Friday features 15 games, all under the lights, with a dearth of strong pitching matchups but a few sneaky good spots to look out for. In other words, it'll be a DFS tournament player's dream, at least with respect to pitching. Cash players may not be so appreciative, but with a full slate there are a couple of safe spots to target as well. Offense around the league is beginning to pick back up, so expect some runs to be scored.
The dog days of summer are upon us, so here's everything you need to know to keep your cool on a busy Friday night of fantasy baseball.
Pitching
Elite
Madison Bumgarner has failed to record a quality start in just four of his 20 outings. Two of them came in the first three weeks of the season, with the other pair coming recently -- over his previous four efforts, in fact. This isn't to suggest that there's anything to worry about long term -- it's merely to remind you that even the best pitchers run into a clunker now and again.
It does cause a bit of a pause as far as figuring out whether you should use the 26-year-old lefty in DFS cash games, as the San Francisco Giants travel to the Bronx for an interleague set with the New York Yankees. The hosts sport a below-average weighted on base average (wOBA) versus lefties, but they also don't fan much. Since the blowup potential is minimal and Bumgarner will rack up ample punchouts regardless, he's indeed a fine DFS cash play for Friday, just not worth the high cost if you're looking to take down a tournament.
There's only one other hurler landing in the elite range, as Gerrit Cole makes his second start since returning from a lengthy disabled list visit. Driving the high ranking is a soft home matchup against the Philadelphia Phillies in pitcher-friendly PNC Park. Before he missed over a month with a strained triceps, Cole was having a good but not great start to the campaign, with a 7.5 K/9 that is well below his career mark, and a 2.8 BB/9, which is a bit high. As he has throughout his career, the 25-year-old righty has been stingy with the long ball, allowing only three in 72 1/3 frames. The Phillies whiff at an above-average clip, but it's not likely Cole goes past six stanzas and maybe into the seventh with a low pitch count -- all of which reduces his GPP potential. He's in play for cash, but if you're looking to pay up, Bumgarner is a better choice.
Solid
Park factors are an important consideration when analyzing matchups, but they're not the be-all, end-all. A perfect example is the Milwaukee Brewers. Using Baseball Info Solution's (BIS) three-year average ballpark index rankings, Miller Park is tied for the second-best venue for runs with a 107 index, meaning that runs are scored 7 percent more than a neutral ballpark. This suggests that using pitchers on the road against the Brewers is a risk.
The more important factor is the Brewers' wOBA at home (a stat that is not park-corrected), which is merely league average. This doesn't mean Jason Hammel is a perfectly safe option as the Chicago Cubs make the short trip north, but considering the Brew crew whiff at a league-worst 27 percent at home versus righties, the Cubs veteran is definitely in play for GPP action as well as cash, since his floor is reasonably high.
Let's have some more fun with park factors. U.S. Cellular Field is a hitter's park, right? Not so fast, grasshopper. According to BIS, The Cell slightly depresses run scoring. It's a plus for homers, but in terms of a hurler's ERA, it's actually a little bit helpful. Further, the Chicago White Sox are below average in terms of wOBA against righties. If you had any reservations using Michael Fulmer in a road tilt as the Detroit Tigers continue a set in the Windy City, calm your fears.
How about one more example of surprising park factors before we return to the usual analysis? Kauffman Stadium is perceived as a pitcher's haven, but using BIS data, it checks in as one of the top 10 best locales for runs. The factor is 104, so the increase is a modest 4 percent, but the point is The K isn't the streaming paradise that many intuit. Therefore, if you were planning on using the Texas Rangers' Yu Darvish against the Kansas City Royals due to the favorable park, you may want to reconsider -- especially since the Royals are slightly above average at home versus righties in terms of wOBA, and Darvish has thrown only one game, lasting 4 2/3 innings after coming off the disabled list with his shoulder stiffness.
Sometimes it's not park factors that mislead, but team splits. Sean Manaea should seemingly be safe at home against the Tampa Bay Rays, who have scored the fifth fewest runs on average in the majors. The problem is that the Rays boast the game's best road wOBA versus lefties. The Oakland Athletics' rookie southpaw isn't so safe anymore. The kicker here is that the Rays strike out at an above-average pace, so Manaea is in play for GPPs, just not as safe a cash play as he might be perceived.
Tanner Roark has tossed at least seven frames in five straight starts. He's fanning less than a batter an inning, which tempers his game score and DFS potential, but innings accrue DFS points, so he's still been useful. The Washington Nationals righty is in a great spot to take a few extra punchouts onto his ledger with the San Diego Padres and their 25 percent strikeout rate versus right-handers on the road, as they visit Nationals Park. Roark could be the best play on the board in all formats.
Skipping down a few spots in the projected game scores to find another DFS-worthy option, Adam Conley is in a favorable spot with the Miami Marlins hosting the New York Mets in the first game of a weekend set in South Beach. The sophomore southpaw had an uneven first half, but it came with more ups than downs. The Mets whiff at an elevated 24 percent pace against lefties, and they'll be trotting out Logan Verrett to the Marlins Park hill, so Conley and his 8.9 K/9 should rack up some punchouts and he'll be in play for the win.
Matt Shoemaker continues to be disrespected in terms of low salaries, though this time it's matchup-driven, as facing the surging Houston Astros in Minute Maid Park is a tall task. Still, we've seen enough from the Los Angeles Angels righty to consider the rebirth real, which means he's a solid GPP option against an Astros club that fans at a 24 percent clip with a righty on the hill.
Streamers
Sorry, let's sneak in one more park reference. Minute Maid Park embellishes power, but it's neutral for runs. Considering the visiting Angels tote a rather tame attack versus righties, Lance McCullers is very much in play as a spot starter. His ownership is 55 percent in ESPN leagues, but that's close enough to the 50 percent cut-off to deserve a mention as clubs battle to make the playoffs in their head-to-head leagues.
Archie Bradley is finally showing that he belongs in the bigs for good, as he's tossed six frames in five of his past six outings. Next up are the Cincinnati Reds in the Great American Ballpark. Bradley's primary weakness is still control, but since the hosts are one of the least patient teams in the league, Bradley and his 12 percent ESPN ownership should grow for this encounter.
Jake Odorizzi's whiff and walk rates are in line with his career marks, but due to a high home run rate, the Rays righty is registering his highest ERA since joining the club. Big flies are less of a concern here, as Odorizzi takes the hill in O.co Coliseum to challenge an Athletics squad that is near the bottom with respect to homers versus righties. If you're not in one of the 46 percent of ESPN leagues in which he's already on a roster, Odorizzi warrants a pickup for this affair.
Can it really be as simple as raising his glove to better hide the ball and not tip his pitches? That's what Eduardo Rodriguez did his last time out, and after stifling the Yankees in his return to The Show, it's so far, so good. Rodriguez fanned only one in seven frames, but he walked just two on four hits. The Boston Red Sox lefty is in a great spot to follow up that effort in a positive manner against the Minnesota Twins in Fenway Park. The visitors' offense has awoken of late, but they're still whiffing at an above-average rate. Rodriguez also checks in with DFS GPP potential.
Avoid
Aside from the trio registering an automatic avoid with a projected game score of 45, Luis Perdomo visiting the Nationals and James Paxton toeing the rubber in Rogers Centre against the Toronto Blue Jays are both severe ratio risks without providing any strikeout upside.
If we missed a name you're curious about, please take advantage of the comments section or hit me up on Twitter @ToddZola.
Hitting
The Red Sox's offense is back in gear, hitting on all cylinders. One of the reasons is the return of Brock Holt, who is one of the lesser-priced options in a great spot with the platoon edge over Kyle Gibson. Another avenue to get exposure here is via Travis Shaw, another lefty swinger facing the middling righty. Of course, there's David Ortiz, though another means of getting differentiation is fading Big Papi and using Hanley Ramirez; Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia and Xander Bogaerts round out the usual suspects.
There's a good chance Dylan Bundy makes some cameo appearances in the streaming section as the second half unfolds, but for now he's a risk -- especially when facing a potent offense like the one the Cleveland Indians have. Switch-hitter Carlos Santana leads it off against righties, followed by Jason Kipnis and Francisco Lindor. Lonnie Chisenhall and Tyler Naquin are lesser-known (and lesser-priced) options.
If the White Sox were really serious about getting into the race, they'd find someone other than Jacob Turner to throw against the Tigers. Lefty, righty, who cares -- everyone's in play. Ian Kinsler, Miguel Cabrera and Nick Castellanos will be the popular targets, with Victor Martinez, Justin Upton and Cameron Maybin also in the mix.
Most likely to hit a home run: It's hard to imagine the Tigers not taking Turner deep, so let's give Kinsler the nod since he'll be assured the most chances to do it.
Most likely to steal a base: At 33 years of age, Michael Bourn still has the wheels to take advantage of a weak battery, so look for the Diamondbacks outfielder to do some running against the Reds.