While it's a safe bet that Allen Iverson doesn't do mock drafts for his fantasy teams -- after all, we are talking about practice here -- you should. Hop into our Mock Draft Lobby and bang out a few practice sessions. It's a great way to flesh out draft strategies and get a feel for when you should target players you want. Furthermore, it allows you to make mistakes when they don't count, so you won't make them when building your real fantasy teams.
In the meantime, you can check out our latest mock, a head-to-head points draft which took place on Oct. 16. For newbies, points scoring gives a certain number of points for each stat accrued (e.g., plus-1 point for each assist, minus-1 point for each turnover). If you score more points than your opponent in a given week, you earn a win.
Read along as I break down the thinking behind each of my picks and get feedback from our panel of ESPN fantasy analysts (Rob Peterson, Jim McCormick, Michael Huang, Eric Karabell, Brian McKitish, James Quintong, Ross Marrinson, John Cregan and Joe Kaiser) on their selections.
ROUND 1
Not surprisingly, there is no topic looming larger in fantasy hoops circles than Kevin Durant's draft value. An official timetable for his return hasn't been announced, but as our Stephania Bell noted, he is expected to miss at least six to eight weeks.
I took Durant at No. 6, because I have never bought into the old fantasy adage that, "You can't win your league with your first-round pick, but you can certainly lose it." That's mostly because I have won multiple leagues in various formats, despite tanking my first-rounder, so I know it's false.
I prefer my own adage: "Leagues are won by those who know how to construct a complete team during their draft."
To wit, I took calculated risks with Durant at No. 6 and Michael Carter-Williams in the sixth round, but I made moves during the draft to give me a well-rounded team while I await their contributions. I made sure to get Reggie Jackson and Tony Wroten, who will have increased production while Durant and MCW are out. I drafted Jabari Parker early as a high-upside SF replacement for Durant. And I took fewer risks with the rest of my roster than I normally would to mitigate the injury risks of Durant and MCW.
Plus, I think my team is good enough to get to the playoffs, even if I don't have them for a third of the season in this H2H points format.
The bottom line is that I would still take him No. 1 in head-to-head leagues, and I think a good case can be made to take Durant no later than early in the second round in roto leagues.
Durant will miss 16 games if he is out exactly six weeks and 22 games if he is out exactly eight weeks past his Thursday surgery. Based on the formula I use for determining a player's general fantasy value, if Durant misses a full quarter of the season, he still will generate more production than everyone but LeBron James, Stephen Curry, Carmelo Anthony, Russell Westbrook, Kevin Love, Chris Paul and Al Jefferson. And when you consider that most of those guys have sustained long-term injuries in the past, it's not like they aren't without their own significant health risks, too.
And though it's a loose look at player value, 75 percent of Durant's 2013-14 Player Rater rating of 21.31 is 15.85; only Curry and LeBron topped that number last season.
Durant is just that much better than everyone else in Fantasyland.
If you are willing to invest your draft-day risks in a high-end player like Durant, and balance that with safer picks later on, the payoff, in my opinion, far outweighs the risks. That's why I'll be taking Durant in the first round in all formats, despite his projected long-term absence.
Picking on the turn can be fun, because you can lock down two studs. What was your thinking behind doubling down on a pair of bigs in Boogie Cousins and Serge Ibaka?
Marrinson: "DeMarcus Cousins is a 20-10 [or better] player who contributes two to three assists and a block per game. At No. 10, that's terrific value. And Ibaka is elite, and drafted so highly, because he'll lead the league, or come close to leading the league, in blocks. But in this format, specialists aren't as valuable, so I'm banking on Ibaka increasing his overall output on offense, which he should be able to do with Kevin Durant out for two months. If he's able to do that, to me, with this twosome, I've cemented my frontcourt for the season."
ROUND 2
I often pass on Jefferson in the roto leagues, because he doesn't rack up many blocks or dimes, and he sports a shaky free throw percentage -- stats I'm always aiming for in the first couple of rounds. I love him in points leagues, though, because specific categories don't matter, and his scoring, rebounding and field goal percentage will make him a force.
All we can do is speculate on exactly how much fantasy value Kyrie Irving will have with his new superstar teammates hogging touches. What are your expectations?
Peterson: "True, but I want to speculate the Cavs will run opponents through a gauntlet of pick-and-rolls where he can get a clear path to the hoop [points and/or a high free throw percentage] or dish to a rolling LeBron or Kevin Love set up in the corner for a three. And, I can see him leaking out to snare Love's outlet passes. If he stays healthy, I see a monster year for Kyrie and the Cavs on offense. No one will be able to stop their offense."
ROUND 3
I broke down my thinking on Horford in our first mock draft; write off his pectoral tears as freak injuries and pen him in as a top-20 player. He carries even more value in points leagues, where, a la Jefferson before, his scoring, rebounding and field goal percentage will carry the day. I have added Horford in several leagues already and probably will again, so long as he keeps falling into the third round.
Nicolas Batum has more value in roto leagues, because he helps in so many categories, which explains why he was still around at No. 27 in this format. How do you like his prospects in points leagues?
Kaiser: "I think Batum is very valuable in points leagues because he does nothing but help you in virtually every category, and is made more valuable by the scarcity of SFs out there. Over the past two seasons, his assist numbers have made a big jump, and that's also appealing to me coming from the SF spot. Lastly, Batum is among the league leaders in minutes played every year, and I expect that to continue this season."
ROUND 4
DeMar DeRozan is another great example of how my perception of a player changes between roto and fantasy. It's a rarity when I draft a guard who doesn't rack up 3s and/or steals in roto, especially when he sports a middling field goal percentage. However, categories don't matter in points leagues, but volume does. Since DeRozan is a volume offensive force, he's a terrific points-league value here in Round 4.
ESPN's basketball writers ranked Kobe Bryant 40th among NBA players, and you pulled the trigger at 36 here in Fantasyland. Granted, Kobe probably doesn't care what we think, but at what level do you expect the Black Mamba to play this season?
Cregan: "There's a difference at times between perceived real-life NBA value and fantasy value, and Kobe is a case study. I just don't get how he fell this low. Is there a chance of another season-ending -- tantamount to a career-ending injury -- this time around? Of course. But there's just too much upside to let him slide to 36 in a fantasy situation.
"He is, by far, the best player on a bad team. The best player on a bad team who has an old teammate for a coach (who can enable him) and a scoring record to break. If Kobe stays healthy, he'll be in Allen Iverson 2001 territory; all offense will flow through him, no matter how inefficient. If Kobe plays in 70-75 games, he should maintain top-25 value and prove to be another grossly underrated [due to age] value pick. For other examples, see Nowitzki, Dirk and Duncan, Tim."
ROUND 5
As noted above, once I took Durant, I targeted Jabari Parker in the fifth round to fill the void. If he finishes in the top 25 in Fantasyland, as I think he will, the added production value of this Round 5 pick will help make up a significant chunk of Durant's missing production the first couple of months.
I sucked it up and took Kevin Durant in the first round, despite his uncertain health. You're in the same boat as Rajon Rondo. How do you feel about taking him early in the fifth round?
Karabell: "In a points league, I'm all about the double-double options, whether it's big rebounders or top assist options. Nobody expects Rondo to participate in more than 70 games but when he's out there's really valuable. Fifth round made sense. I don't mind a brittle player or two."
ROUND 6
Speaking of volume guys, MCW once again will fit that description on the thin-rostered Philadelphia 76ers, once he is healthy. Since no one seems to know whether that will be opening night or a couple of months from now, his draft stock has dropped. However, I see terrific value in taking him at No. 55, especially in this format, where his percentages won't kill me (as they might in roto) and the payoff in the second half of the season when he is healthy could be a difference-maker.
Lance Stephenson seemingly landed in a good spot in Charlotte, where he will be a significant contributor. What are your expectations for him in his new digs?
McCormick: "Stephenson enters Charlotte with some pretty impressive momentum as a fantasy commodity, especially in a points league like this draft format, where the Brooklyn-bred guard ranked third among shooting guards last season as a complementary commodity for the Pacers. It's difficult to project a significant spike in minutes for Stephenson given that he already averaged 35.3 per night in Indiana last season, but you would think we'll see sizable leaps in shooting volume [just 11.2 FGA last season] while a ball-dominant distribution role [he had just 88 fewer assists than Kemba Walker last season] should again lead to elite assist totals for a shooting guard. At arguably the thinnest position in the NBA, Stephenson's profile screams statistical ascent to me.
ROUND 7
Keeping with my theme of drafting players who normally don't end up on my roto rosters, I took Tony Parker, who doesn't shoot 3s or rack up steals. In points, though, his tremendous percentages, combined with quality scoring and assists, make him enticing at this stage of the draft.
I've seen Jrue Holiday falling way too far in drafts lately. In my opinion, you got a steal at No. 64. What are your thoughts on Holiday for 2014-15?
Huang: "His success will be dictated in large part to how he rebounds from the knee injury and his play with Anthony Davis. People are failing to realize that having Davis around could augment his number like any teammate of LeBron James. He will have ample opportunity to score and dish dimes and from what scouts say, his 3-point shot is even better. As a PG No. 2, to me he's a 1-A."
ROUND 8
If Tony Parker wasn't so steady in this format, I might have reached for Reggie Jackson in the previous round just to make sure I got him. He is going to be a very solid points-league play with Durant out. And 'm counting on that increased volume to help me fill out the stats I'll be missing while Durant is down.
In the previous round, you took the aging Tim Duncan and paired him with the up-and-coming Markieff Morris. Do you like the combo?
Quintong: "In a head-to-head format, Duncan seems to be a solid pickup because he'll be useful when the Spurs decide to utilize him. But when he'll need to take breaks, I feel confident in the up-and-coming Morris to provide solid stats on a regular basis."
ROUND 9
I may be in the minority, but I think the odds are good that we will see career highs in assists and FG% from Jennings this season. He's only 25, extremely talented, and has a coach with a successful offensive scheme. I expect Stan Van Gundy to draw the best out of his point guard. Regardless, there is nearly no risk in taking him this late in the draft.
I've taken a flier on Elfrid Payton in a couple of drafts, because I view talented rookies like lottery tickets; the payoff could be huge. What are your expectations for the young point guard?
McKitish: "Rookies -- particularly point guards -- have paid off quite well in recent seasons. Over the past three seasons, we've seen Michael Carter-Williams, Damian Lillard, Kyrie Irving, and Ricky Rubio return great value in their rookie seasons. Payton very well could be the next player on that list. He may struggle to score and he'll hurt owners with his field goal percentage, but he's going to rack up steals and assists in the now-dynamic Magic backcourt. Given his upside, he's one of my favorite targets any time after the 8th round."
ROUND 10
I would rather have taken Larry Sanders or Giannis Antetokounmpo here, but I needed a power forward, and Tobias Harris is a nice roll-the-dice option here. He could well outperform this draft spot, but it's late enough in the draft that I can just drop for a hot waiver pickup, if he flops early on.
ROUND 11
Just in case Carter-Williams ends up sitting for an extended period during the season, I have Tony Wroten to help pick up the slack. He's a good later-round in-draft handcuff for MCW in any format.
ROUND 12
I'm loving Enes Kanter as a late-round sleeper. He doesn't have elite upside, but he is slated to start after averaging better than 14 PPG, 8 RPG and 50 FG% in that role last season. If that's a baseline for him, he's a safer pick that some might expect.
ROUND 13
With the Bucks' frontcourt rotation wide open, any of the Bucks is worth a look. John Henson has a good shot at being a steady contributor, and if Jabari Parker stumbles out of the gate or gets hurt early on, Henson could pick up some of the slack for both the Bucks and my team.