Some routes produce more than others.
Each receiver has what I like to think of as a route portfolio, made up of digs and posts and drags and deep fades. And it's the percentages of those routes that make the difference: the more often a receiver runs the more efficient routes, the better - we can see it in the numbers. And the coverages their opponent plays can make a difference on the margins, too.
Welcome to Next Gen Stats corner: where we break down little fantasy advantages hidden deep in the player tracking data. We're talking receivers' routes, run stopping matchups and premiere sack opportunities today.
But let's start with the routes. Last week we focused on players in new offenses with a new route portfolio. Today we're featuring three players who are seeing significant year-over-year changes to their route rates -- for better or for worse -- and one rookie whose route profile is alarming.
Route Rate Takeaways
Upgrade: DK Metcalf, WR, Seattle Seahawks
Clearly Metcalf's overall situation is a downgrade from a year ago: Russell Wilson to Geno Smith will do that. But there is a glimmer of hope here in the routes he's running relative to last season. There are fewer go and deep fades, which is a good thing for Metcalf: not only does he no longer have perhaps the best deep ball passer in the game throwing to him, but those are less efficient routes on average. He's running more digs, more drags and more deep outs. Again, nothing is great about Metcalf's situation, but this should mitigate the drop.
After two straight weeks of sub-40-receiving-yard games, Seattle's Week 3 contest against Atlanta has a better than average chance to be a breakout. The Falcons run a high rate of single-high coverage -- both Cover-1 and Cover-3 -- and while Metcalf's go routes and deep fades are down this year, he does still run them at a decent clip. And those routes, along with the medium crossers he frequently runs - are better against single-high.