OAKMONT, Pa. -- I have a confession to make: I played hooky a few weeks ago.
It was the day before the Memorial Tournament when I made the 3½-hour drive from Dublin, Ohio, to Oakmont, in order to get a first-hand look at this year's U.S. Open venue before all the hoopla and hysteria began.
Even though I get the privilege of walking inside the ropes at twentysomething tourneys each year, I've always felt like I get a better sense of a golf course -- what type of shots it takes to win; what kind of player it favors -- by seeing it from a competitor's perspective.
Here's what I was able to deduce after four hours around Oakmont: It's really freakin' hard.
The best part, though -- and this shouldn't come as a secret to anyone who knows the course -- is that it's not hard because it's gimmicky and tricked up. The course will play just over 7,200 yards this week, features almost no reachable out-of-bounds, no water and has none of the other torture devices used by other older courses to remain effective in the current Big Bang Era of long hitters.
What I decided from my time there is that two main statistics could separate the contenders from the pretenders this week.
The first is driving. No surprise here. The fairways average 26 yards in width, but they're so sloped and pitched that any drive which isn't dead center will likely bound off the firm short grass and into the gnarly rough. If we've learned anything from statistician Mark Broadie, whose strokes-gained findings have become official PGA Tour stats, it's that the old "drive for show, putt for dough" mantra is severely outdated.
So I went looking for players who rank highly in total driving this year -- basically, the guys who hit it both long and straight. It shouldn't come as a shock that Rory McIlroy, Justin Rose and Henrik Stenson all score well in this stat; they're viable candidates for your roster this week. It should also be noted that Paul Casey, Brooks Koepka and Emiliano Grillo -- a few more slightly off-the-radar picks -- also drive it really well.
The other stat that always plays into a U.S. Open, but is especially important this week, is scrambling. The ability to get up and down to save par might not win a guy the John Deere Classic, but 72 of those will get his name on the U.S. Open trophy.
(And yes, the winning score will once again be above par. Angel Cabrera won at 5 over nine years ago and, well, it's not any easier this time around.)
Patrick Reed, Luke Donald, Brandt Snedeker, Matt Kuchar, Charl Schwartzel and everybody's U.S. Open dream winner, Phil Mickelson, are each in the top 35 in scrambling this season.
Now, let's combine the two.