2015 preview: All 32 teams
No. 16: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Last Season: 7-9
Second place, NFC South
Drew Brees was fifth in QBR last season at 73.3, a figure higher than his composite 69.6 score from 2006 through 2013. So all's well, right? Not exactly. Consensus around the league is that Brees has slipped. "He doesn't throw as well," one offensive coordinator says. "His lower body is not as good. He's been nicked up a little bit." Some noticed a certain level of panic creeping into Brees' game, but that seems understandable given how far the New Orleans defense has fallen. One number to watch is interceptions: Brees had 17 last year, third most in the league, thanks in part to the pressure put on him by a D that ranked 32nd in EPA. With the loss of TE Jimmy Graham, the defense can't afford to languish (draft picks 31 and 44 went to linebackers), and the running game has to improve (pressure's on, Mark Ingram and C.J. Spiller). -- Mike Sando
Everything that could go wrong did for the Saints last year. They lost four games they were leading with less than two minutes remaining. The defense imploded, the offensive line faded down the stretch, quarterback Drew Brees struggled while trying to force things, and discontent broke out in the locker room. Yet they were still 7-9. Now that they've been humbled and spent the offseason determined to fix their mistakes, 10 wins is entirely realistic. Brees remains the best quarterback in the NFC South, he's healthier and he spent months refining his mechanics. The Saints have improved the secondary by adding cornerbacks Brandon Browner and Delvin Breaux. They improved the offensive line by adding Pro Bowl center Max Unger, and left tackle Terron Armstead is healthy again. And defensive linemen Cameron Jordan and Akiem Hicks have impressed this summer after shedding weight.
The flaws that were exposed last year on defense and on the offensive line are still serious concerns. Browner and Unger should help. But the Saints will also require bounce-back performances from guys like guard Jahri Evans and safety Jairus Byrd, who was sidelined because of a knee injury during training camp. The Saints also created new question marks by trading away their top two pass-catchers from last season -- Jimmy Graham and Kenny Stills -- and releasing their top pass-rusher, Junior Galette. They'll be counting on young players like receiver Brandin Cooks and rookie linebackers Stephone Anthony and Hau'oli Kikaha to make a significant impact.
Saints' percentage chance to win each game
Sept. 13 @ Arizona: 44.0
Sept. 20 vs. Tampa Bay: 75.4
Sept. 27 at Carolina: 45.3
Oct. 4 vs. Dallas: 50.4
Oct. 11 at Philadelphia: 38.6
Oct. 15 vs. Atlanta: 60.8
Oct. 25 at Indianapolis: 33.2
Nov. 1 vs. N.Y. Giants: 59.9
Nov. 8 vs. Tennessee: 73.6
Nov. 15 at Washington: 55.8
Nov. 29 at Houston: 46.1
Dec. 6 vs. vs. Carolina: 55.7
Dec. 13 at Tampa Bay: 58.5
Dec. 21 vs. Detroit: 56.6
Dec. 27 vs. Jacksonville: 70.3
Jan. 3 at Atlanta: 45.3
Mike Triplett's game-by-game predictions
The Saints made so many that it's almost impossible to narrow it down. The most drastic change was trading Graham to the Seattle Seahawks in a deal that included Unger. But I'm confident the offense will find a way to remain among the NFL's best. The defense is the much bigger question mark. The Saints demanded a simpler scheme from coordinator Rob Ryan this year and brought in former Oakland Raiders head coach Dennis Allen as a senior assistant to help cut down on all the assignment and alignment errors that plagued them. They'll play a lot more press-man coverage than they did before. They'll go as far as the revamped pass defense will allow.
"Last [summer] we had so much going for us at the time, we were riding in high and we thought high of ourself," Jordan said. "After you have a year like last year, everybody's back to ground zero. Whether you thought you were great or legendary or whatever you want to call yourself, you have to refocus yourself to getting back to the basics and getting back to what we do best."
"Better -- but not good enough." If the Saints stay relatively healthy, I could see a repeat of their 2013 season, when they were good enough to win 11 games and make it two rounds into the playoffs, but not quite good enough to win on the road at Seattle. In the best-case scenario, they could get hot at the right time (see recent Super Bowl champs like the Baltimore Ravens and New York Giants). But the elite years -- 2009 and 2011, when Brees, the interior offensive line and the receiving corps were all in their primes -- have passed.
No. 19: CAROLINA PANTHERS
Last Season: 7-8-1
First place, NFC South; lost to Seahawks 31-17 in divisional round
Cam Newton has been compared to Ben Roethlisberger from a physical standpoint, but he's lacking the same accuracy and poise in the pocket. "I don't think he can process the passing game fast enough to throw it to win every week," an offensive coach says. The one winning record Carolina posted with Newton -- 12-4 in 2013 -- coincided with its defense ranking third in EPA. Every other year with Newton, the D ranked between 19th and 31st. Carolina won six or seven games in each of those seasons. The Panthers need to improve their offensive supporting cast to shield Newton from some of the pounding he has taken (no more QB power runs, please). Newton has the physical ability to carry a team, but until he plays to that level consistently, it's tough to bet on his carrying the Panthers to a championship. -- Mike Sando
The Panthers will make the playoffs for the same reason they have the past two seasons: defense. Specifically, their defense remains well ahead of those in Atlanta, New Orleans and Tampa Bay. Led by middle linebacker Luke Kuechly, a unit that ranked in the top 10 the past three seasons has a chance to be in the top five with the addition of outside linebacker Shaq Thompson and cornerback Charles Tillman. The defense will keep games close enough for Cam Newton and the offense to win the NFC South for the third straight year.
As Kuechly told me, when the Panthers play good technique, the defense is very good. When they don't, well, it can be very bad. That was the case at times during the first half of last season, while adjusting to the loss of defensive end Greg Hardy. If the Panthers struggle to stop the run -- and that is possible, considering that defensive tackles Kawann Short (back) and Star Lotulelei (foot) limited in the preseason because of injuries -- things could unravel.
Panthers' percentage chance to win each game
Sept. 13 @ Jacksonville: 61.4
Sept. 20 vs. Houston: 57.6
Sept. 27 vs. New Orleans: 54.4
Oct. 4 @ Tampa Bay: 60.1
Oct. 18 @ Seattle: 31.4
Oct. 25 vs. Philadelphia: 50.6
Nov. 2 vs. Indianapolis: 43.3
Nov. 8 vs. Green Bay: 41.4
Nov. 15 @ Tennessee: 60.2
Nov. 22 vs. Washington: 68.2
Nov. 26 @ Dallas: 34.8
Dec. 6 @ New Orleans: 43.9
Dec. 13 vs. Atlanta: 58.9
Dec. 20 @ N.Y. Giants: 43.9
Dec. 27 @ Atlanta: 45.5
Jan. 3 vs. Tampa Bay: 70.9
David Newton's game-by-game predictions
Most might say left tackle Michael Oher, but I'm going with Thompson, a first-round draft pick. His ability to cover and rush the passer could allow defensive coordinator Sean McDermott to be more creative in his schemes to pressure the quarterback. Thompson also could cover up the lack of a true replacement for Hardy at right defensive end. This easily could be a top-five unit if Thompson lives up to his billing and everybody stays healthy.
"I definitely feel like we have a better team right now than we did the last two years that we won our division." Those words by outside linebacker Thomas Davis echo the thoughts of the organization. There appears to be the same feeling here after a 7-8-1 division-winning season that there was in Seattle after its 7-9 division-winning season in 2011. There is the sense, as there was in Seattle four years ago, that the foundation is set for success. Seattle, of course, went 11-5 in 2012 and won the Super Bowl in 2013.
That they were close to achieving their goals but not good enough because the offense lacked a star receiver without Kelvin Benjamin. That regardless of the record, they have positioned themselves for the future with the salary cap under control, Newton signed to a long-term extension and a strong foundation on defense led by Kuechly.
No. 23: ATLANTA FALCONS
Last Season: 6-10
Third place, NFC South
Matt Ryan trails only Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Tom Brady in QBR since entering the league in 2008. While a case can be made that Ryan has not played well enough in big spots, his organization has failed him: Atlanta ranks fifth in QBR and 28th in defensive EPA during the Ryan era. The offensive line has fallen apart. The running game is 28th in yards per carry over the past three seasons. Ryan, one ex-GM says, "does not have a chance. Defensively, they can't get a pass rush going. They're giving up points, they're one-dimensional and people tee off." The numbers say Ryan is good enough to make the Falcons a championship contender if he gets even a baseline level of support. Until that happens, Atlanta will be a bit like the Saints, another team that has wasted upper-level QB performance. -- Mike Sando
First and foremost, the Falcons play in the NFC South. No team in the division had a winning record last season as the four combined to go 22-41-1. The Saints and Panthers will be challenges, particularly on the road, but they are far from unbeatable. Also, the Falcons have, on paper, the easiest schedule of any team in the league based on last year's record (.410 opponents' winning percentage). Key games against Andrew Luck and the Colts and Adrian Peterson and the Vikings will be at the Georgia Dome, which should give the Falcons an edge even without any piped-in crowd noise. If the Falcons find themselves in a similar position to last year -- right in the thick of the division race -- ending the season with back-to-back home games against the Panthers and Saints is the ideal scenario. And not to be forgotten, the Falcons have a receiver in Julio Jones who could change some outcomes of games by his lonesome.
The defense. Despite positive signs shown in the preseason, it's hard to imagine the Falcons making a complete transformation after surrendering a league-high 398.3 yards per game last season. Yes, they should improve with the addition of talented rookie pass-rusher Vic Beasley. And yes, cornerback Desmond Trufant is on pace to be a Pro Bowl selection. But unproven players such as free safety Ricardo Allen and defensive tackle Ra'Shede Hageman have to show they'll be assets, not liabilities. The entire front needs to consistently pressure opposing quarterbacks, and the linebackers need to help prevent explosive runs. Probably the biggest factor of all is tackling. If the Falcons continue to miss tackles like they have the past few seasons, they'll falter.
Falcons' percentage chance to win each game
Sept. 14 vs. Philadelphia: 49.0
Sept. 20 @ N.Y. Giants: 41.9
Sept. 27 @ Dallas: 32.2
Oct. 4 vs. Houston: 54.8
Oct. 11 vs. Washington: 67.2
Oct. 15 @ New Orleans: 38.9
Oct. 25 @ Tennessee: 60.0
Nov. 1 vs. Tampa Bay: 70.3
Nov. 8 @ San Francisco: 46.0
Nov. 22 vs. Indianapolis: 41.1
Nov. 29 vs. Minnesota: 57.1
Dec. 6 @ Tampa Bay: 56.3
Dec. 13 @ Carolina: 40.7
Dec. 20 @ Jacksonville: 56.7
Dec. 27 vs. Carolina: 54.2
Jan. 3 vs. New Orleans: 54.3
Vaughn McClure's game-by-game predictions
Attitude. Coach Dan Quinn's positive approach has the players believing in themselves, particularly on defense. He continues to preach a fast and physical style that relies on more reaction and less thinking in his 4-3 defense that utilizes some 3-4 personnel tendencies. When the players see Quinn and secondary coach Marquand Manuel get involved with drills, as if they're suiting up themselves, it's impactful. Fast and physical isn't just the defensive mentality, either. The offensive line should buy into the same philosophy while trying to perfect offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan's outside zone blocking scheme and protect Matt Ryan.
Veteran receiver Roddy White once again stated the Falcons should be able to score 30 points per game. But there's a difference in the way he phrased it this year as opposed to last. In 2014, White expected the high-octane offense to score big behind a pass-heavy attack. (The Falcons averaged 23.8 points per game, ranked 12th in the league.) This year, White sees a much improved running game behind Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman putting the Falcons in better position to hit big plays to Jones off play-action. Running the ball will help the Falcons better utilize the clock and also keep Ryan from being exposed to so many big hits. So, we'll see if White is on point this year with his prediction. Only the Packers and Broncos averaged 30 last season.
The talk is likely to focus on how close the Falcons were to making a complete turnaround. There will be remarkable improvement and possibly a playoff berth with an above-.500 record. But it will be hard for the Falcons to contend with the Packers and Seahawks, even if they qualify for the NFC playoffs. There will be talk about how much White has left in the tank at age 34 and about how the Falcons plan to address long-term needs at linebacker and free safety. Of course, if the Falcons miss the playoffs or lose in the first round, there will be the yearly discussion about whether Ryan is an elite quarterback. And the most discussed topic might be the future of general manager Thomas Dimitroff, who was retained but stripped of his powers in favor of Quinn. It will be Quinn's decision whether he wants to continue the partnership. A losing record most likely will result in a mutual parting.
No. 29: TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Last Season: 2-14
Fourth place, NFC South
All the talk about Jameis Winston being the most pro-ready quarterback in the draft needs to come true for the Bucs to become relevant again. There's young talent at receiver (Mike Evans) and at tight end (Austin Seferian-Jenkins), but doubts surround the O-line. Is RB Doug Martin capable of taking pressure off a quarterback? Tampa Bay declined to pick up his fifth-year option after two injury-affected seasons, but Martin has looked like a new man during training camp and the preseason. Can the team upgrade a defense that ranked 26th in EPA last season? There's some thought that Tampa Bay will improve significantly on that side of the ball as head coach Lovie Smith gets a second chance to make things right, but without a legitimate outside pass-rusher, the Bucs might need more than one rebuilding year. -- Mike Sando
Rookie quarterback Jameis Winston, the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, is a rare talent. He has the physical tools and football knowledge necessary to succeed right away. It also helps that he'll be surrounded by receivers Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans, running back Doug Martin and tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins. The running game will be a big part of the offense, so Winston won't have to carry the team. He just has to be efficient and the offense will be productive. The defense has the ingredients, led by defensive tackle Gerald McCoy and linebacker Lavonte David, to be much better than it was a year ago.
The offensive line was terrible last year, giving up 52 sacks. It also didn't block well for the running game. At the moment, it's tough to see how this line improved in the offseason. Injured right tackle Demar Dotson will miss half the season. Rookie Donovan Smith will start at left tackle and rookie Ali Marpet will start at right guard. There are bound to be some growing pains, and that's not good when you're starting a rookie quarterback.
Buccaneers' percentage chance to win each game
Sept. 13 vs. Tennessee: 57.9
Sept. 20 @ New Orleans: 24.4
Sept. 27 @ Houston: 26.8
Oct. 4 vs. vs. Carolina: 39.5
Oct. 11 vs. Jacksonville: 57.5
Oct. 25 @ Washington: 42.1
Nov. 1 @ Atlanta: 29.5
Nov. 8 vs. N.Y. Giants: 41.8
Nov. 15 vs. Dallas: 32.8
Nov. 22 @ Philadelphia: 21.7
Nov. 29 @ Indianapolis: 17.9
Dec. 6 vs. vs. Atlanta: 43.4
Dec. 13 vs. New Orleans: 41.2
Dec. 20 @ St. Louis: 30.7
Dec. 27 vs. Chicago: 52.0
Jan. 3 @ Carolina: 28.8
Pat Yasinskas' game-by-game predictions
Other than drafting a new quarterback? The offense was a mess last year after coordinator Jeff Tedford left the team because of an illness. Quarterbacks coach Marcus Arroyo was in over his head as a play-caller. But things should run a lot more smoothly with the arrival of new coordinator Dirk Koetter. He's a proven commodity and he has plenty of talent to work with at the skill positions. Koetter likes to frequently use a no-huddle offense and the Bucs should benefit when they go up-tempo.
Buccaneers co-chairman Bryan Glazer said it best when he declared this will be a "growing" season. The Bucs don't think they're rebuilding. They believe they have the parts in place to contend for a playoff spot. That would be a huge turnaround from last year's 2-14 record. But the Bucs do look much better on paper. If Winston is as good as advertised and the defense can make a strong improvement, this team could have a winning season.
The Bucs won't make the playoffs, but they will grow significantly. They'll finish somewhere around 8-8 and be competitive. Winston will have a solid rookie season and eventually be the franchise quarterback this team never has had. That will be enough to raise hopes that the team can make the playoffs in the 2016 season.