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          Fantasy baseball Wednesday advice: Verlander set to return

          Justin Verlander returns to the Astros' rotation after a 72-day absence because of neck discomfort. AP Photo/Kevin M. Cox, File
          • Tristan H. Cockcroft
          Aug 21, 2024, 04:00 PM

          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          The Pirates are giving their prized rookie, Paul Skenes extra rest Wednesday instead of making him pitch on just four days rest.

          Instead, RHP Domingo German will get a spot start in Arlington against the Texas Rangers. It's a favorable matchup with the Rangers sporting the seventh lowest wOBA facing right-handers but German may not be stretched out enough to manage five frames. However, he's more than a traditional opener since he was a starter with Triple-A Indianapolis and has thrown multiple innings in both of his appearances since being promoted. Even so, German likely won't qualify for a win if he's effective.

          Ryan Pepiot (49.4% rostered) was solid in his return from a month-long stay on the IL, limiting the potent Diamondbacks offense to a pair of unearned runs in 5 1/3 innings. Pepiot has a road date with the Oakland Athletics Wednesday, landing him as the top ranked streaming option on the card. For the season, the Athletics sport an above average home run rate with a righty on the hill, but for the past month it's seen the seventh lowest in MLB.

          What you may have missed on Tuesday

          By Todd Zola

          • New York Yankees SP Luis Gil left Tuesday night's contest in the fourth inning with back tightness. The righty issued six walks to the Cleveland Guardians, fanning just three while yielding three earned runs. In a post-game interview, Gil revealed he first experienced the issue in the third inning. His availability for this weekend's start is in jeopardy.

          • The San Diego Padres placed SS Ha-Seong Kim on the 10-day IL with right shoulder inflammation. Tyler Wade filled in at shortstop Monday and Tuesday night and is expected to garner the bulk of the action in Kim's absence. Matthew Batter was called up to take the roster spot and add infield depth.

          • The Texas Rangers placed SP Tyler Mahle on the 15-day IL with a tight right shoulder. Mahle made only three starts after missing most of the season rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. The Rangers have not reported a timetable, but the intent is for Mahle to return in September. In a corresponding move, SP Jon Gray was activated from the IL and is earmarked to take Mahle's spot in the rotation, slated for Saturday.

          • The Houston Astros expect to have 3B Alex Bregman back in Wednesday's lineup for their matinee against the Boston Red Sox. Bregman has been out for five games after sleeping awkwardly on his elbow. The plan is for Bregman to serve as the designated hitter, likely shifting Yordan Alvarez to left field, where he has appeared 40 times already this season.

          • Colorado Rockies closer Victor Vodnik was warming up to seal Tuesday nigh's contest with the Washington Nationals but did not pitch due to shoulder soreness. With Tyler Kinley throwing 17 pitches in the eighth inning, manager Bud Black entrusted rookie Angel Chivilli, who delivered his first career save. Chivilli closed last season in the lower levels of the minor leagues, though Kinley is expected to fill in if Vodnik misses more action. Vodnik has nine saves since taking over as closer in early July, but it came with a 4.12 ERA and 1.42 WHIP over that span, with just 17 punchouts in 19 2/3 frames.

          What you need to know for Wednesday

          • Justin Verlander will mark his return to the Houston Astros' rotation, following a 72-day absence due to neck discomfort. He hasn't performed nearly to the level of his 2022 Cy Young season, his first following Tommy John surgery, in the two years since but had been reasonably productive for fantasy purposes before his IL placement in June. Despite a 21.3% K rate and 3.95 ERA, his worst in a season since 2014, his 105 fantasy points between his two IL stints tied for 40th among pure starting pitchers. Verlander's rehabilitation stint was promising enough as well, totaling seven innings allowing three runs (two earned) with eight strikeouts over two starts. He is, however, shaping up as more of a matchups than every-start type for our purposes, which is important considering he'll probably be capped in the 75 pitch range while facing a Boston Red Sox lineup that the projections grade one of the 10 toughest matchups. It's best to keep Verlander benched for evaluation tonight.

          • The scorching-hot Arizona Diamondbacks, whose 6.29 runs per game in August are most in the majors, get another dream hitting matchup against the Miami Marlins and rookie right-hander Roddery Munoz. Munoz has a 6.67 ERA and has averaged 4.5 innings per start since the All-Star break, and he's backed by a trade- and injury-depleted bullpen with the majors' sixth-worst ERA in August (5.22). Despite the loss of Ketel Marte to the IL, the Diamondbacks have numerous fantasy options for this game, most notably Jake McCarthy, who should benefit from starts out of the No. 2 spot in the lineup against righties while Marte is sidelined. McCarthy, available in roughly two-thirds of ESPN leagues, has batted .373/.433/.627 with four homers and 19 RBIs in 17 games in August.

          • Regardless of the identity of the Los Angeles Angels' Wednesday starter, the opposing Kansas City Royals lineup should benefit from the rotation spot vacated when Jose Soriano landed on the injured list. Johnny Cueto, a Royal himself during the team's 2015 championship season, is likely to get the nod, which tilts thing significantly in the home team's favor considering Cueto has a 4.26 ERA and 18.0% strikeout rate in the majors since the beginning of 2020, with a similar level of performance in the minors this year (4.76 ERA, 17.9 K%). This is a good opportunity to scoop up widely available free agents like MJ Melendez or Dairon Blanco for the spot start.

          • Zach Eflin has pitched excellently since joining the Baltimore Orioles via trade on July 26, going 4-for-4 in quality starts while averaging 17.8 fantasy points. Wednesday's road assignment against the New York Mets will represent his toughest matchup since his July 19 loss at Yankee Stadium, when he scored minus-1 points, but the Mets are only an above-average offense and are one of the better offenses for pitcher strikeouts. Eflin's hot streak should earn him a spot in every lineup, and bear in mind that he's available in roughly 15% of ESPN leagues.

          • Betting Tip of the Day: So far this month, the Arizona Diamondbacks have averaged 6.1 runs per game while the Miami Marlins are at 3.9. The two clubs play Wednesday night in South Beach. The difference of 2.2 runs per game in favor of the Diamondbacks is sufficient to back Arizona with the -1.5 Run Line (Even).

          Starting pitcher rankings for Wednesday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Hitting report

          Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.

          Best Sub-50% rostered hitters for Wednesday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst Over-50% rostered hitters for Wednesday

          The BAT X's Best Stacks for Saturday