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No. 15: MIAMI DOLPHINS
Last Season: 8-8
Third place, AFC East
Give Ryan Tannehill credit even though he's struggled on the deep ball and hasn't won the big game yet. Despite constant O-line shuffling, he recorded career highs in 2014 in completion percentage (66.4), yards (4,045), TDs (27) and QBR (59.1). The rise should continue under new O-coordinator Bill Lazor's Chip Kelly-style offense. The faster pace can help maximize new weapons such as WR Greg Jennings and WR Kenny Stills (72 percent catch rate). DT Ndamukong Suh will have to upgrade a defense that led the NFL in EPA through 10 games, only to rank last over its final six. Some in the league would rather stock their D-line rotation with three or four pieces earning $4 million a year than one piece earning what Suh will earn. That makes the Dolphins an interesting test case on defense. -- Mike Sando
This is the most talented team the Dolphins have had in years, led by the major addition of Pro Bowl defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh. Miami spent $114 million to sign Suh, who immediately fixes the team's 24th-ranked run defense from a year ago. Suh also brings a mean streak and new identity to the defense. Offensively, quarterback Ryan Tannehill had the best training camp and preseason of his four-year career and looks poised to have a strong season. Miami has plenty of talent on both sides of the football.
The two biggest concerns are the offensive line and overall depth. Miami's top guards -- Dallas Thomas, Billy Turner and Jamil Douglas -- were inconsistent in training camp and the preseason, which could lead to another year of pass-protection issues. Tannehill is the NFL's most-sacked (139) quarterback since 2012, and the problem might continue in Year 4 if Miami can't figure out its interior offensive line. The Dolphins also lack depth behind the starters at several positions, which was apparent in the preseason. A few key injuries would be big trouble.
Dolphins' percentage chance to win each game
Sept. 13 @ Washington: 58.2
Sept. 20 @ Jacksonville: 63.2
Sept. 27 vs. Buffalo: 59.6
Oct. 4 vs. N.Y. Jets (in London): 57.8
Oct. 18 @ Tennessee: 66.4
Oct. 25 vs. Houston: 59.5
Oct. 29 @ New England: 31.4
Nov. 8 @ Buffalo: 42.8
Nov. 15 @ Philadelphia: 38.7
Nov. 22 vs. Dallas: 52.1
Nov. 29 @ N.Y. Jets: 50.7
Dec. 6 vs. Baltimore: 55.1
Dec. 14 vs. N.Y. Giants: 61.7
Dec. 20 @ San Diego: 47.9
Dec. 27 vs. Indianapolis: 48.0
Jan. 3 vs. New England: 46.9
James Walker's game-by-game predictions
The Dolphins made a major overhaul at wide receiver and tight end. Four of the top five pass-catchers from 2014 are gone, replaced by tight end Jordan Cameron and receivers Kenny Stills, Greg Jennings and first-round pick DeVante Parker. Miami believes these targets are a better fit for Tannehill because they are able to make the tough catches, especially in the red zone where the offense struggled in 2014. Holdovers Jarvis Landry and Rishard Matthews also had strong training camps.
The Dolphins believe the sky is the limit. Head coach Joe Philbin, who is 23-25 in three seasons, knows this is an important year for himself and many within the organization. Unlike previous years, Philbin hasn't been afraid to publicly say the Dolphins are aiming to get to the playoffs and win a championship. "I didn't come here to be average and be 8-8," Philbin recently told ESPN.com. "Steve Ross doesn't own the team to be average. Our fans don't want to be average. Our players don't want to be average. So that's what we're here for. That's why we invest and put the effort, the time into what we do."
This is as optimistic as I've been about the Dolphins during Philbin's tenure. The talent upgrade is one reason. But there also is a different energy and confidence about this group. There is pressure to win this year and, barring major injuries, I expect the Dolphins to earn an AFC wild-card berth. They might even push the New England Patriots for a division title. Either scenario would cap a successful year for Miami and provide something to build on in 2016.
No. 14 Chiefs | No. 16 Saints | AFC East | Full List
