2015 preview: All 32 teams
No. 2: NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Last Season: 12-4
First place, AFC East; defeated Seattle 28-24 in Super Bowl XLIX
Tom Brady and the New England offense started slowly last season before leading the NFL in scoring from its fifth game forward. Brady has proven to be one of the best at adjusting on the fly. One personnel director said he thought Peyton Manning might have suffered a meltdown by now if forced to go through as many weapons as Brady has over the years. Another key will be whether an upgraded defensive front can offset huge losses in the secondary. Adding rookie DE Trey Flowers and free agent Jabaal Sheard to Chandler Jones and Dominique Easley up front, plus the return of a stout linebacking corps, should partly atone. As always, the Pats will be Super Bowl contenders. -- Mike Sando
As ESPN.com NFL Insider Mike Sando detailed in his 2015 rankings, the Patriots play eight games against Tier 4 quarterbacks, which is tied for second most in the NFL. That gives them one of the easiest "quarterback schedules" when using Sando's tier-based data, and there's no position more important than quarterback. So on the surface, the schedule looks favorable and they still have one of the best coach-quarterback combinations in the NFL, if not the best, in Bill Belichick-Tom Brady (for all 16 games after much uncertainty this offseason).
The cornerback spot is a question mark, with 2014 starters Darrelle Revis (Jets) and Brandon Browner (Saints) now elsewhere. When Browner made his debut in Week 7 of the 2014 season, teaming up with Revis to form a solid 1-2 combination playing primarily press-man coverage, the Patriots allowed just 65 second-half points the rest of the year, the second-fewest in the NFL over that span. Who replaces them? The Patriots are hoping Malcolm Butler can fill Revis' void at left corner, while Tarell Brown is the likely starter on the right side, with Bradley Fletcher and Logan Ryan rounding things out.
Patriots' percentage chance to win each game
Sept. 10 vs. Pittsburgh: 67.2
Sept. 20 @ Buffalo: 59.3
Sept. 27 vs. Jacksonville: 84.4
Oct. 11 @ Dallas: 51.6
Oct. 18 @ Indianapolis: 42.2
Oct. 25 vs. N.Y. Jets: 75.0
Nov. 1 vs. Miami: 68.4
Nov. 9 vs. Washington: 78.8
Nov. 15 @ N.Y. Giants: 58.7
Nov. 22 vs. Buffalo: 68.3
Nov. 26 @ Denver: 44.0
Dec. 6 vs. Philadelphia: 62.1
Dec. 13 @ Houston: 55.3
Dec. 20 vs. Tennessee: 83.2
Dec. 27 @ N.Y. Jets: 61.1
Jan. 3 @ Miami: 52.7
Mike Reiss' game-by-game predictions
Never before has the club taken on the NFL like it did this offseason, first with Robert Kraft publicly calling out the NFL for its investigation into underinflated footballs and then Tom Brady beating commissioner Roger Goodell in court. So the single biggest change this offseason is relations between the team and the league office. It's icier than ever before. As for on the field, it's going to look different without veteran Vince Wilfork at defensive tackle, a spot he primarily manned from 2004-2014. Sealver Siliga, Alan Branch and first-round picks Dominique Easley (2014) and Malcolm Brown (2015) will be asked to fill the void.
"It's a new season for everyone. We all have to reestablish our level of performance whether it's a coach - starting with me - player, assistant coach, anybody else. ... We don't talk about last year. We talk about today. I'm not really worried about some other year or some other time, not living in the past or dreaming about something in the future. This team will be defined by what it does." - head coach Bill Belichick
The Patriots might have a lower win total than recent years - having won 12 games in each of the last three years and 13 games in 2011 - but they should still be in the playoff hunt. The last time they didn't qualify for the playoffs was 2008. The health of tight end Rob Gronkowski will be one of the keys, as he's the primary game-changer outside of Brady on offense. With Brady now available from start to finish, the Patriots have a good chance of becoming the first team to repeat since the 2003-2004 Patriots.
No. 15: MIAMI DOLPHINS
Last Season: 8-8
Third place, AFC East
Give Ryan Tannehill credit even though he's struggled on the deep ball and hasn't won the big game yet. Despite constant O-line shuffling, he recorded career highs in 2014 in completion percentage (66.4), yards (4,045), TDs (27) and QBR (59.1). The rise should continue under new O-coordinator Bill Lazor's Chip Kelly-style offense. The faster pace can help maximize new weapons such as WR Greg Jennings and WR Kenny Stills (72 percent catch rate). DT Ndamukong Suh will have to upgrade a defense that led the NFL in EPA through 10 games, only to rank last over its final six. Some in the league would rather stock their D-line rotation with three or four pieces earning $4 million a year than one piece earning what Suh will earn. That makes the Dolphins an interesting test case on defense. -- Mike Sando
This is the most talented team the Dolphins have had in years, led by the major addition of Pro Bowl defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh. Miami spent $114 million to sign Suh, who immediately fixes the team's 24th-ranked run defense from a year ago. Suh also brings a mean streak and new identity to the defense. Offensively, quarterback Ryan Tannehill is having the best training camp and preseason of his four-year career and looks poised to have a strong season. Miami has plenty of talent on both sides of the football.
The two biggest concerns are the offensive line and overall depth. Miami's top guards -- Dallas Thomas, Billy Turner and Jamil Douglas -- were inconsistent in training camp and the preseason, which could lead to another year of pass-protection issues. Tannehill is the NFL's most-sacked (139) quarterback since 2012, and the problem might continue in Year 4 if Miami can't figure out its interior offensive line. The Dolphins also lack depth behind the starters at several positions, which was apparent in the preseason. A few key injuries would be big trouble.
Dolphins' percentage chance to win each game
Sept. 13 @ Washington: 58.2
Sept. 20 @ Jacksonville: 63.2
Sept. 27 vs. Buffalo: 59.6
Oct. 4 vs. N.Y. Jets (in London): 57.8
Oct. 18 @ Tennessee: 66.4
Oct. 25 vs. Houston: 59.5
Oct. 29 @ New England: 31.4
Nov. 8 @ Buffalo: 42.8
Nov. 15 @ Philadelphia: 38.7
Nov. 22 vs. Dallas: 52.1
Nov. 29 @ N.Y. Jets: 50.7
Dec. 6 vs. Baltimore: 55.1
Dec. 14 vs. N.Y. Giants: 61.7
Dec. 20 @ San Diego: 47.9
Dec. 27 vs. Indianapolis: 48.0
Jan. 3 vs. New England: 46.9
James Walker's game-by-game predictions
The Dolphins made a major overhaul at wide receiver and tight end. Four of the top five pass-catchers from 2014 are gone, replaced by tight end Jordan Cameron and receivers Kenny Stills, Greg Jennings and first-round pick DeVante Parker. Miami believes these targets are a better fit for Tannehill because they are able to make the tough catches, especially in the red zone where the offense struggled in 2014. Holdovers Jarvis Landry and Rishard Matthews also had strong training camps.
The Dolphins believe the sky is the limit. Head coach Joe Philbin, who is 23-25 in three seasons, knows this is an important year for himself and many within the organization. Unlike previous years, Philbin hasn't been afraid to publicly say the Dolphins are aiming to get to the playoffs and win a championship. "I didn't come here to be average and be 8-8," Philbin recently told ESPN.com. "Steve Ross doesn't own the team to be average. Our fans don't want to be average. Our players don't want to be average. So that's what we're here for. That's why we invest and put the effort, the time into what we do."
This is as optimistic as I've been about the Dolphins during Philbin's tenure. The talent upgrade is one reason. But there also is a different energy and confidence about this group. There is pressure to win this year and, barring major injuries, I expect the Dolphins to earn an AFC wild-card berth. They might even push the New England Patriots for a division title. Either scenario would cap a successful year for Miami and provide something to build on in 2016.
No. 18: BUFFALO BILLS
Last Season: 9-7
Second place, AFC East
Even without a topflight quarterback, the Bills have a shot at reaching the playoffs. They return an elite defense that ranked No. 1 in EPA in 2014, edging out Houston and Seattle. Buffalo also added RB LeSean McCoy to an offense led by coordinator Greg Roman, who is known for his scheming of the ground game. But the QB issue is a real thing: Ex-Viking Matt Cassel ranked worse last season in QBR than the guy he was supposed to replace, Kyle Orton (which might explain why Tyrod Taylor was named the starter). Until the Bills find a viable answer under center -- Taylor and EJ Manuel look like longer shots -- this is a team with one very fatal flaw. -- Mike Sando
Because Rex Ryan said so. OK, maybe not. But the Bills did assemble their best roster in a decade or longer, stocked with talent at skill positions -- LeSean McCoy, Charles Clay and Percy Harvin have joined Sammy Watkins -- and across a defense that led the NFL in sacks in 2014. Buffalo had the league's most unsettled quarterback situation in training camp, but the first round of the playoffs seems within reach for the Bills, who will try to get there through running the football, playing strong defense and protecting the ball. In fact, it would be a disappointment if the Bills didn't make it to the postseason for the first time since 1999 after spending more than $90 million in guaranteed money this offseason.
General manager Doug Whaley told coaches interviewing for the Bills' head-coaching vacancy in January that the team is in "quarterback purgatory" because they aren't bad enough to draft a top-flight prospect and aren't likely to stumble upon a franchise quarterback otherwise. It could prove to be the Bills' fatal flaw again this season. Matt Cassel, Tyrod Taylor and EJ Manuel -- not exactly an awe-inspiring trio -- spent the entire preseason competing for the starting job. Taylor, who has attempted just 35 passes in four NFL seasons, won that competition.
Bills' percentage chance to win each game
Sept. 13 vs. Indianapolis: 42.5
Sept. 20 vs. New England: 40.4
Sept. 27 @ Miami: 40.1
Oct. 4 vs. N.Y. Giants: 57.0
Oct. 11 @ Tennessee: 57.6
Oct. 18 vs. Cincinnati: 55.0
Oct. 25 vs. Jaguars (in London): 67.8
Nov. 8 vs. Miami: 56.9
Nov. 12 @ N.Y. Jets: 48.8
Nov. 23 @ New England: 31.5
Nov. 29 @ Kansas City: 39.6
Dec. 6 vs. Houston: 57.3
Dec. 13 @ Philadelphia: 36.8
Dec. 20 @ Washington: 56.1
Dec. 27 vs. Dallas: 50.3
Jan. 3 vs. N.Y. Jets: 62.6
Mike Rodak's game-by-game predictions
The easy answer would be the head-coaching change from Doug Marrone to Ryan, but that would neither give Marrone enough credit for a 9-7 record last season, nor would it consider Ryan's dismal past two seasons with the New York Jets. Instead, let's point to a change at running back. Depleted by injuries last season, Buffalo spread the carries around and ranked 26th in yards per carry. Now the Bills have a scheme that should heavily feature McCoy, the NFL's second-most-prolific runner over the past two seasons. If the Bills are to overcome their deficiency at quarterback, it starts with McCoy.
Ryan hasn't shied away from predicting his team would make the postseason. His first proclamations came at his introductory news conference in January and his prognostications continued as the team broke training camp. "Look, we definitely expect to be in the playoffs, period," Ryan said Aug. 25. "We said that since Day 1. We got no qualms about it. We expect to be in there. We know and realize that a lot of things can happen, but we expect to be in. We got a good football team."
"We're moving in the right direction." I don't expect the Bills to make the trip to San Francisco for Super Bowl 50, but I can easily see Buffalo cracking the six-team AFC playoff field. If that happens, it will be a weight off the shoulders of nearly everyone in the organization, as well as the team's fans. Coaches and players will treat it as a sign of progress, and rightfully so.
No. 26: NEW YORK JETS
Last Season: 4-12
Fourth place, AFC East
Losing your starting quarterback a week into camp might be the single worst way to start a season, but the Jets actually stand to come out ahead. Stepping in while Geno Smith recovers from a broken jaw is Ryan Fitzpatrick, who is better than his 25-41 record as a starter over the past five seasons would indicate. In fact, his QBR in 2014 (56.7) was higher than that of Alex Smith, Andy Dalton and Matthew Stafford. (Geno Smith's QBR ranked 26th, at 44.3.) Fitzpatrick's stat line over the past five seasons lines up almost exactly with those for Dalton, Jay Cutler and Carson Palmer. As with those three, Fitzpatrick has won when he's had a highly ranked defense on his side. The Jets might have that after adding Darrelle Revis, Buster Skrine and Antonio Cromartie to a unit that ranked 25th in EPA and allowed a 31-6 TD-to-INT ratio last season. -- Mike Sando
The Jets' best hope -- their only hope -- is to dominate on defense, which has to be Seahawks-good to claim a postseason berth. They augmented their talented front by rebuilding the secondary, so they have the personnel to succeed in today's pass-happy NFL. With the additions of Darrelle Revis, Antonio Cromartie and Buster Skrine, head coach Todd Bowles has the tools to play his scheme -- man-to-man on the outside, with heavy blitzing. Losing Sheldon Richardson to a four-game suspension (possibly longer) hurts because he's their most active lineman. Rookie Leonard Williams is talented, but he doesn't have Richardson's fire.
Same old story -- they're not good enough at quarterback. Their last starter with a top-10 QBR ranking was Chad Pennington in 2006. That won't change because current starter Ryan Fitzpatrick is a caretaker, and Geno Smith is an enigma. Fitzpatrick can get them to 8-8, but that doesn't mean much because this is a win-now team. Smith has a higher ceiling, but he faces physical and external obstacles -- a broken jaw and a fan base tired of his act. There's no guarantee he will reclaim the starting job when healthy. Yep, this is a quarterback controversy waiting to happen.
Jets' percentage chance to win each game
Sept. 13 vs. Cleveland: 61.9
Sept. 20 @ Indianapolis: 24.3
Sept. 27 vs. Philadelphia: 43.6
Oct. 4 vs. Miami (in London): 41.8
Oct. 18 vs. Washington: 66.9
Oct. 25 @ New England: 24.8
Nov. 1 @ Oakland: 54.5
Nov. 8 vs. Jacksonville: 65.3
Nov. 12 vs. Buffalo: 50.8
Nov. 22 @ Houston: 38.6
Nov. 29 vs. Miami: 48.9
Dec. 6 @ N.Y. Giants: 46.1
Dec. 13 vs. Tennessee: 68.8
Dec. 19 @ Dallas: 30.9
Dec. 27 vs. New England: 38.6
Jan. 3 @ Buffalo: 37.1
Rich Cimini's game-by-game predictions
Going from Rex Ryan to Bowles is like replacing heavy metal with easy listening. The volume will be lower around One Jets Drive, but there will be more accountability than in the past. Bowles is a cross between his two mentors, Bruce Arians and Bill Parcells -- a players' coach with a harder edge than Ryan. Bowles won't tolerate mental mistakes, penalties or being late to meetings. He will have a quicker hook than Ryan when it comes to underperforming starters. He also will have the full support of the front office, which Ryan didn't have.
Privately, the players are thinking the same thing the fans are saying: If the quarterback position produces efficient, if not stellar play, this can be a playoff team. They feel the other pieces are in place to make a run at the Patriots in the AFC East. The organization sees wide receiver Brandon Marshall as its first big-time offensive weapon since Santonio Holmes in 2010. To a man, everybody believes the defense will be a top-five unit. In the end, it'll be "Fitz-Geno" that determines the season.
They will fall short of the playoffs by a couple of games, so the focus will be on how they can upgrade at quarterback. They'll be promoting current rookie Bryce Petty as the possible answer while exploring other options. Fitzpatrick will be a free agent and Smith probably will be pushed out of the picture, so the rumor mill will be churning with possibilities for 2016 -- Sam Bradford, Drew Brees, Robert Griffin III, etc. With a surplus of defensive-line talent, Richardson will be the subject of trade rumors. The future of Muhammad Wilkerson, a free agent, also will be a hot topic.