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No. 16: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Last Season: 7-9
Second place, NFC South
Drew Brees was fifth in QBR last season at 73.3, a figure higher than his composite 69.6 score from 2006 through 2013. So all's well, right? Not exactly. Consensus around the league is that Brees has slipped. "He doesn't throw as well," one offensive coordinator says. "His lower body is not as good. He's been nicked up a little bit." Some noticed a certain level of panic creeping into Brees' game, but that seems understandable given how far the New Orleans defense has fallen. One number to watch is interceptions: Brees had 17 last year, third most in the league, thanks in part to the pressure put on him by a D that ranked 32nd in EPA. With the loss of TE Jimmy Graham, the defense can't afford to languish (draft picks 31 and 44 went to linebackers), and the running game has to improve (pressure's on, Mark Ingram and C.J. Spiller). -- Mike Sando
Everything that could go wrong did for the Saints last year. They lost four games they were leading with less than two minutes remaining. The defense imploded, the offensive line faded down the stretch, quarterback Drew Brees struggled while trying to force things, and discontent broke out in the locker room. Yet they were still 7-9. Now that they've been humbled and spent the offseason determined to fix their mistakes, 10 wins is entirely realistic. Brees remains the best quarterback in the NFC South, he's healthier and he spent months refining his mechanics. The Saints have improved the secondary by adding cornerbacks Brandon Browner and Delvin Breaux. They improved the offensive line by adding Pro Bowl center Max Unger, and left tackle Terron Armstead is healthy again. And defensive linemen Cameron Jordan and Akiem Hicks have impressed this summer after shedding weight.
The flaws that were exposed last year on defense and on the offensive line are still serious concerns. Browner and Unger should help. But the Saints will also require bounce-back performances from guys like guard Jahri Evans and safety Jairus Byrd, who was sidelined because of a knee injury during training camp. The Saints also created new question marks by trading away their top two pass-catchers from last season -- Jimmy Graham and Kenny Stills -- and releasing their top pass-rusher, Junior Galette. They'll be counting on young players like receiver Brandin Cooks and rookie linebackers Stephone Anthony and Hau'oli Kikaha to make a significant impact.
Saints' percentage chance to win each game
Sept. 13 @ Arizona: 44.0
Sept. 20 vs. Tampa Bay: 75.4
Sept. 27 at Carolina: 45.3
Oct. 4 vs. Dallas: 50.4
Oct. 11 at Philadelphia: 38.6
Oct. 15 vs. Atlanta: 60.8
Oct. 25 at Indianapolis: 33.2
Nov. 1 vs. N.Y. Giants: 59.9
Nov. 8 vs. Tennessee: 73.6
Nov. 15 at Washington: 55.8
Nov. 29 at Houston: 46.1
Dec. 6 vs. vs. Carolina: 55.7
Dec. 13 at Tampa Bay: 58.5
Dec. 21 vs. Detroit: 56.6
Dec. 27 vs. Jacksonville: 70.3
Jan. 3 at Atlanta: 45.3
Mike Triplett's game-by-game predictions
The Saints made so many that it's almost impossible to narrow it down. The most drastic change was trading Graham to the Seattle Seahawks in a deal that included Unger. But I'm confident the offense will find a way to remain among the NFL's best. The defense is the much bigger question mark. The Saints demanded a simpler scheme from coordinator Rob Ryan this year and brought in former Oakland Raiders head coach Dennis Allen as a senior assistant to help cut down on all the assignment and alignment errors that plagued them. They'll play a lot more press-man coverage than they did before. They'll go as far as the revamped pass defense will allow.
"Last [summer] we had so much going for us at the time, we were riding in high and we thought high of ourself," Jordan said. "After you have a year like last year, everybody's back to ground zero. Whether you thought you were great or legendary or whatever you want to call yourself, you have to refocus yourself to getting back to the basics and getting back to what we do best."
"Better -- but not good enough." If the Saints stay relatively healthy, I could see a repeat of their 2013 season, when they were good enough to win 11 games and make it two rounds into the playoffs, but not quite good enough to win on the road at Seattle. In the best-case scenario, they could get hot at the right time (see recent Super Bowl champs like the Baltimore Ravens and New York Giants). But the elite years -- 2009 and 2011, when Brees, the interior offensive line and the receiving corps were all in their primes -- have passed.
No. 15 Dolphins | No. 17 Vikings | NFC South | Full List
