Drew Brees has looked solid. The defense has looked shaky. The receiving corps has shown promise but lacks experience beyond starters Brandin Cooks and Marques Colston. In other words, the New Orleans Saints have looked pretty much exactly as expected during the preseason -- for better and for worse.
The biggest reason for concern is lingering injuries to key players like Keenan Lewis, Jairus Byrd, Brandon Browner and C.J. Spiller. But for the most part, I feel the same way about the Saints that I did in the spring. So I’m not changing my prediction from April of a 10-6 record and a good chance to win the NFC South -- especially since New Orleans has the NFL’s second-easiest home schedule based on 2014 win percentage.
Here are my updated game-by-game predictions:
Week 1: Sunday, Sept. 13, at Arizona, 4:05 p.m. ET
I changed this pick from a win to a loss. It just feels like one of those matchups against an unfamiliar opponent with a good defense halfway across the country that the Saints often struggle with. Arizona QB Carson Palmer is back healthy from his torn ACL. And it feels like a season in which nothing will come easy for the Saints. Cardinals 23, Saints 20. Record 0-1.
Week 2: Sunday, Sept. 20, Tampa Bay, 1 p.m. ET
No change here. This will be rookie QB Jameis Winston’s first NFL road start. And though the Saints have questions with their edge rusher depth, I like the way veteran Cameron Jordan and Akiem Hicks look up front. They should be able to make Winston uncomfortable, with an assist from the Superdome crowd noise. Saints 30, Buccaneers 17. Record 1-1.
Week 3: Sunday, Sept. 27, at Carolina, 1 p.m. ET
I switched this to a win. The Panthers have had a tough offseason with the loss of top receiver Kelvin Benjamin. I still expect QB Cam Newton and running back Jonathan Stewart to cause problems for New Orleans’ run defense, but I like the Saints’ offense better. And they’ve proven they can go into Carolina and win on the road. Saints 26, Panthers 23. Record 2-1.
Week 4: Sunday, Oct. 4, Dallas, 8:30 p.m. ET
As I said in April, the Saints are usually awesome in prime time games in the Dome, and I imagine they’ll find a way to get their home “mojo” back this year. But the Cowboys have become an awfully tough matchup with that dominant offensive line -- even after they decided not to re-sign running back DeMarco Murray in free agency. I’ll be very curious to see how the Saints’ revamped secondary holds up against Dez Bryant. Cowboys 30, Saints 23. Record 2-2.
Week 5: Sunday, Oct. 11, at Philadelphia, 1 p.m. ET
This game is hard to predict since the Saints and Eagles produced two of the NFL’s biggest roster makeovers this offseason. The one thing I’m confident we’ll see is plenty of creative offense, courtesy of coaches Sean Payton and Chip Kelly. The Saints will have to face former RB Darren Sproles and former safety Malcolm Jenkins, both of whom have played well in Philly after being discarded by New Orleans. Eagles 34, Saints 31. Record 2-3.
Week 6: Thursday, Oct. 15, Atlanta, 8:25 p.m. ET
I’ll repeat my April prediction exactly: After three straight years of Thursday games on the road, the Saints get one at home – and they take advantage. If new Falcons coach Dan Quinn can get their defense turned around, I think they could prove to be New Orleans’ toughest rival for the NFC South this year with dynamic receiver Julio Jones in peak form. Saints 31, Falcons 24. Record 3-3.
Week 7: Sunday, Oct. 25, at Indianapolis, 1 p.m. ET
I’m changing this pick from a win to a loss. I still believe in my original theory that the Saints will win at least one game they shouldn’t and lose one game they should win. But this is a tough matchup on the road against an offense that might be even better than New Orleans’ as QB Andrew Luck continues to grow. I think Brees and Cooks will hold up their end of the shootout, though. Colts 34, Saints 31. Record 3-4.
Week 8: Sunday, Nov. 1, NY Giants, 1 p.m. ET
The Giants have a potent offense as well, but not quite at the Colts’ level -- and this game will be home in the Superdome. As I said in April, New Orleans/Louisiana natives Eli Manning, Odell Beckham Jr. and Rueben Randle will test New Orleans’ secondary, but they’ll come up short. Saints 33, Giants 24. Record 4-4.
Week 9: Sunday, Nov. 8, Tennessee, 1 p.m. ET
The Saints should be hosting yet another rookie QB this week, with Marcus Mariota running the show in Tennessee. And they should take advantage, just like in Week 2 against Tampa Bay. This is a “must-win” type of game for New Orleans against a team trying to bounce back from a 2-14 season. Saints 27, Titans 16. Record 5-4.
Week 10: Sunday, Nov. 15, at Washington, 1 p.m. ET
Another change from my original prediction, where I said this feels like a ripe time for one of those duds on the road against an unfamiliar foe with the bye week looming. I still feel that way – but the Redskins are having a rough offseason, especially at the all-important QB position, and could be in for a rough year. Saints 20, Redskins 17. Record 6-4.
Week 11: BYE
Week 12: Sunday, Nov. 29, at Houston, 1 p.m. ET
The Saints have traditionally played great coming out of the bye week under Payton. But they’ll have trouble on the road against a playoff-caliber team with a fantastic defensive front led by J.J. Watt. Brian Hoyer isn’t all that inspiring, but he had success locking in on stud receiver DeAndre Hopkins in their recent preseason game at New Orleans. Texans 27, Saints 20. Record 6-5.
Week 13: Sunday, Dec. 6, Carolina, 1 p.m. ET
Again, no change from my April write-up: I still can’t explain what happened to the Saints last year when they lost their final five games in the Superdome, including the 31-point drubbing by the Panthers late in the season. But I expect a return to normalcy this year and a much different result. For the third straight year, a December matchup with Carolina could help decide the NFC South title. Saints 27, Panthers 20. Record 7-5.
Week 14: Sunday, Dec. 13, at Tampa Bay, 1 p.m. ET
Road trips to Tampa are always a wild card for the Saints, especially if a monsoon sweeps into town. And the Buccaneers aren’t as bad as their record indicated last year, with some great players like DT Gerald McCoy, LB Lavonte David and WRs Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson. But I’ll stick with my prediction that the Saints can win on the road against a team that should still be experiencing some growing pains with new QB Winston. Saints 24, Buccaneers 16. Record 8-5.
Week 15: Monday, Dec. 21, Detroit, 8:30 p.m. ET
The Saints will look to avenge their most gut-wrenching loss from 2014, when they blew a 13-point lead at Detroit with less than four minutes remaining. This time, the Lions should have a healthy Calvin Johnson on their side, but the Saints are hoping new physical cornerbacks Browner and Delvin Breaux can help them counter guys like him. Saints 28, Lions 21. Record 9-5.
Week 16: Sunday, Dec. 27, Jacksonville, 1 p.m. ET
This is another “must-win” game at home against a team that went 3-13 in 2014. I like some of the Jaguars’ young pieces, including quarterback Blake Bortles and receiver Allen Robinson. But they took a big hit this offseason when they lost the third pick in the draft, DE Dante Fowler Jr., to a torn ACL. Saints 34, Jaguars 17. Record 10-5.
Week 17: Sunday, Jan. 3, at Atlanta, 1 p.m. ET
I’m predicting that the Saints’ four-game win streak ends here. What I don’t know is if they’ll be resting their starters with the NFC South title safely secured -- or if Atlanta will be breathing down their necks. Either way, I expect the Falcons to give the Saints all they can handle with a revamped defense to go with a potent offense. Although Carolina has won the division the past two years, I think these are the two NFC South teams with the highest ceilings – if they can just figure out how to field decent defenses. Falcons 27, Saints 24. Record 10-6.