Last season, IBM introduced IBM Insights, a tool that uses Watson AI to analyze thousands of fantasy articles, blogs, websites and podcasts and provide support data to assist with fantasy football decisions.
Watson outputs an estimated scoring range for each player, as well as projecting the chances that a player will exceed the upside estimate ("boom") or fall short of the low-end estimate ("bust") on any given week.
For those looking for a tool to concentrate various web opinions into one location in order to help make roster moves, IBM offers Watson's Insights as an unsupervised, quantitative supplement to the more in-depth, personalized analysis that you would normally expect from an ESPN analyst.
The following article points out a few notable insights from Watson for Week 16 of the NFL season, as of early Friday afternoon.
Running back decisions
This article rotates through different positions each week. Though this was naturally the week for either tight end or defense, it is also the fantasy championship week in most leagues.
As such, today we'll come back to one of the primary staple positions: running back. Here are a few who stand out in IBM Insight's projections for this week.
Projections higher than rank
Jaylen Samuels, Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints
Weekly rank 72, 25th among eligible RBs
High projection: 22.9 fantasy points
Low projection: 9.2 fantasy points
Boom chance: 0.20
Bust chance: 0.07
Samuels is in this space for the second time during the fantasy playoffs, again expected to start at running back with James Conner (ankle) listed as doubtful. With Conner out the last two weeks, Samuels has comfortably out-touched and outproduced Stevan Ridley. Samuels has averaged 85.0 rushing yards and 47.0 receiving yards (on 4.5 receptions) during his two weeks as the starter, and Insights projects him to be heavy volume again if he indeed starts again on Sunday.
Watson's Insight: The Steelers really ride their running backs, and if Samuels gets Conner-like touches, he has big impact potential again this week.
Elijah McGuire, New York Jets vs. Green Bay Packers
Weekly rank 108, 36th among eligible RBs
High projection: 18.4 fantasy points
Low projection: 6.0 fantasy points
Boom chance: 0.13
Bust chance: 0.27
McGuire took over as the lead running back when Isaiah Crowell went on injured reserve but has faced two strong defenses in the last two weeks. He has averaged 51.0 yards rushing on 2.9 YPG and 26.0 yards receiving on 3.0 receptions in games against the Buffalo Bulls and Houston Texans. On Sunday, Insights projects him with a solid game against the Green Bay Packers' defense, though he also is projected with twice the likelihood to bust as to boom, so proceed with caution.
Watson's Insight: McGuire is the lead back for the Jets, and he has a solid but risky chance to produce against a Packers defense that has allowed 4.6 yards per attempt this season.
Most likely to go boom/Least likely to bust
Marlon Mack, Indianapolis Colts vs. New York Giants
Weekly rank 66, 22nd among eligible RBs
High projection: 19.4 fantasy points
Low projection: 7.9 fantasy points
Boom chance: 0.25
Bust chance: 0.08
Mack ran all over the Dallas Cowboys last week with a career-best 139 yards and two touchdowns to play quite a few teams into the fantasy finals. He has produced 90 total yards and/or a touchdown in four of the last five games, and Insights gives him more than three times the likelihood to surpass his high projection than to fail to reach his low this week against the Giants.
Watson's Insight: Mack is peaking at the right time for fantasy managers, and Insights projects him as a relatively safe bet to produce against the Giants.
Josh Adams, Philadelphia Eagles vs. Houston Texans
Weekly rank 112, 39th among eligible RBs
High projection: 18.3 fantasy points
Low projection: 3.5 fantasy points
Boom chance: 0.25
Bust chance: 0.09
Adams had to leave last week's game against the Rams twice with back issues that he was able to return from, and he is part of a backfield committee including Wendell Smallwood and Darren Sproles. Nevertheless, Insights projects Adams with almost three times the likelihood to surpass his relatively high projection than to fail to reach his modest low projection this week against the Texans.
Watson's Insight: Adams may be part of a three-back committee for the Eagles, but Insights projects him with solid production and a much better chance to excel than to fall short against the Texans.