The only constant in sports (and life) is change. While consistency is key to a winning strategy, the ebb and flow of production often can't be avoided.
Tracking the endless ups and downs over 40 games and nearly four months can become a heady operation. Segmenting the journey, however, into weekly updates allows managers to live (and play) in the now.
That's exactly what my Risers and Fallers column aims to accomplish, as we utilize ESPN's metrics database for a deeper look at the numbers.
Risers
Megan Gustafson, Center, Phoenix Mercury (19.0% rostered, +10.3)
Gustafson was thrust into the Mercury's starting lineup on the heels of Brittney Griner's temporary absence. The Iowa product acquitted herself well over that time, recording at least 14 points (on exactly 13 field goal attempts) as well as 8 rebounds in back-to-back efforts. While Gustafson's minutes were nearly halved on the heels of Griner's return, the 26-year-old continued to be productive off the bench. She sank 4 of 5 field goals while managing 3 boards and 2 dimes in Phoenix three-point loss versus Dallas on Sunday. Griner's return obviously caps Gustafson's minutes but the backup center has proven herself to be a solid insurance policy.
Danielle Robinson, Guard, Atlanta Dream (7.1% rostered, +3.6)
Robinson is a solid all-around producer. Her minutes (and subsequent upside) don't compete with those of Rhyne Howard or Allisha Gray, but she is a starter on a squad fighting for a spot in the playoffs. Atlanta has been fourth in pace (96.60) and eighth in defensive efficiency (103.9) over the team's past seven games. That means there should be a surplus of touches available to the Dream members.
While Robinson is coming off a dud of a game from a shooting perspective, her work on the glass and as a facilitator remained steady last Sunday. The game was also preceded by three consecutive double-digit point efforts (10, 17, 12). Furthermore, leads the Dream team in assist ratio (32.8), registering an average of 3.3 dimes per game. Consider the 34-year-old a savvy stream down the stretch.
Karlie Samuelson, Forward, Los Angeles Sparks (19.5% rostered, +3.2)
Samuelson has found herself in and out of the L.A.'s starting lineup throughout the season. Samuelson's minutes have boomed since the start of the month, however, as the 28-year-old has averaged 27.5 minutes per contest over her last nine outings. The increase in playing time has resulted in an increase in production. Samuelson currently leads the Sparks in Effective Field Goal Percentage (62.6%) and True Shooting Percentage (68.6%). The former Stanford standout is fearless from beyond the arc, registering an average of nearly two 3-point shots per game since Aug. 6. She's a higher variance player, but one who could make a real fantasy difference given the right matchup.
Fallers
Tianna Hawkins, Forward, Washington Mystics (37.1% rostered, -11.8)
Reminder: just because a player is on my list of "fallers" doesn't mean she's a drop candidate. Hawkins has been fire off the bench, posting career-high numbers in every category across the board. She's managed numerous double-digit efforts (4) since the start of the month and her ability as a rebounder provides managers with a solid floor. However, Elena Delle Donne's return figures to negatively affect Hawkins' playing time. Coming off the bench and limited to under 10 field goal attempts per game, Hawkins flex appeal is dampened.
Jessica Shepard, Forward, Minnesota Lynx (74.2% rostered, -8.3)
Dorka Juhasz's hamstring injury triggered a return to the starting lineup for Shepard in early August. The 26-year-old flashed immediately, managing back-to-back double-digit efforts. That initial spark appears to have waned, however, as Shepard has failed to clear 7 points over her last five games. Shepard's rebounds have additionally slipped, as she's managed no more than one board in two of her last three outings. Unfortunately, this trend is ill-timed for fantasy purposes given the number of higher upside options available.
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