When we last saw an NFL play that mattered, the Seattle Seahawks were one yard away from their second consecutive Super Bowl championship. Nothing of consequence happened thereafter, of course, and so naturally it make sense for the Seahawks to sit atop ESPN's Week 1 Power Rankings. What? The New England Patriots won Super Bowl XLIX? You wouldn't know it based on their offseason coverage. What does 2015 hold for the Seahawks, Patriots and the NFL? Read on for ESPN.com's season preview. -- Kevin Seifert
No. 1: Seattle
Back in 2011, the year before Russell Wilson arrived, the Seahawks ranked fifth in defensive EPA and had the NFL's seventh-leading rusher in Marshawn Lynch. And they still finished only 7-9. Why? Quarterback play. They ranked 25th in Total QBR. Then came Wilson, who is sixth in QBR over the past three seasons. True, the Seahawks don't ask Wilson to carry them with his arm (he ranks last in pass attempts per start over the past three seasons). But when he does air it out, he makes big plays. Seattle had 54 passes of 20-plus yards last season; add the 83 rushes of 10-plus yards and the Seahawks rang up more explosive plays than any other team. Wilson plus Lynch plus an elite defense makes Seattle a Super Bowl favorite once again. -- Mike Sando
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No. 2: New England
Tom Brady and the New England offense started slowly last season before leading the NFL in scoring from its fifth game forward. Brady has proven to be one of the best at adjusting on the fly. One personnel director said he thought Peyton Manning might have suffered a meltdown by now if forced to go through as many weapons as Brady has over the years. Another key will be whether an upgraded defensive front can offset huge losses in the secondary. Adding rookie DE Trey Flowers and free agent Jabaal Sheard to Chandler Jones and Dominique Easley up front, plus the return of a stout linebacking corps, should partly atone. As always, the Pats will be Super Bowl contenders. -- Mike Sando
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No. 3: Green Bay
Aaron Rodgers' 73.0 QBR trails only Peyton Manning since 2009. Just listen to one opposing offensive coach gush: "Rodgers cuts everything loose because he knows where everyone is going to be. It does not feel like a defeat to him to run it or throw the two-yard checkdown. He throws it joyfully because he knows he is moving the offense." But even the best passers need help, and Rodgers is no exception, especially now that WR Jordy Nelson is out til 2016. The one season Rodgers won the Super Bowl with Green Bay (2010) was also one of only two times in his career that the Packers ranked higher in defensive EPA (third) than they ranked in QBR (fifth). Last season the Pack D ranked seventh in EPA over its final eight games, spurred by Clay Matthews' move to inside linebacker on early downs, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix's emergence as a starter and a diversified rotation up front. It all adds up to Green Bay as one of the offseason betting favorites to win it all. -- Mike Sando
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No. 4: Indianapolis
There's no shortage of love for Andrew Luck. "He is as smart as Peyton, as accurate as Brady, tougher than Ben and as athletic as RG3," says one opposing head coach. But after a crushing AFC championship loss, Indy still finds itself a tweak away from the game's biggest stage. Step one? Getting a consistent run game. Adding RB Frank Gore helps, while adding WR Andre Johnson and WR Phillip Dorsett could help open running lanes from three-receiver personnel. That could help Luck, whose 66.3 percent dropback rate in 2014 was the NFL's third highest. -- Mike Sando
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No. 5: Denver
The Broncos have the NFL's best record (38-10) since Peyton Manning's arrival in 2012. But last year, Manning finally began to show his age. Over the first eight games, he had an 85.0 QBR and a 24-5 TD-to-INT ratio. The final eight: 61.2 and 15-10. "It's arm strength, mobility, everything," says one defensive coordinator. In new coach Gary Kubiak's run-heavy offense, the Broncos will shift some of the burden to RB C.J. Anderson, who averaged 4.7 ypc last year. But even a throwback ground game can't turn back the clock on Manning's right arm. Finding the right run-pass balance on offense is a start, especially for a team with a defense that ranked sixth in EPA last season. The Broncos' winning formula is changing. -- Mike Sando
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No. 6: Dallas
Sometimes a team simply asks too much of its quarterback. From 2006 to 2013, the first eight seasons with Tony Romo, the Cowboys passed 61.7 percent of the time, the seventh-highest rate over that stretch. In 2014: a 16 percent drop, to 51.8 percent. The Cowboys went 12-4 and won a playoff game. "I'm wondering why they haven't done that forever," one offensive coordinator says. But RB DeMarco Murray's departure and the Cowboys' halfhearted attempts at replacing him will test whether a dominant O-line can produce a top-level running game without an upper-tier back. On defense, the hope is that DE Greg Hardy, after his four-game suspension, can improve a pass D that ranked 26th in yards allowed. He might, but losing CB Orlando Scandrick hurts. -- Mike Sando
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No. 7: Pittsburgh
Call it an imbalance of power. In 2014, Ben Roethlisberger threw for a league-high 4,952 yards, leading the Steelers' offense to its best season of the Big Ben era. The defense, however, was its worst by far in EPA in the nine-year history of the ESPN metric. The team addressed the dreadful D in the offseason by drafting 6-foot-4, 269-pound LB Bud Dupree in the first round. The Steelers are also banking on the development of their other young defensive players, particularly rookie corner Senquez Golson and 2014 first-round LB Ryan Shazier. Shazier played just nine games during an injury-plagued rookie season, but he possesses all the physical tools needed to develop. -- Mike Sando
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No. 8: Baltimore
How will Joe Flacco (career-high 66.9 QBR) deal with the departure of O-coordinator Gary Kubiak? "Kubiak's offense was perfect for Flacco," says one personnel director. "The strong run game, play-action throws and big windows created space in the pocket for him." Kubiak's pass-run ratio was a balanced 55-45. New O-coordinator Marc Trestman's 2014 ratio in Chicago, inflated by heavy doses of passes to RB Matt Forte: 63-37. HC John Harbaugh knows the Ravens as presently configured are at their best leaning on the ground game. Maintaining that mindset with Trestman calling plays will be important for Baltimore. "I don't see Flacco as a guy who carries a team," says the director. -- Mike Sando
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No. 9: Philadelphia
Yes, Sam Bradford has the talent to make the Eagles a contender. A healthy Sam Bradford. Provided he can avoid injury (two torn ACLs in two seasons), he should keep the Eagles' O flying alongside offseason prize RB DeMarco Murray. "If he can stay healthy," says one rival coach, "he can be so accurate." The defense has ranked near the middle of the pack in EPA since head coach Chip Kelly arrived two years ago, but improvement is possible thanks to a trade for stud LB Kiko Alonso and the acquisitions (for almost $70M) of CBs Byron Maxwell and Walter Thurmond III. An NFC East crown is certainly within reach. -- Mike Sando
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No. 10: Arizona
Arizona has a 13-2 record in Carson Palmer's past 15 starts, and his 67.6 QBR in those games ranks eighth in the league. But Palmer is coming off ACL surgery at age 35, so there are naturally questions about whether he can hold up for a full season. On the upside, as one personnel director puts it, "He plays well as a stationary dropback QB." To help, Arizona made moves to upgrade its running game (Pro Bowl LG Mike Iupati, who is on the injured list for now) after Andre Ellington & Co. ranked 32nd in yards per carry last season. An improved run game should help take pressure off Palmer. Can the defense do the same without former coordinator Todd Bowles? Even with him, the Cards allowed four opponents to reach 500 yards last season. Getting LB Daryl Washington back (substance-abuse suspension) would help, but there are enough question marks on both sides of the ball to make another 11-win season unlikely. Then again, this team has proved adept at beating the odds. -- Mike Sando
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No. 11: Cincinnati
The Bengals have made the playoffs in each of Andy Dalton's four seasons -- but clearly require some changes: one, a more run-oriented attack that OC Hue Jackson began implementing last season. Expect the Bengals to lean heavily on RB Jeremy Hill, who rushed for 1,124 yards on just 222 carries in 2014. And two: returning their defense to the snarling, physical style that Marvin Lewis believes is needed to compete in the AFC North. Cincy dropped from second to 15th in defensive EPA last season, so it's betting big on a healthier Vontaze Burfict and newly re-signed DE Michael Johnson to turn around the unit. -- Mike Sando
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No. 12: Detroit
The Lions have reached the playoffs twice since drafting Matthew Stafford first overall in 2009. Not surprisingly, those were the two seasons the Detroit defense was significantly better than average in EPA (the team has had a losing record every other year with the QB.) Stafford has led the NFL in dropbacks over the past three seasons with 43.7 per game, but this could be a case of diminishing returns -- even with Calvin Johnson at 100 percent -- as the signal-caller has not proved he can carry such a load consistently. The issue now becomes whether the Lions will ask for even more from Stafford -- more than he can reasonably handle -- after losing DT Ndamukong Suh in free agency. They think an improved running game will help Stafford in particular and the team overall. -- Mike Sando
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No. 13: San Diego
Philip Rivers, now 33, may not have the big-time arm, but he anticipates throws as well as anyone. He played like an MVP through the first half of 2014, with an 86.3 QBR and a TD-to-INT ratio of 20-5. So why did San Diego start 5-3? The main culprits were the team's mediocre D (23rd in EPA) and inept run game (the Chargers ranked 30th in total yards rushing, at just 85.4 per game). That stands to change this year thanks to first-round pick Melvin Gordon. Also, newly signed guard Orlando Franklin should take some of the heat off Rivers. But question marks remain with the front seven, which contributed to San Diego allowing 1,986 yards rushing (26th) and 4.5 ypc (29th). -- Mike Sando
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No. 14: Kansas City
Coaches who've worked with Alex Smith say he possesses an uncanny filter for avoiding turnovers (second to Aaron Rodgers in INT percentage since 2012). Of course, he rarely passes -- 25th in pass attempts per start since 2012 -- and when he does, he doesn't send it far (last in air yards per pass attempt since 2012, with 6.33). Playing it safe with Smith has worked for KC, since its defense allowed 281 points in 2014, the second fewest in the league, and its running game featured Jamaal Charles and his 5.0 ypc. Incoming WR Jeremy Maclin should provide more firepower on those short throws, but it's unclear whether Smith can take advantage of his improved weaponry. And if so, will that be enough to overtake Peyton and the Broncos? -- Mike Sando
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No. 15: Miami
Give Ryan Tannehill credit even though he's struggled on the deep ball and hasn't won the big game yet. Despite constant O-line shuffling, he recorded career highs in 2014 in completion percentage (66.4), yards (4,045), TDs (27) and QBR (59.1). The rise should continue under new O-coordinator Bill Lazor's Chip Kelly-style offense. The faster pace can help maximize new weapons such as WR Greg Jennings and WR Kenny Stills (72 percent catch rate). DT Ndamukong Suh will have to upgrade a defense that led the NFL in EPA through 10 games, only to rank last over its final six. Some in the league would rather stock their D-line rotation with three or four pieces earning $4 million a year than one piece earning what Suh will earn. That makes the Dolphins an interesting test case on defense. -- Mike Sando
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No. 16: New Orleans
Drew Brees was fifth in QBR last season at 73.3, a figure higher than his composite 69.6 score from 2006 through 2013. So all's well, right? Not exactly. Consensus around the league is that Brees has slipped. "He doesn't throw as well," one offensive coordinator says. "His lower body is not as good. He's been nicked up a little bit." Some noticed a certain level of panic creeping into Brees' game, but that seems understandable given how far the New Orleans defense has fallen. One number to watch is interceptions: Brees had 17 last year, third most in the league, thanks in part to the pressure put on him by a D that ranked 32nd in EPA. With the loss of TE Jimmy Graham, the defense can't afford to languish (draft picks 31 and 44 went to linebackers), and the running game has to improve (pressure's on, Mark Ingram and C.J. Spiller). -- Mike Sando
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No. 17: Minnesota
Teddy Bridgewater finished his rookie season with a flourish (seventh in QBR in Weeks 13-17), but the feeling around the league is that he has the physical skills to deveop into only a slightly better-than-average starter. "I question his accuracy," one personnel director says. That's not saying a team can't win with Bridgewater, only that a strong ground game and defense will be part of the equation. The Vikings could be in luck if RB Adrian Peterson returns to form and Mike Zimmer's defense can make a big jump after ranking 19th in EPA his first season as head coach. Xavier Rhodes also made a nice jump at corner last season -- Richard Sherman singled him out as a youngster on the rise -- but Minnesota is a ways from catching Green Bay in the NFC North. -- Mike Sando
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No. 18: Buffalo
Even without a topflight quarterback, the Bills have a shot at reaching the playoffs. They return an elite defense that ranked No. 1 in EPA in 2014, edging out Houston and Seattle. Buffalo also added RB LeSean McCoy to an offense led by coordinator Greg Roman, who is known for his scheming of the ground game. But the QB issue is a real thing: Ex-Viking Matt Cassel ranked worse last season in QBR than the guy he was supposed to replace, Kyle Orton (which might explain why Tyrod Taylor was named the starter). Until the Bills find a viable answer under center --Taylor and EJ Manuel look like longer shots -- this is a team with one very fatal flaw. -- Mike Sando
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No. 19: Carolina
Cam Newton has been compared to Ben Roethlisberger from a physical standpoint, but he's lacking the same accuracy and poise in the pocket. "I don't think he can process the passing game fast enough to throw it to win every week," an offensive coach says. The one winning record Carolina posted with Newton -- 12-4 in 2013 -- coincided with its defense ranking third in EPA. Every other year with Newton, the D ranked between 19th and 31st. Carolina won six or seven games in each of those seasons. The Panthers need to improve their offensive supporting cast to shield Newton from some of the pounding he has taken (no more QB power runs, please). Newton has the physical ability to carry a team, but until he plays to that level consistently, it's tough to bet on his carrying the Panthers to a championship. -- Mike Sando
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No. 20: Houston
Quarterback is once again a problem in Houston. New starter Brian Hoyer ranked 27th in QBR last season (39.8) and is on his fifth team in seven years. The backfield isn't likely to offer Hoyer as much support as hoped, with a groin injury sidelining RB Arian Foster. The Texans do appear to be very well coached, however, and that should help. So should the defense. The Texans nearly made the playoffs last year, led by a defense that ranked first in turnovers forced (34) and second in EPA. That D could be even better in 2015 if LB Jadeveon Clowney is healthy and plays to his potential. Adding rookie CB Kevin Johnson also helps, but it all starts with All-Pro J.J. Watt and Houston's tremendous front seven. -- Mike Sando
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No. 21: New York Giants
Eleven-year vet Eli Manning set a career high in completion percentage (63.1) last season while racking up 4,410 yards. Yet the Giants were only 6-10, an indication of just how much the defense has fallen off, ranking 18th in defensive EPA and last in yards per carry in 2014. The Giants signed LBs J.T. Thomas and Jonathan Casillas, which should help, but the team still lacks the major pass rush required to compete in the East, exacerbated by the absence of DE Jason Pierre-Paul. New RB Shane Vereen, signed away from New England, does at least give the offense yet another dynamic playmaker. "Finally getting Manning weapons and guys with speed is really going to help him going forward," says a personnel director. -- Mike Sando
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No. 22: St. Louis
Nick Foles has shown he can produce at a high level when supported by a topflight offensive line, ample weapons and a cutting-edge scheme. He had those things in Philly for a while, but he struggled when the parts around him diminished. Unfortunately for Foles, the Rams' line is young -- they have six rookie linemen this season, and some will start -- and their weapons are unproven (there are no LeSean McCoys or DeSean Jacksons here, and first-round RB Todd Gurley is still rounding into form). Fortunately for Foles, St. Louis should have one of the best defenses in the league; it returns a dominant defensive front featuring Chris Long, Robert Quinn and Aaron Donald. That gives hope that Foles will get support, but the QB could use a few surer bets on offense. -- Mike Sando
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No. 23: Atlanta
Matt Ryan trails only Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Tom Brady in QBR since entering the league in 2008. While a case can be made that Ryan has not played well enough in big spots, his organization has failed him: Atlanta ranks fifth in QBR and 28th in defensive EPA during the Ryan era. The offensive line has fallen apart. The running game is 28th in yards per carry over the past three seasons. Ryan, one ex-GM says, "does not have a chance. Defensively, they can't get a pass rush going. They're giving up points, they're one-dimensional and people tee off." The numbers say Ryan is good enough to make the Falcons a championship contender if he gets even a baseline level of support. Until that happens, Atlanta will be a bit like the Saints, another team that has wasted upper-level QB performance. -- Mike Sando
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No. 24: San Francisco
The 49ers know they can contend with Colin Kaepernick at quarterback -- if they have a strong ground game and a top-five defense. Kaepernick's completion rate actually improved from 2013, but his interception rate climbed and he took 52 sacks, more than any QB except Blake Bortles (55). "[Jim] Harbaugh allowed him to get exposed a little by trying to have him win, to be the centerpiece of the offense instead of what he does naturally -- running," one personnel director laments. Now with Harbaugh and O-coordinator Greg Roman gone, he's got to rely on new head coach Jim Tomsula and a less proven staff. They'll recommit to the ground game -- with RB Carlos Hyde taking over for the departed Frank Gore -- and hope the young defensive talent (Arik Armstead, Eli Harold, Corey Lemonier) plays well enough to overcome the departures of Justin Smith, Patrick Willis, Aldon Smith and Chris Borland. But that might not be enough. We know the final game of the season will be at Levi's Stadium. It's looking less likely that the Niners will be playing in it. -- Mike Sando
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No. 25: Chicago
There's no absence of strong opinions about Jay Cutler. "I've never seen a guy get paid that much money and see that many people fired around him," one head coach says. "It's incredible; it is never his fault." A happier view: "He does have issues," a talent evaluator says, "but can you win with him? Yes." Here's what the metrics say: Cutler has been an average quarterback for a long time. His 52.6 QBR last season was almost identical to his QBR from 2006 to 2013 (52.7). The Bears posted a 27-13 record with Cutler as their starter from 2010 to '12. How? They ranked first in defensive EPA over that span, offsetting their No. 24 ranking in QBR. Last season? Chicago ranked 29th in defensive EPA. The Bears are only now beginning to reload their personnel, and banking on the 32-year-old Cutler to break from old patterns doesn't offer a high probability for success. -- Mike Sando
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No. 26: New York Jets
Losing your starting quarterback a week into camp might be the single worst way to start a season, but the Jets actually stand to come out ahead. Stepping in while Geno Smith recovers from a broken jaw is Ryan Fitzpatrick, who is better than his 25-41 record as a starter over the past five seasons would indicate. In fact, his QBR in 2014 (56.7) was higher than that of Alex Smith, Andy Dalton and Matthew Stafford. (Geno Smith's QBR ranked 26th, at 44.3.) Fitzpatrick's stat line over the past five seasons lines up almost exactly with those for Dalton, Jay Cutler and Carson Palmer. As with those three, Fitzpatrick has won when he's had a highly ranked defense on his side. The Jets might have that after adding Darrelle Revis, Buster Skrine and Antonio Cromartie to a unit that ranked 25th in EPA and allowed a 31-6 TD-to-INT ratio last season. -- Mike Sando
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No. 27: Cleveland
The Browns, despite claiming only three winning seasons since 1990, are quietly building a decent roster. The O-line, led by perennial Pro Bowler Joe Thomas and supplemented with first-round pick Cameron Erving, will help the rushing attack. And the already respectable defense, ranked ninth in points allowed in 2014 and 10th in defensive EPA, now has DT Danny Shelton to clog the interior. But offensive weapons are lacking, and that's bad news for Josh McCown. "He needs a strong, strong cast around him," one personnel director says. If Johnny Manziel shows maturity, he figures to get another chance. -- Mike Sando
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No. 28: Oakland
Derek Carr entered the NFL in 2014 with one of the worst supporting casts in recent memory. His leading receiver was James Jones, and no RBs on the roster ranked among the league's top 36 rushers. Yet Carr still threw 21 TDs and just 12 INTs. "You get the offensive line and run game going, surround him with some better players, and he makes a big jump," says one personnel director. About that: Welcome, rookie WR Amari Cooper. The Raiders also bolstered their offensive line with free agent center Rodney Hudson and signed DT Dan Williams, who is best against the run. This is still not a playoff team yet. But don't look now -- the Raiders are finally doing things that ... make sense. -- Mike Sando
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No. 29: Tampa Bay
All the talk about Jameis Winston being the most pro-ready quarterback in the draft needs to come true for the Bucs to become relevant again. There's young talent at receiver (Mike Evans) and at tight end (Austin Seferian-Jenkins), but doubts surround the O-line. Is RB Doug Martin capable of taking pressure off a quarterback? Tampa Bay declined to pick up his fifth-year option after two injury-affected seasons, but Martin has looked like a new man during training camp and the preseason. Can the team upgrade a defense that ranked 26th in EPA last season? There's some thought that Tampa Bay will improve significantly on that side of the ball as head coach Lovie Smith gets a second chance to make things right, but without a legitimate outside pass-rusher, the Bucs might need more than one rebuilding year. -- Mike Sando
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No. 30: Tennessee
We heard a lot about off-the-chart intangibles from those scouting Marcus Mariota -- work ethic, leadership, poise. But those qualities can only take a team so far when the surrounding talent is lacking. Starting WRs? That'd be Justin Hunter and Kendall Wright, who combined for just 1,213 receiving yards last season. RB Dexter McCluster is a decent complementary piece, and although his backfield mate Bishop Sankey could emerge (see below), Mariota might threaten to lead the Titans in rushing yards if the team makes full use of his talents. Tennessee did make a needed offseason move by signing LB Brian Orakpo. Best-case scenario? Mariota avoids injury, shows he has a bright future and the Titans emerge with a draft choice high enough to help them keep building. -- Mike Sando
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No. 31: Jacksonville
A sampling of opinion on Blake Bortles: "I'm not feeling it," one coach says. "He looked lost," says another. And now the good news: According to one personnel director, "For the beating he was taking, he was pretty poised about it." Really, the problems in J-ville are so widespread -- 26th in both points and yards allowed in 2014 -- that it's unfair to bury Bortles, even if he did have the fifth-lowest QBR for a rookie (25.2) since 2006, the year the metric made its debut. To help him, the Jags signed TE Julius Thomas and drafted back T.J. Yeldon to join emerging WR Allen Robinson. They also have significantly upgraded their depth on the offensive line. Adding DT Jared Odrick and CB Davon House should help a pass D that collected a league-low 6 INTs last season. But losing DE Dante Fowler to a season-ending knee injury was devastating for the pass rush. -- Mike Sando
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No. 32: Washington
In the three years since Robert Griffin III arrived in Washington, the Redskins' offense has slipped dramatically -- dropping in 2014 to 26th in points scored (down from fourth in 2012). "Griffin's done," says an offensive coach. "The injury (torn ACL, LCL in wild card loss on Jan. 6, 2013) slowed his legs, and his ego will not allow him to grind his way back." That's why the Redskins did not hesitate to name Kirk Cousins their starter for Week 1. To compensate for its QB issues, the team will need an elite defense -- which it doesn't have. Last year the D ranked 31st in EPA and last in QBR allowed at 76.6, the worst mark in the nine-year history of the metric. Yes, the Redskins switched out D-coordinator Jim Haslett for Joe Barry and made moves designed to upgrade the blocking (welcome, Brandon Scherff), but this team had too many flaws to fix in one offseason. -- Mike Sando
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