<
        >

          Fantasy baseball advice for Friday: Why Bradley, Kershaw are risky starts

          Taj Bradley faces a difficult Padres lineup in a home tilt. Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
          • Todd Zola, FantasyAug 30, 2024, 04:18 PM
            Close
            • Writing on fantasy baseball game theory and player analysis since 1997
            • Winner of the 2013 Fantasy Sports Writer's Association Best Baseball Article
            Follow on X

          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          A pair in the queen city

          Friday features a day-night doubleheader in the Great American Ball Park, where the Cincinnati Reds will host the Milwaukee Brewers. Both games should generate plenty of scoring with the Game 1 temperature in the low 90s and the nightcap in the high 80s.

          The opener kicks off the Friday slate at 12:40 p.m. ET. The Brewers are set to hand the ball to RHP Colin Rea with the Reds likely turning to RHP Nick Martinez, at least for a few innings. Martinez would be starting on just three days of rest, though he threw only 54 pitches in his latest outing, so he's likely to be more than an opener, but he'll have to be very efficient to deliver five frames.

          Rea has been effective, but he's a risk on Friday. His 19.2% strikeout rate is well below average. His success entails limiting traffic with a low walk rate and very low BABIP. Some of the low BABIP is due to being a fly ball pitcher, but that has also produced a high home run rate. With elevated temperatures, allowing fly balls to be put in play is a recipe for disaster.

          The Brewers called up DL Hall to serve as the 27th man. He will reportedly work in the nightcap, either as the starter or a bulk reliever. Coincidentally, his last MLB appearance was Aug. 11 against the Reds. That day, he fanned 11 in just 4⅔ innings, but he also walked three and allowed a home run. Hall started for Triple-A Nashville on Aug. 24, throwing only 2⅔ innings while allowing six earned runs.

          Martinez has been effective in his swingman role for the Reds, but the Brewers will get to face a suspect bullpen for a large portion of the first game. The Reds intend to promote rookie RHP Rhett Lowder to start the second game. Lowder is one of the Reds' top pitching prospects, though he's thrown only six innings at the Triple-A level. The 22-year-old was the seventh pick in the 2023 draft. He debuted this season at High-A Dayton before spending the bulk of the summer with Double-A Chattanooga.

          Lowder advanced to Louisville where he made one start. He has been effective, punching out 113 over 108⅔combined innings, posting a 3.64 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. However, his inaugural MLB start is against one of the most productive offenses in the league, in a hitter's haven with favorable weather.

          The top hitter to target is Brewers rookie OF Jackson Chourio (50.4% rostered in ESPN league). Since the All-Star break, Chourio has delivered a .329/.365/.557 line with nine swipes. Blake Perkins (1.0% rostered) and Joey Ortiz (7.0% rostered) are both readily available with a solid chance to appear in both games.

          For the Reds, 2B Jonathan India (27.9%) is in a good spot to play both ends. India's on-base ability is especially useful in points leagues.

          What you may have missed on Thursday

          • The Kansas City Royals will be without 1B Vinnie Pasquantino for the rest of the regular season after he fractured his thumb fielding a throw from RP Lucas Erceg in the eighth inning of Thursday's loss to the Houston Astros. Erceg was also hurt on the play as he attempted to field a one-hopper with his bare hand. Erceg's status is unknown.

          • Philadelphia Phillies 1B/3B Alec Bohm played only two innings yesterday after seemingly hurting his hand swinging in the first. X-rays came back negative, but the club could send Bohm for further tests, depending on how his hand feels today.

          • Los Angeles Dodgers 1B Freddie Freeman missed his third straight game due to a hairline fracture in his finger. However, the club is optimistic he can return to the lineup tonight. That said, Freeman's finger isn't going to fully heal without extended rest, so even when he returns, his status is essentially day-to-day since the finger can act up at any time.

          • Boston Red Sox 2B/SS David Hamilton was placed on the 10-day IL because of a broken finger, incurred when he was hit by a pitch while bunting. The timetable is 4-6 weeks, but Hamilton is hopeful he can make it back sooner. The club recalled 2B Nick Sogard and could summon Vaughn Grissom when rosters expand. The Red Sox's stagnant offense should get a lift tonight with the return of 3B Rafael Devers.

          Everything else you need to know for Friday

          • Friday is not the ideal time to fortify pitching, as three notable starters rostered in fewer than half of ESPN leagues are facing dangerous lineups. Deploy Tampa Bay Rays RHP Taj Bradley at home against the Padres, LHP Clayton Kershaw on the road against the Arizona Diamondbacks and St. Louis Cardinals RHP Erick Fedde in Yankees Stadium at your own risk.

          • There are a couple lower-ranked hurlers with more favorable matchups, beginning with Cleveland Guardians RHP Ben Lively (48.0% rostered) at home against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Lively is another non-dominant, pitch-to-contact guy who is benefiting from the baseball not traveling as far as usual. It will be warm in Progressive Field, but the Pirates' home run rate facing right-handers is the fourth worst in the league and they punch out at the seventh-highest clip.

          • Texas Rangers RHP Jon Gray (19.1% rostered) struggled last time out, yielding seven hits and seven earned runs to the Guardians. On Friday, Gray enjoys a home date with the slumping Oakland Athletics lineup, averaging the fourth-fewest runs per game in August.

          • Betting tip of the day: The ball has been flying all over Coors Field this week and now the potent Baltimore Orioles are paying a visit to the Colorado Rockies. Most of the attention has been directed towards the Orioles' talented youngsters, but it's OF Anthony Santander leading the club in both homers and RBI. With the wind forecast to be blowing out to center field, the bet is on Santander over 3.5 total Hits + runs + RBI (+135).

          Starting pitcher rankings for Friday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Hitting report

          Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.

          Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Friday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Friday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Friday