Every Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, we pose a question to a rotating panel of ESPN fantasy basketball experts to gauge their thoughts on a hot topic. Today's contributors are ESPN NBA writer Ohm Youngmisuk and ESPN Fantasy's Kyle Soppe and Joe Kaiser.
Mike Conley is expected to miss the next six to eight weeks due to a transverse process fracture in his back. Should fantasy owners drop Conley? How should they go about replacing him?
Joe Kaiser -- The right path of action with Conley comes down to two main factors: 1) Whether your league has any IR spots available and 2) Where your team is in the standings through five weeks of the season. If an IR spot is available, Conley is a top-50 player who is worth stashing in virtually every league. Case closed.
If an IR spot isn't offered in your league, that's where your team's early-season standings come into play. On teams that are off to a slow start and making the playoffs already seems like a long shot, keeping a player like Conley, who could miss two months or more is foolish. His roster spot is too valuable, and by the time he returns, you could very well be in last place. The best thing to do is cut him and move on, as hard as it may be. The only scenario where Conley is worth keeping in a non-IR league is if your team is off to a dominant start and can afford to go with one fewer available roster spots for the next six to eight weeks.
Replacing him with anything near the same value will be darn near impossible; Conley is currently No. 14 on ESPN's Player Rater, to give you an idea of how strong of a start he has had this season. His combination of points (19.2), assists (5.7), steals (1.4) and 3-pointers (2.5) won't be matched by anyone you can get off the waiver wire, so you'll have to either orchestrate a trade or try to replace his stats via free agency with players like Matthew Dellavedova for assists, Thabo Sefolosha for steals and Courtney Lee for 3-pointers. Not ideal, but it's what has to be done.
Ohm Youngmisuk -- It really is a tough blow for Conley owners because the Grizzlies' point guard had been playing at an All-Star level. What to do with Conley? If you are already trailing in your league standings and maybe in a league with 10-to-12 teams, maybe you can think about cutting him for a replacement. But I would lean more toward holding on to Conley. A source said Conley's timetable could be closer to four to six weeks. You just won't find a point guard on the waiver wire who will be able to average 19.2 points, 5.7 assists, 1.4 steals and shoot 46.7 percent from beyond the arc.
Obviously, in deep leagues, you are stashing Conley. But unless your waiver wire has someone like Sean Kilpatrick (who will get plenty of minutes and shots, even when Jeremy Lin returns, and is available in more than 60 percent of ESPN leagues) or Lin (available in more than 40 percent of leagues and might be back soon) or Reggie Jackson (available in more than 30 percent of ESPN leagues), I'd say stash Conley and try to be aggressive in cutting someone else on your roster for someone on the waiver wire who might be a steadier and more consistent producer and hope Conley is back in a little over a month from now.
Kyle Soppe -- This is a tough blow for Conley owners, but I think you are grinning and bearing it if at all possible. Due to shallow benches in ESPN standard leagues, I get it if you simply can't afford to, but Conley has been a top-10 point guard on the Player Rater this season and ranks eighth among points guards in PER. Keep an eye on his status, but I'm giving him at least a month on my bench and seeing how the recovery process plays out before making a long-term decision on him.
As for a replacement, that is part of the argument for keeping Conley rostered. The point guard depth isn't all that great, so replacing Conley the same way the Grizz figure to with Andrew Harrison is very much in play for fantasy owners. He's obviously very raw, but at 6-foot-6, he is a tough matchup, and he should assume a greater role than most other available point guards on your waiver wire. If Harrison has already been scooped up, Kris Dunn and Seth Curry are two viable options who are owned in too few leagues right now. Replacing Conley with a free agent is going to be difficult ... maybe consider a buy low option?