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Orlando Magic SF/PF Paolo Banchero seems like the reasonable choice to end up with this season's Rookie of the Year award, as the No. 1 pick in the NBA draft leads all first-year players in PPG and MPG, and he seems like he is really awesome and someone we should covet on fantasy rosters this season.
Well, the truth is that Banchero, despite averaging a fancy 21.7 PPG and adding a useful 6.8 RPG, is not among the top 100 points league scorers, nor is he among the top 100 on ESPN's Player Rater.
Seems hard to believe for someone scoring so many traditional points, but the Duke product really isn't doing much else to help a fantasy team, notably with modest boards, below-average shooting and tepid interest in steals, blocks and 3-pointers. Only 20 years old and full of enticing skills that may land him as a truly coveted fantasy option in future years, Banchero should improve as the season lingers, but the question for fantasy managers is whether he's worth his perceived value in upcoming midseason drafts and also for trades.
Banchero went in Round 5 of preseason drafts. In retrospect, he hasn't been close to that in value. In fact, no rookies are providing much value to fantasy basketball managers based on preseason ADP or, really, any other metric. It happens every year.
Fantasy managers excited about this new thing at ESPN in which we get to draft basketball teams this late into the season should not be avoiding Banchero, of course, but he should be going later in the top 100.
That seems unlikely based on his popularity. This was the first pick in the NBA draft and he's leading his team in scoring and is among the top 30 scorers in the league, but taking the totality of his numbers for fantasy, regardless of format, and it's not enough.
Rookies always seem to get overdrafted in fantasy leagues because most of them never struggled before and they bring a world of upside, and this season has been no different. Banchero went No. 43 overall in fantasy drafts. Sacramento Kings PF Keegan Murray went in Round 9. Nope, that's not working out at all, and many fantasy managers moved on. Indiana Pacers SG/SF Bennedict Mathurin, an 11th-round ADP pick, got everyone excited when he averaged 24 PPG through his first three games. He's barely rostered in 50% of ESPN leagues today. Detroit Pistons PG/SG Jaden Ivey is the only other rookie averaging 25 fantasy points per game.
Fantasy managers need to remember passing on Banchero and Ivey is hardly a referendum on a player's skill set or their long-term future value as potential superstars. These fellows really should be good. However, two months into this season, and with less than four months left in this season, we have a decent idea about player value.
Yes, old guys such as Milwaukee Bucks C Brook Lopez, Utah Jazz PF/C Kelly Olynyk, Pistons PF Bojan Bogdanovic and even Boston Celtics PF/C Al Horford are outscoring Banchero in fantasy this season. Whom are you taking among the top 50 for 2022-23 midseason drafts? The stats say it should not be Banchero or any rookie.
Here are other players fantasy managers should not be drafting close to their preseason ADP.
LeBron James, PG/SF/PF, Anthony Davis, PF/C, Russell Westbrook, PG, Los Angeles Lakers: Perhaps we should just avoid all Lakers, you know? I may be serious here. James and Davis are capable of monster numbers, but the former has played in only 72% of games as a Laker, and the latter is down at 63%. They've also missed time recently. Despite their statistical heroics, the Lakers aren't a good team and aren't likely to avoid the play-in round if they make it there at all. I find it too risky to invest top-20 picks -- and you would need to -- on James/Davis, because they don't play enough. Meanwhile, Westbrook is third on the team with 30 fantasy points per game, nearly all off the bench, but 30 points per game is barely top 100 overall, and Westbrook went in Round 6 and may again because people have heard of him. Learn new names instead.
Cade Cunningham, PG/SG, Detroit Pistons: This may seem obvious, since the No. 32 pick in ESPN ADP has a shin injury and hasn't played in a month, but let's not assume he makes it back to the court soon, or even at all this season. Cunningham may need surgery. The Pistons aren't playoff-bound. Fantasy managers should always presume injured players will miss more time than their team projects. Stash Cunningham with a late pick in case, but you know someone in your league isn't keeping up with the news and will be wildly optimistic. I thought about including Minnesota Timberwolves PF/C Karl-Anthony Towns here, but I am confident he returns early in January and thrives again.
Kyrie Irving, PG/SG, Brooklyn Nets: Also a fantastic talent but one who has become increasingly unreliable for his team and ours in recent seasons, Irving is a constant risk to miss games for whatever reason, injury or controversial stance or anything. On the court, he remains valuable averaging more than 40 fantasy points per outing, but several of his numbers (PPG, APG, 3PG) are notably down. If it takes a top-30 pick to get Irving, I'm out and don't get me started on his surly, overrated teammate PG/PF/C Ben Simmons, who isn't a good enough fantasy option for us to deal with his issues in the first 10 rounds.
Nikola Vucevic, C, Chicago Bulls: I remain an investor because he is reliable and among the rebounding leaders, but the No. 25 option in preseason ADP is not among the top 50 in fantasy points per game. Perhaps Round 4 or 5 instead of Round 3 this time around? Still a good player, but a bit disappointing so far. We're not advising you to not draft good players, but to see their proper value.
Rudy Gobert, C, Minnesota Timberwolves: Similar situation here, actually, as Gobert went only a few picks after Vucevic, and is barely among the top 75 fantasy scorers. Gobert's numbers are way down in scoring, rebounding and blocked shots, and it's probably not because he's still figuring things out for a new club. This may be his new baseline. Draft him, but not with a top-30 pick.
CJ McCollum, PG/SG, New Orleans Pelicans: The No. 44 pick in ADP, McCollum excited fantasy managers because he averaged 24.3 PPG and shot 49% from the field in his 26 games with his new team after last season's surprise trade. This season, McCollum averages only 17.4 PPG and is shooting 39% from the field. Needless to say, he's not among the top 100 on the Player Rater.
Klay Thompson, SG and Jordan Poole, PG/SG, Golden State Warriors: You saw them star in the NBA Finals and got hooked. Each went in the first seven rounds of drafts. Neither has been remotely worth it. Thompson hits 3-pointers, and that's about it. He ranks No. 122 on the Player Rater, just after Westbrook and Houston Rockets reserve SF Tari Eason, who is 5.4% rostered. Praise Thompson for overcoming his many injuries and winning championships, but this is fantasy basketball in 2022, and we cannot be sentimental. Poole averages a similar 27 fantasy points per game, which isn't among the top 100 outputs in points leagues. These fellows are not worthy fantasy options for the first 10 rounds of a draft.
Kawhi Leonard, SF/PF, LA Clippers: Eh, you thought snaring Leonard in Round 7 was a steal, didn't you? Figured he'd return to complete health after recovering from the ACL tear. Leonard is barely playing this season and when he has, he has been a shell of his former awesome statistical self. Again, do not be sentimental or relying on name value. The Clippers won't push Leonard, that's for sure. They want him and Paul George, who at least plays really well when he plays, in April. Perhaps Leonard will start playing well when he returns to full health, but when will that be? In early 2023? Pass. Let someone else deal with it.
Malcolm Brogdon, PG/SG, Boston Celtics: This oft-injured option did go at quite a draft-day discount in Round 10, as he also joined a new franchise, but it wasn't enough. Brogdon is not a starting point guard anymore, no longer underrated. He hardly plays enough (23 MPG) to garner enough points or assists. It's hard to make much case to draft him at all.
RJ Barrett, SG/SF, New York Knicks: The No. 100 pick in ESPN preseason ADP, Barrett gets noticed because it's the Knicks and he averages 18.4 PPG, but he does little else to aid a fantasy team. He is No. 155 on the Player Rater, which is really disappointing. Fantasy managers in roto leagues can look at PPG because it is a category, but even then, target more versatile statistical options.