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          Fantasy baseball Friday advice: Ray of hope as Pepiot returns

          Ryan Pepiot returns to action for the Tampa Bay Rays. Joe Sargent/Getty Images
          • Tristan H. Cockcroft
          Aug 16, 2024, 03:38 PM

          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          A Ray of hope

          The Tampa Bay Rays' rotation, which has a fifth-worst 5.40 ERA since the trade deadline, should get a boost on Friday, as promising young right-hander Ryan Pepiot returns from the injured list.

          Pepiot's injury has been one of this year's more unusual. After he pitched six scoreless innings against the Cleveland Guardians on July 14, in the team's first-half finale, he abruptly landed on the 15-day injured list a week later due to an infection in his right knee. Pepiot said at the time that the infection stemmed from a bug bite, most likely by a spider, an ailment that ultimately kept him on the IL for 32 days.

          Fortunately, as the injury wasn't arm-related, there's reason to believe Pepiot should quickly return to form as a prospective top-40 fantasy starting pitcher going forward. His lone rehabilitation start for Double-A Montgomery last Saturday, during which he tossed 3 1/3 shutout innings with seven strikeouts, indicated as such. If there are any performance-related concerns for Pepiot's return outing, it's that he threw only 69 pitches in that Saturday start, meaning a likely cap in the 80 range. The Rays are often known to use openers ahead of their pitch count-limited starters, however, so it's possible that Pepiot might mark his return as the team's bulk reliever on Friday.

          From a matchups standpoint, however, Pepiot faces quite a challenge, against the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Diamondbacks rank first in baseball with their 6.62 runs per game average, .289 batting average and .387 team wOBA in the month of August, and after being a much more successful offense against left- than right-handed pitchers in the season's early stages, their .388 wOBA against righties since the All-Star break is the majors' best rate.

          Pepiot's improvements with his four-seam fastball -- elevated 94.9 mph average velocity, 31.3% whiff rate and 81st percentile spin rate -- increase his long-term fantasy prospects, but Friday's might be one matchup where he's wiser kept on your bench for evaluation purposes. But here's the good news: He'd be lined up for favorable road starts in Oakland and Seattle from there.

          What you may have missed on Thursday

          By Todd Zola

          • Milwaukee Brewers OF Christian Yelich will undergo season-ending back surgery on Friday. Yelich has experienced lingering back issues for a few seasons, so the decision was made to have the problem fixed in order for Yelich to focus on a healthy 2025 and beyond.

          • The Minnesota Twins placed OF Byron Buxton on the 10-day IL due to hip soreness. Imaging revealed no structural damage, but since Buxton missed his third straight game last night, the club opted for the IL stint. It's back-dated so Buxton will be eligible to return in one week. In a corresponding move, the Twins recalled 2B Edouard Julien. Manuel Margot and Austin Martin could help replace Buxton in center field, or Willi Castro could see some action there with Julien manning the keystone.

          • New York Mets OF Brandon Nimmo missed last night's game as he was dealing with the stomach flu. His availability for tonight's NL East home date with the Miami Marlins is unclear.

          • Boston Red Sox 1B Triston Casas is slated to be activated from the IL in advance of tonight's road affair with the Baltimore Orioles. Casas will likely return to being the team's regular first baseman, although he'll also see some action as a DH and may sit versus some left-handed pitching. Dominic Smith and Connor Wong have been platooning at first base.

          • After leaving Wednesday's game early due to an ankle injury, Seattle Mariners OF Julio Rodriguez was in yesterday's initial starting lineup. However, he was ultimately scratched, with the club opting to give him a full day to heal. His status for tonight's road game against the Pittsburgh Pirates is up in the air.

          • The Detroit Tigers will promote a pair of promising infielders today with 3B Jace Jung and SS Trey Sweeney both on their way from Triple-A Toledo. Jung is the younger brother of Texas Rangers 3B Josh Jung. Detroit's Jung is ticketed to replace Gio Urshela at the hot corner. Sweeney was part of the return from the Los Angeles Dodgers in the Jack Flaherty deal. Sweeney's role is unclear, though he's likely to take some playing time away from SS Javier Baez.

          Everything else you need to know for Friday

          • Gerrit Cole, who has yet to deliver a 20-point fantasy performance in any of his nine starts this season after doing so 12 times in his 33 starts in 2023, again aims to recapture his past ace potential in a plus matchup on the road against the Detroit Tigers. Cole hasn't had quite the same velocity or effectiveness with his pitches since his elbow injury earlier this season as he did in recent years, though he did register season bests with his 96.6 mph average fastball velocity, 10 strikeouts and 26 swings and misses in his most recent turn, which offers optimism. Expect another solid, even if unspectacular, outing against a Tigers offense that has averaged 4.00 runs per game since the All-Star break, fifth worst in the majors.

          • National League All-Star starter and Rookie of the Year favorite (though his lead is shrinking) Paul Skenes is in the midst of the first "tough" stretch of his young career, if a 3.63 ERA over a three-start stretch can really be termed that. It has coincided with an especially challenging span of matchups, against Houston Astros, Diamondbacks and Los Angeles Dodgers offenses that rank 13th, first and fifth in runs per game for the season. Skenes' average fastball velocity was its lowest in that most recent turn last Saturday (97.7 mph), but a home matchup against the strikeout-prone Seattle Mariners offers plenty of bounce-back potential. The Mariners' 27.8% K rate for the season, and 30.6% in August, are both the league's worst. Stick with Skenes on Friday, though be forewarned that the Pirates, eight games back in the NL wild card race, might soon begin lowering his pitch counts to keep his workload in check.

          • Speaking of workload concerns, Garrett Crochet makes his 25th start of the season Friday, on the road against the Astros. Crochet hasn't thrown more than 77 pitches in any of his past five starts or totaled more than four innings in any of his past six, signaling a tight enough leash to give him almost no chance at a win (five innings are the minimum requirement). Sit him for this assignment.

          • The San Diego Padres, winners of three straight and 19 of their past 22 games, bring their fourth-best offense since the All-Star break (5.83 runs per game average) to Colorado's Coors Field this weekend. It's good timing for this team that's on quite a roll, and the matchup leans even more favorably for their hitters, as pitch-to-contact righty Cal Quantrill will face this Padres offense that has the majors' lowest K rate since said break (16.5%). Jackson Merrill, somehow still available in nearly one-quarter of ESPN leagues, has been one of their best of late, batting .346/.374/.691 in his past 22 games. David Peralta, who has batted .295/.349/.590 with five homers in 19 games since the All-Star break, also warrants a pickup and start against Quantrill.

          • Washington Nationals lefty Patrick Corbin has struggled mightily against the division-rival Philadelphia Phillies recently, posting a 1-7 record and 6.97 ERA in his past 10 starts against them (2021-24 in their entirety). In particular, Alec Bohm and J.T. Realmuto have had a good degree of success against Corbin, each sporting an OPS greater than 1.000 in at least 28 plate appearances against him. Stack your Phillies for this fantasy-friendly hitting matchup.

          • Betting tip of the day: Every five or six days, Corbin takes the hill, which means every five or six days, the opposition's top right-handed batter sets up for a productive game. Tonight, it's SS Trea Turner. The forecast calls for warm temperatures and a slight wind blowing out to center field, favoring batters. I'm taking Turner for over 3.5 total hits + runs + RBI (+150).

          Starting pitcher rankings for Friday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Hitting report

          Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.

          Best Sub-50% rostered hitters for Friday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst Over-50% rostered hitters for Friday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Friday