Think back to where we were with Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase just three short months ago.
Over the span of his first three seasons in the league, Chase has been fantasy football's No. 7 wide receiver in total scoring, and No. 5 if using per-game averages, but as the season drew near he was still mired in a training camp contract dispute, one significant enough that it legitimately threatened his status for Week 1. Due to his limited preseason and opening-week practice time, he was one of our game's most disappointing players during the season's first two weeks, accruing 12.2 and 7.5 PPR fantasy points in losses to the New England Patriots and Kansas City Chiefs, placing him 40th at his position in scoring.
Chase swiftly got into peak playing shape, however, and went on an all-out tear from that point, beginning with a two-touchdown, 29.8 point Week 3 performance against the Washington Commanders (albeit in another Bengals loss, as they dropped to 0-3). His fantasy managers might appreciate him most for the 45.1 points he scored for them on Week 14's Monday Night Football, but that was his third 40-point performance this season, putting him on a list with Charley Hennigan (1961), Isaac Bruce (1995) and Davante Adams (2020) as the only wide receivers in history who have reached that threshold three times in a single year.
Chase's rapid ascension of the fantasy leaderboard -- his 297.7 points scored from Week 3 forward are 17.8 more than anyone else in the league, and 98.72 more than any other wide receiver -- has made him the most common player found on ESPN playoff teams. His managers in 71.6% of leagues have advanced to their postseasons, and they might reap further rewards by rostering him, as he has an above-average fantasy playoff schedule (@TEN, CLE, DEN, @PIT) and plays for a team that is still mathematically (albeit barely) in the AFC playoff hunt.
Should Chase maintain his current scoring pace, he'd finish with 415.1 PPR fantasy points, second-most in history behind only Cooper Kupp's 439.5 in 2021. If we were to assume Chase follows his torrid pace from Week 3 forward, however, he'd be on track for 425.7. It has been quite a campaign for the fourth-year player still seeking a new deal.
Behind Chase, a pair of players generating a good share of Most Valuable Player Award buzz are the two next most-common on ESPN playoff teams: The Philadelphia Eagles' Saquon Barkley (68.6% of teams), the top-scoring running back and fourth-best player overall (300.0 PPR fantasy points), has been a difference-maker largely thanks to his five games of 30-plus points this season. Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (64.3% of teams), the top-scoring player in fantasy football (321.40 PPR fantasy points), has exceeded 25 points on six occasions, after having been merely the fourth player selected at his position during the preseason.
Here's the entire list of the 50 players who find themselves on the highest percentage of rosters to partake in ESPN fantasy football playoffs. Included are their preseason ADPs (average draft position) and year-to-date totals in PPR scoring. Below, you'll find more of my musings on trends that caught my eye.
Takeaways
Even if it might not feel like it -- ask managers who selected Christian McCaffrey No. 1 how they feel about that -- this has been more of a "chalky" year than usual. Six of the top 10 and 12 of the top 20 players drafted on average during the preseason made it onto the roster of a playoff team in at least half of ESPN leagues. Having a late first-round pick has been much more reward than penalty in 2024, as the Nos. 7 (Chase), 8 (Justin Jefferson) and 10 (Barkley) picks all had at least 59.3% playoff representation, and the Nos. 11 (A.J. Brown), 12 (Garrett Wilson), 13 (Puka Nacua) and 14 (Jahmyr Gibbs) on the backswing also are on at least 50%.
It's apparently hip to draft a rookie tight end! One year after the Detroit Lions' then-rookie Sam LaPorta appeared on an ESPN playoff team in 60.4% of leagues, Las Vegas Raiders rookie Brock Bowers helped his teams advance in 61.0%. That should come as no shock, considering Bowers set the single-season rookie tight end record for receptions (87) by Week 14, while his 205.7 PPR fantasy points lead his position by 21.7. Should Bowers maintain his current scoring pace, he'd finish with 269.0 points, obliterating LaPorta's record of 239.3 and placing 14th on the position's single-season list.
Now combining each of the previous two thoughts: Of the top 20 players found on ESPN playoff teams, Bowers was the only player selected outside the first six rounds on average during the preseason. He went 108th overall (11th round). Every other player was selected no later than 52nd (Joe Burrow).
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen's record-setting Week 14 vaulted him up the list by a decent margin (roughly 4% of leagues), as he's the second most-common quarterback to be found on an ESPN playoff team. He has now had a rate of at least 58% in each of the past three seasons, the only player who can claim that.
Strangely, 2024 was not a year for waiver-wire wonders -- though in-season additions did have their share of meaningful contributions. Among wholly undrafted players, Tampa Bay Buccaneers kicker Chase McLaughlin (44.4%) and tight end Cade Otton (43.3%), Miami Dolphins tight end Jonnu Smith (42.7%), New York Giants running back Tyrone Tracy Jr. (41.8%) and San Francisco 49ers running back Isaac Guerendo (36.9%) were the only ones who made it onto a playoff roster in at least 30% of ESPN leagues.
If we're to soften the above threshold for pickups, however, then the Minnesota Vikings defense (53.5%), Pittsburgh Steelers kicker Chris Boswell (53.0%), Philadelphia Eagles defense (52.2%), Detroit Lions kicker Jake Bates (51.8%) and Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (47.0%) were also notable names on the list who were either final-round picks or players picked in less than half of ESPN leagues during the preseason. The inclusion of two defenses -- and two others which were easily obtainable during the preseason or in September (Pittsburgh Steelers 48.9%, Denver Broncos 44.4%) -- and three placekickers on the list only further strengthened the case for a zero-cost, streaming-style strategy to fill both of those positions.
To highlight one late-round pick who made a major difference, Washington Commanders rookie Jayden Daniels, the No. 5 scoring quarterback and No. 7 player overall (261.76) for the season thus far, made it onto a playoff roster in 52.8% of leagues. That's quite a bit of profit earned by managers who selected him in the 12th round on average (No. 102 overall).
As the football fan in us follows the Allen-Jackson-Barkley MVP race, the fantasy manager in us will surely be rooting for them to continue to lead us towards championship glory. Can they maintain their current fantasy point paces, and might one of them eclipse Chase as the No. 1 player on the list of fantasy finalists?
Check back right here in two weeks, as we'll update the list when the league finals dawn. In the meantime, best of luck if you have advanced this far!