for Thursday, is in jeopardy.

          • Los Angeles Dodgers SP River Ryan was placed on the IL and deemed to be out for the season due to a UCL strain. Ryan had been ticketed to start next Friday. It remains to be seen whether the Dodgers will deploy Tyler Glasnow on four days of rest for just the second time this season or turn to someone else.

          • Arizona Diamondbacks OF Lourdes Gurriel Jr. was forced from Sunday's game in the fourth inning due to a tight left hamstring. He's considered to be day-to-day and is thus questionable tonight when the Colorado Rockies visit the desert.

          • New York Mets 3B Mark Vientos was scratched thanks to lingering ankle soreness. He had previouly been able to play through the injury first experienced in late July, so the club is optimistic that Monday's off day can help Vientos return on Tuesday.

          Everything else you need to know for Monday

          • Thirteen games comprise Monday's schedule, with everything contested under the lights. The first two games commence at 6:40 PM ET, both taking place in the Buckeye State with the Cleveland Guardians entertaining the Chicago Cubs and the Cincinnati Reds hosting the St. Louis Cardinals.

          • Andrew Abbott (22.4% rostered) is slated to take the hill for the Reds. Home runs have been an issue for the lefty all season, but even more so lately as he's surrendered six long balls over his last three outings. In Abbott's favor is that the Cardinals tote the fifth lowest road home run rate against lefties into the Great American Ballpark, but of course the venue is one of the better power hitting parks in the league.

          • The highlight of Monday's docket is a meeting of first place squads with the Los Angeles Dodgers visiting the Milwaukee Brewers. Both clubs are jostling with the Philadelphia Phillies for the two National League byes. Of the three teams, the Brewers hold the most comfortable division lead. Their game with the Dodgers features not only the return of Mookie Betts, but his return to right field. Clayton Kershaw (32.3% rostered) will be on the hill for the Dodgers. The lefty will be making just his fourth start of the season.

          • Last time out, Kershaw tossed 4 2/3 innings against the Phillies, yielding just one earned run on five hits. He fanned five without issuing a walk. After throwing just 72 pitches in his first effort, Kershaw averaged 82 over the next two, so he's close to pitching with no restrictions. With the reminder that even at this point of the season, splits facing left-handers aren't stable, the Brewers boast the second highest home wOBA versus southpaws. As tempting as it may be to start Kershaw, it's not worth the risk at the onset of the fantasy scoring week.

          • Guardians SP Ben Lively (24.5% rostered) is outperforming his peripherals. Lively faces a more manageable lineup on Monday when the Guardians play the Cubs. The Cubs will carry an average road offense against right-handers into Progressive Field.

          • Betting tip of the day: What happens when one of the best hitters in the league faces one of the worst starting pitchers? We'll find out tonight when New York Yankees OF Aaron Judge steps in the box against Chicago White Sox SP Ky Bush. Hitting conditions won't be ideal in Guaranteed Rate Field, but it's still a hitter's paradise and Judge will enjoy the platoon edge on Bush, so I'm expecting another big night. Take over 3.5 total hits + runs + RBI (+140).

          Starting pitcher rankings for Monday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Hitting report

          Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.

          Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Monday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Monday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Monday