The NBL Championship Series has had four intense games, zero home wins, incredible clutch moments, some press conference shenanigans, a monumental upset, and a whole lot more.
It now all comes down to this: a do-or-die Game 5 to decide who walks away with the Dr. John Raschke Trophy as the 2025 NBL Champions.
Wollongong's WIN Entertainment Centre will host the NBL season's decider on Sunday afternoon - 2:30pm (AEDT) on ESPN - and don't believe anyone who tells you they know what's going to happen. The road team has won every game in this series, including the undermanned Hawks' unlikely victory in Game 4, and there's no telling who has the upper hand going into Sunday's matchup.
From key adjustments that need to be made, teams sweating on injuries, and an off-court dispute threatening to derail everything, here are the big talking points heading into what's expected to be an intoxicating Game 5.
What happened to United in Game 4... and how do they remedy it?
United would admit that they blew a golden opportunity in Game 4. The Hawks had no Trey Kell III, no Sam Froling, and United had their home crowd behind them ready to will them to the title.
Unfortunately for them, a potion of tightness and nerves combined with a substantially increased level of physicality from the Hawks, meant they put together one of their worst offensive games of the season and let their opponents retake the momentum in the series.
"Obviously they ramped up their physicality," United head coach Dean Vickerman said.
"With one point guard, they didn't allow Delly to be a point guard as much... and we needed to have other people advance the basketball. I thought we didn't ever quite find a really good rhythm to initiate offence and get it moving. We expected it, and knew it was coming... it's a war of attrition, there are some tired people out there playing a lot of minutes; at the end of the day, they rebounded better and had more juice in the last five minutes than us."
You give all the credit in the world to Will Hickey and Dan Grida picking United's primary ball-carrier - usually Dellavedova - up full court, and not allowing them to initiate offence. The ball would often stick above the three-point line as United would go through their actions, but Dellavedova had difficulty putting the ball in the right places because of that extra size, length, and physicality on him.
Vickerman indicated that it was perhaps overly physical, but that his team needed to do a better job of absorbing it.
"We just felt like we were in different positions tonight than pretty much the whole year," Vickerman said.
"Not having [Shea Ili], and that secondary pace and ball-carrier at some point. They turn their attention to how much they can make Delly not carry the basketball and not make decisions for our team. Credit to them. They stuck to people... the level of defensive intensity [of] Swaka, Davo, and those guys, they were outstanding."
Dellavedova concurred: "We didn't get a good rhythm," he said. "I've gotta do a better job of getting IC and CG some easier looks. But, we're gonna have some really good solutions for just how to flow into things a lot smoother on Sunday."
That added defensive intensity allowed Hickey, in particular, to get downhill more often than he has thus far in this series, and, even if that didn't result in a basket, it would put pressure on United's defence to keep them on the back foot. Hickey then did a good job exploiting the unique coverages United has thrown at him throughout the series, finishing with 22 points (9-of-20 FG) and eight assists by expertly getting to his spots and showing off a nice touch in that in-between area.
"His pace, coming downhill," Vickerman said of why Hickey was effective in Game 4.
"We had our bigs on him at different points, and I thought he went past them with his speed at different times. I thought his mid-game, his little float game, was pretty impressive tonight, then he knocks in his couple of three-balls."
Depending on Kell III's availability, Tatum may have an important choice to make: either lean on Hickey more as a ball-carrier, because he's shown glimpses of finding advantages against United, or roll with your All-NBL First Team import who's yet to find a rhythm in this series.
For United, Ili's availability becomes paramount. Sure, finding ways to free Dellavedova up to initiate offence is also key, as well as finding different entry points into their actions, but having another point guard and creator on the floor would be unbelievably helpful. It would take substantial pressure off Dellavedova, and allow United to play with a bit more pace.
How to overcome Froling's injury
Froling's Achilles injury puts the Hawks in a really intriguing situation.
First and foremost, it must be stressed that the Hawks are obviously a worse team without Froling; he's one of the premier big-men in the NBL, an All-NBL Second Teamer, and has been able to create advantages more consistently than anyone else over the course of this series. The Hawks' floor drops substantially without him.
With all of that in mind, the injury removes some choice from Tatum, which can actually be a positive thing. People think they want an abundance or choice and freedoms, yet we see far too often how easy it is to become paralysed in the face of too many options. The Hawks' depth means they experience this phenomenon; should they play small, go with bulk possessions down low to Froling, or play a traditional power forward, or roll the dice with a big lineup with Lachy Olbrich at the four, or play shooting lineups? Tatum has a lot of elite lineups he can go to but, because he has so much choice and humans generally have a desire for immediate satisfaction, there's an element of decision fatigue one can experience.
Well, with Froling out, that removes a significant amount of those choices. Again, not having Froling is obviously not preferable, but this Hawks team has the depth to overcome it for a game, and the big-man's absence forces them into a specific style of play.
We saw elite minutes and usage from Olbrich in Game 4, whether it was the big-man operating out of the short roll, or on the low block. He's naturally the person who'll step in and take the bulk of the Froling minutes, bringing elements of a similar skillset but with more mobility and a slightly higher rate of creation.
"That's the shot they were giving us," Tatum said of Olbrich's 13 points, three rebounds, and 6 assists in Game 4.
"Middle pick and roll with [Tyler] at the top, they double it, we throw it in the short roll. Lachy is a really good short roll decision-maker. He's a little wiggly around the basket, but he's effective. We wanted to go inside. We felt Lachy had, not an advantage, but he causes attention, so, when he does that, we get other guys who are able to crash the boards if he misses. He was an asset when he was out there."
It seems likely that's where the Hawks will go first, but we've also seen them go to small lineups with Darius Days at the five, while Mason Peatling was also one of their unsung heroes in Game 4 and can slot into that spot. The Hawks' positional size, combined with United's bigs not really being offensive targets, allows them to play undersized players at the five-spot and not give away too much from either a defensive or rebounding perspective. But, again, the options are far more limited than usual; being able to commit fully to certain lineups without the 'what if' devil sitting on your shoulder can be liberating for all involved, and may allow the Hawks to play more free.
The question will be whether the Hawks can operate without Froling's settling nature on the offensive end for four more quarters. Over this series, Tatum's team has shown a propensity to stagnate due to United's resistance on the perimeter, and Froling is usually there to step up for a settling basket or two; that's why he's a floor-riser for them. Can they cope without that sort of anchor for one more game?
Who'll be available?
Once again, we have both teams sweating on some injuries heading into this one.
The Hawks know they'll be without Froling, but there's still the question of whether Kell III (knee) will be healthy enough to play. Ahead of Game 4, Kell III was out there during shootaround but didn't hit the court. He was clearly limping and seemingly had very little mobility, though Tatum did say that he was "extremely" close to playing. After Game 4, Tatum seemed relatively confident that Kell III would be able to suit up for Sunday's decider.
"Trey should be okay by Sunday," Tatum said.
"Should be. We wanna make sure he's 100%, or enough to go. He's a competitor. At the end of the day, nobody wants not to play in a Grand Final Championship game."
For United, it's all eyes on Shea Ili, who's been out since the middle of Game 2 with concussion symptoms. Ili has passed the NBL's concussion protocols but, because of his history with head injuries, he still had to overcome some of the steps United put in place.
United says Ili will go through a fitness test prior to Game 5 that will determine his availability; he did go through a contact session in the team's last practice before traveling to Wollongong, so there's optimism he'll be okay to suit up for Sunday's do-or-die contest.
Here's hoping the off-court drama doesn't bleed into the game
We'll keep this short, because all eyes should be on the on-court action, and not on the billionaires seemingly set for a corporate war off it.
It was Thursday evening when Hawks owner Jared Novelly sent an email to multiple other team owners around the NBL with a proposal to oust Larry Kestelman as the owner of the league, and for all 10 clubs to purchase it.
That email, obtained and reported on by ESPN, was the culmination of years of tension between Novelly and Kestelman, and led the current league owner to issue a blunt statement on the status of the NBL. "We remain fully committed to the continued and unprecedented growth and success of the NBL," Kestelman said. "The NBL is not for sale."
Novelly began his email by claiming he would be filing "multiple actions" against NBLCo by the end of the month, so expect this situation to end up in the courtroom at some point, all while the animus between the Hawks' billionaire owner and the league has now naturally reached an all-time high.
In saying that, we all take part in and absorb an entire regular season and playoffs so we can get to this very moment: a do-or-die Game 5 that'll decide who's crowned the NBL Champion. To get to this game and not have the entirety of our attention and consciousness be on the basketball contest in front of us feels like a disservice to the players, coaches, and staffers involved, so here's hoping we can put aside the off-court drama for the time being and focus solely on the goings on between the lines at Wollongong's WIN Entertainment Centre.