Fixing Arsenal: What Arteta & Co. can do to actually pull off their youth-oriented rebuild

Actually, the attack is just mediocre, period. They're 10th in goals scored (1.4 per match) and 11th in xG (1.5). They had a serious shot volume problem last season and early in this season, and while they've addressed it (they're currently sixth in shots per possession), they did so mostly with low-quality shots (14th in xG per shot). Unless they're creating rare counter-attacking opportunities, they don't create many clean looks -- 84% of their shots have come with at least two defenders between the shot and the goal. It's an improvement from last year's 83%, but it still ranks 13th in the EPL.

When you're great at building on leads, but you're falling behind a lot, you're a pretty poor performer in close games. Even with Wednesday's 1-0 win over Chelsea, Arsenal average a paltry 1.05 points per game in matches decided by 0-1 goals, good for 15th in the league. At the same time, they've won 10 matches by 2+ goals, mostly against bad teams -- four against teams that have been relegated, two against Newcastle, one against Southampton.

There is luck and randomness in close-game performance, and Arsenal's terrible average will likely improve next season. But mediocrity in attack will still probably keep said average low.

Their biggest issue: no easy chances

Under Arteta, Arsenal have done well to establish some of the basics of the possession game: they average 6.4 passes per possession (fourth in the league) and 27.0 seconds per possession (second). Their direct speed (the average meters the ball progresses vertically in a given sequence) is the fourth-lowest behind possession-dominant Manchester City, Chelsea and Southampton. (Southampton is more possession-aspirant than possession-dominant under Ralph Hasenhuttl, but you get the idea.)

Arsenal also finish 42% of their possessions in the attacking third, fifth-best and up from 39% last season. But they've gotten to this point without creating any of the easy chances that the best teams in the league create. They begin only 6.8 possessions per match in the attacking third (11th), allow 14.2 passes per defensive action (12th) and allow 5.4 passes per opponent possession (13th). This is another way in which the aging core of attackers has not helped.

Even possession teams can occasionally spring scoring opportunities by completing a well-placed "long ball," but Arsenal rarely does that. They don't attempt many, like most possession-heavy teams (9% of their passes go 25+ yards, fifth-fewest in the league), but they also don't complete many of the ones they try either (46%, 10th). Granit Xhaka has been brilliant in this regard, completing 121 of 171 long balls this season (71%) -- among EPL players with at least 150 longball attempts, only Manchester City's Rodri (73%) has been more accurate -- but that only highlights how poor everyone else on the team has been.

One way or another, the best teams create easy scoring chances for themselves. Arsenal don't, and they would do it far less without Xhaka, who has likely been the team's most valuable player. He not only completes the most long balls, but he's also recorded by far the most ball recoveries and won more than 50% of his duels and aerials on a team that desperately needs all of those things. They are averaging 1.55 points per game in league play with him and 1.43 without. Their goal differential is +0.52 per match with him and -0.43 without. His absence in the meek, scoreless second leg of the Europa League semifinals against Villarreal -- he suffered a pre-match injury -- was clearly felt.

Xhaka is 28 years old, and his contract runs another two years. He is said to have a strong relationship with Arteta (it wouldn't be hard to see why), but his future with the club is murky.

But really, whose isn't?

How's this offseason going to go?

Despite middling results, financial losses, the embarrassing stink of the failed Super League venture and growing fan outrage, Kroenke Sports & Entertainment, the club's owner, appears uninterested in selling the club anytime soon. They could do with a PR coup or two -- usually accomplished via some big-name talent acquisition -- but it's unclear how that might come about. They don't have as much spending power as some other big clubs, and Arsenal need to skew younger than most "big names" in their acquisitions anyway.

The best outcome of this offseason, then, would be the creation and execution of an actual plan. Conceiving of such a thing will likely require answering the following questions.

1. Who's leaving?

Various rumors suggest that 29-year-old goalkeeper Bernd Leno, 34-year-old center-back David Luiz (whose contract is finally expiring), 26-year-old right-back Hector Bellerin and perhaps some combination of Xhaka, Lacazette and Willian could either ask, or be asked, to leave. Loanees like midfielders Ainsley Maitland-Niles, Joe Willock, Matteo Guendouzi and Lucas Torreira could all end up making permanent moves away.

Moving Xhaka with two years left on his contract -- especially with the value he's created and the lack of midfield depth on the roster -- would probably be a mistake, but none of the others above are particularly irreplaceable. Lacazette, whose contract expires next year, has been productive this season, but not at a level that developing players like Nketiah (if retained), Balogun and Martinelli couldn't replace to some degree with more playing time.

1a. What about the Madrid duo?

Midfielders Dani Ceballos and mid-year addition Martin Odegaard are both on loan from Real Madrid; Ceballos, 24, has easily been one of the team's better players in his second year with the club, with an 87% pass completion rate and 27 chances created. Odegaard, 22, has alternated between inconsistency and moments of wonder.

Ceballos has declared his desire to move back to Spain and while Odegaard appears more open-minded, Real Madrid has declared they have no intention of selling him. The asking price would likely be far beyond Arsenal's range. Losing either or both of them, however, would further diminish depth in the midfield and assure that the club would need to acquire at least one possession-friendly midfielder.

2. Who's actually going to be part of the next great Arsenal team?

Last offseason, I said that it appeared Arsenal was at least three years from reaching any sort of Liverpool-esque peak window. It's safe to say that after a lost season, they're still three years away at the least, which means any sort of core they build needs to be made up of guys who will be within their generally accepted peak age (25 to 29, generally) three years or so from now.

Tierney and center-backs Rob Holding and Gabriel fit within that range; so does Nicolas Pepe, the perpetually tantalizing, 25-year-old winger whom Arsenal paid way too much for in 2019. Pablo Mari and Partey will both be 30 three years from now, but could obviously still be of use. Plus any number of the group of exciting young attackers -- Saka and Smith Rowe in particular -- could be in brilliant form despite still being short of their peak.

That's Arsenal's core if it chooses to accept it.

Is it good enough to compete for a Premier League title if the players involved develop properly? Probably not, but it wouldn't be too far off the pace.

4. Where are the biggest holes in creating that team?

There is a short-term hole to be addressed at goalkeeper if Leno leaves, and while Soares or perhaps Calum Chambers could take over at right-back if Bellerin leaves, they don't seem like long-term solutions.

The biggest holes, however, come in midfield. Arsenal needs at least one more high-quality passer to likely replace Ceballos and at 28, Xhaka likely isn't a long-term building block even if he does remain at the club next season. The academy has produced some exciting attackers, which could help Arsenal's high press and pressure numbers over time, but progressing the ball into dangerous areas is still a requirement, and it's unclear who would be particularly good at that. This should be priority number one.

To the club's credit, they seem to understand this. The Gunners have been linked to midfielders like Rennes' Eduardo Camavinga (18 years old), Brighton's Yves Bissouma (24) and Fulham's Andre-Frank Zambo Anguissa in the transfer rumor mill. Camavinga would come with a massive price tag, but if you're looking to make a bold, PR-friendly gesture, that would be about the best place in the world to start.

Regardless of the names involved, simply showing the fruits of an actual plan would be a step in the right direction. We're used to Arsenal being seen as one of Europe's most progressive clubs, from the Gunners' push for more of a televised presence in the 1980s to the hiring of ultra-progressive Arsene Wenger in 1990s to the building of Emirates Stadium in the 2000s. But as they prepare for a fifth consecutive year without Champions League play -- and a first without any European play since 1996 -- the club's total lack of direction has never been more clear.