Making tough lineup decisions each week can be the most challenging part of the fantasy football process.
My weekly matchup rankings provide a schedule-independent method to evaluate positional matchups, listing all 32 opposing defenses in order of most to least favorable for opposing players at all four skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). Instead of relying on seasonal totals, we calibrate points-allowed data to show how each defense fared relative to the difficulty of the schedule it has faced. This provides a fairer approach to judging the quality of individual matchups.
Adjusted fantasy points allowed (or Adj. FPA) reflects how far above or below players' weekly fantasy averages that defense held opponents at that position. A positive number means that the matchup is favorable, a negative number means it is unfavorable. Additionally, remember teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers, and these plus/minus averages cover all of a team's personnel at that position.
Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited, nor unfavorable matchup avoided. If you want my -- and ESPN fantasy staff's -- most complete source for whom to start and sit each week, consult our weekly rankings.
All references to fantasy points are for PPR scoring, unless otherwise noted.
Quarterbacks
Matchups highlight: Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets (versus Los Angeles Rams). He's a tough one to trust during our playoffs. He has been held beneath 15 fantasy points in six of 14 games, but Rodgers is in the midst of the softest portion of his 2024 schedule and is coming off a season-best 30.06 points against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Rams have been an up-and-down matchup for opposing quarterbacks. They have allowed three starters to exceed 25 points and held three beneath 10, but their defense still has surrendered the 10th-most fantasy points on passing plays to quarterbacks. With the Rodgers-Davante Adams connection looking as good as it has all year, it's a good week to stream Rodgers.
Others to like:
Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers (versus New Orleans Saints)
Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears (versus Detroit Lions)
Matchup to avoid: Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins (versus San Francisco 49ers). His more conservative approach to running this season -- he has averaged a career-low 1.5 rushing attempts -- has left him more susceptible to the weekly matchups. Against upper-half defenses (toughest 16, using seasonal Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed), Tagovailoa has averaged 13.3 fantasy points, whereas against bottom-half defenses he has averaged 20.5. And bear in mind that each is a five-game sample. The 49ers are sixth in Adjusted FPA for the season and fifth over the past five weeks, having held 10-of-14 opposing starters beneath 15 fantasy points.
Running backs
Matchups highlight: James Conner, Arizona Cardinals (at Carolina Panthers). He's heavily rostered -- both his roster and start percentages in ESPN leagues as of Wednesday represented season highs -- but don't underestimate his matchup appeal. Conner has tallied 20 or more touches in seven of his past 10 games. He's coming off a season-best 30.8 PPR-fantasy-point Week 15, and he again should be heavily utilized with backup Trey Benson nursing an ankle injury. As for the matchup, the Panthers have afforded running backs the most points per game (28.4), most Adjusted FPA (6.6) and third-most points per rushing attempt (0.73) for the season.
Others to like:
Field Yates and Stephania Bell discuss Tony Pollard's injury and whether Tyjae Spears is a good option if Pollard can't go.
Matchup to avoid: Kenneth Walker III/Zach Charbonnet, Seattle Seahawks (versus Minnesota Vikings). After a two-game absence due to a calf injury, Walker is expected to return for the Seahawks, but that only further clouds his and Charbonnet's outlooks. The Vikings have been one of the toughest defenses against running backs, with only four exceeding 12.3 PPR fantasy points in a game against them, three of which were Jahmyr Gibbs (Week 7), Kyren Williams (Week 8) and Bijan Robinson (Week 14) and the fourth Jordan Mason in a 21-touch game (Week 2). The best-case scenario for this backfield is Charbonnet again having it largely to himself with the hopes of a 20-touch workload.
Wide receivers
Matchups highlight: Jakobi Meyers, Las Vegas Raiders (versus Jaguars). Davante Adams' trade to the Jets paved the way for Meyers to take on a huge role in the Raiders' offense. In the past seven weeks, Meyers' 27.7% target share is 13th-best in the league and tops on the Raiders (ahead of Brock Bowers' 26.8%), his 10.2 targets per game average is tied for sixth and his 15.0 PPR fantasy points per game is 17th among wide receivers. With that level of elite usage, Meyers should feast on a matchup with the Jaguars, who have seen six different wide receivers exceed 12 PPR fantasy points against them in the past five weeks.
Others to like:
DK Metcalf, Seahawks (versus Vikings)
Romeo Doubs, Packers (versus Saints)
Liz Loza discusses Terry McLaurin's fantasy potential moving forward.
Matchup to avoid: Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders (versus Philadelphia Eagles). This was a nightmarish matchup for him in Week 11. McLaurin ran 46 routes, saw only two targets and scored 2.0 PPR fantasy points, his worst output this season and the only one of his past 11 games in which he scored fewer than 13 points. Thanks in large part to the play of cornerbacks Cooper DeJean, Quinyon Mitchell and Darius Slay Jr., the Eagles have limited opposing wide receivers to the second-fewest points per target (1.51) and opposing WR1s to the eighth-fewest points per target (1.65). Temper your expectations for McLaurin in the rematch.
Tight ends
Field Yates breaks down whether fantasy managers should consider picking up tight end Brenton Strange.
Matchups highlight: Brenton Strange, Jaguars (at Raiders). Evan Engram's season-ending shoulder surgery presents a sizable opportunity to Strange, who already has been a serviceable fantasy fill-in during Engram's absences. In the five games Engram has missed, Strange averaged 27.2 routes, a 16.7% target share and 10.9 PPR fantasy points, numbers that would rank 10th, ninth and sixth, respectively, relative to the position's seasonal rates, and he also has six red zone targets. Expect him to capitalize on a favorable matchup against a Raiders defense that has seen seven different tight ends score at least 9.8 points in their past seven games, with three of them (Travis Kelce, Week 8; Mike Gesicki, Week 9; Jonnu Smith, Week 11) scoring 25-plus.
Matchup to avoid: Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens (versus Pittsburgh Steelers). He's fantasy's sixth-highest-scoring tight end in his past nine games, averaging 13.6 PPR points thanks to touchdowns in seven of those contests, but don't forget what happened the last time these teams met in Week 11. Andrews was held to three targets and 4.2 points, struggling to find space when frequently matched up against Minkah Fitzpatrick and T.J. Watt. Andrews' 16.0% target share for the season is merely 12th among tight ends, and he has never scored a touchdown in 10 career games against the Steelers. Beware of the downside of this matchup.