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          Fantasy baseball Monday advice: Be bold with Brayan Bello

          Brayan Bello has been smiling a lot more over the second half of the 2024 season. Getty Images
          • Todd Zola, FantasySep 2, 2024, 01:30 PM
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            • Writing on fantasy baseball game theory and player analysis since 1997
            • Winner of the 2013 Fantasy Sports Writer's Association Best Baseball Article
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          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          Look out Bello!

          Boston Red Sox RHP Brayan Bello has pitched well since the break, posting a 3.42 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. Before the break, Bello checked in with a 5.32 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP. While there are indications that Bello has made improvements, it's also clear that he was victimized over the first half. Specifically, Bello's BABIP has dropped from .328 to .260 and his LOB% has risen from 69.3 to 78.4. Bello is also yielding fewer homers.

          A high BABIP alongside a high HR rate isn't always indicative of bad luck -- there is usually some bad pitching contributing to the poor outcomes. Still, Bello's pre-break 4.05 xFIP compared to only 3.83 since suggests much of Bello's improvement has been due to regression.

          An area Bello has improved upon is strikeouts. His velocity is up half a tick, resulting in a few more swing-and-misses, which has translated to more punchouts. Bello's pitch mix remains unchanged, suggesting that he's improving his sequencing and command. The decrease in homers also reflects better command.

          Unlike some young arms, Bello averages a respectable 90 pitches a game. His ratios may be adversely affected by being tasked with staying in games when other similar hurlers would be removed, but this "no kid gloves" treatment should help Bello in the long run.

          On Monday, Bello (26.6% rostered in ESPN leagues) is the second-highest ranked pitcher on the card. He'll take the hill at Citi Field against the New York Mets. The road affair is a big park upgrade for Bello. Fenway Park is second to only Coors Field in terms of embellishing runs, while Citi Field suppresses scoring more than any other venue.

          Through the first five months of the season, the Mets offense when facing righties at home is league-average across the board. It doesn't portend to be a huge strikeout night for Bello, but he should again rack up the innings, likely resulting in his 11th quality start.

          What you missed on Sunday

          • The Chicago White Sox reported that SP Drew Thorpe will undergo season-ending surgery to remove a bone spur from his pitching elbow. He's expected to fully recover for spring training.

          • Philadelphia Phillies 1B/3B Alec Bohm sat for this third straight game yesterday as he continues to deal with hand soreness incurred after taking a swing last Thursday. Bohm was able to work out on the field prior to Sunday's game, so the club is hopeful he'll return tomorrow. The Phillies are off today.

          • Houston Astros 3B Alex Bregman missed his third consecutive game with a sore elbow. The issue is expected to linger all season with Bregman considered day-to-day. Beginning today, OF Jake Meyers will miss up to the next three games while on paternity leave. The plan to fill the roster spot is recalling OF Chas McCormick from Triple-A Sugar Land. Astros general manager Dana Brown suggested there is a chance for OF Kyle Tucker to be activated later in the week.

          • Baltimore Orioles IF Ramon Uria was placed on the 10-day IL with a sprained right ankle. The club recalled rookie INF Coby Mayo in Urias' stead. Mayo is slated to play third base. He was up in early August but posted just a .259 OPS in 20 plate appearances before being sent back down to Triple-A Norfolk. The 22-year-old has experienced contact issues this season but remains a highly regarded prospect.

          • Arizona Diamondbacks OF Lourdes Gurriel left yesterday's contest in the top of the seventh inning after hurting his calf running the bases in the previous frame. The extent of the injury is unclear, though Gurriel is scheduled for further evaluation. Look for OF Randall Grichuk to fill in while Gurriel is absent.

          Everything else you need to know for Monday

          • Congratulations to those making the playoffs in head-to-head leagues. For ESPN leagues, Monday is the opening of Playoff Round 1, which runs from Sep 2-15. The 11-game Labor Day slate commences at 2:10 p.m. ET with the first of seven matinees.

          • There aren't many strong streaming candidates to open the fantasy week, with one of the better options opposing Bello in what should be a low-scoring affair. Luis Severino (26.4% rostered) gets the nod for the Mets. Severino has been inconsistent in his first season in Flushing. He has had 10 quality starts, but has also surrendered at least four runs on 10 separate occasions. Like the Mets, Boston's offense has been better on the road, but they strike out at a much higher clip. Severino has the repertoire to take advantage, despite posting a below average strikeout rate.

          • Simeon Woods Richardson is one of the reasons the Minnesota Twins still have playoff aspirations despite suffering many injuries, particularly to their hitting. While the hurler's record is only 5-3, his club has won 15 of his 23 starts. On Monday, the Twins visit the Tampa Bay Rays. Tampa Bay's offense has fallen to be the second-least productive lineup with a righty on the hill, while also fanning at the fifth-highest clip in those games.

          • Oakland Athletics SP Osvaldo Bido (15.7% rostered) should garner some AL Pitcher on the Month consideration for August after recording a 1.55 ERA and an 0.79 WHIP in five starts, covering 29 innings. He rung up a palatable 28 batters, though his nine walks are a tad excessive. It's Bido's strikeout ability that should take center stage on Monday when he challenges the Seattle Mariners at home. The visiting Mariners continue to lead the league in strikeout rate.

          • Betting Tip of the Day: Woods Richardson gets the call today against the Tampa Bay Rays. Even though it's on the road, the Twins are favored. There is risk that Woods Richardson doesn't complete five innings, or he does but the Twins don't have the lead, but this is reflected in the payout. I'll take Woods Richardson to record the win (+165).

          Starting pitcher rankings for Monday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Hitting report

          Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.

          Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Monday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Monday

          The BAT X's Best Stacks for Monday