No. 4 Colts | No. 6 Cowboys | AFC West | Full List
No. 5: DENVER BRONCOS
Last Season: 12-4
First place, AFC West; lost 24-13 to Colts in divisional round
The Broncos have the NFL's best record (38-10) since Peyton Manning's arrival in 2012. But last year, Manning finally began to show his age. Over the first eight games, he had an 85.0 QBR and a 24-5 TD-to-INT ratio. The final eight: 61.2 and 15-10. "It's arm strength, mobility, everything," says one defensive coordinator. In new coach Gary Kubiak's run-heavy offense, the Broncos will shift some of the burden to RB C.J. Anderson, who averaged 4.7 ypc last year. But even a throwback ground game can't turn back the clock on Manning's right arm. Finding the right run-pass balance on offense is a start, especially for a team with a defense that ranked sixth in EPA last season. The Broncos' winning formula is changing. -- Mike Sando
The Broncos have Pro Bowl players up and down the roster, including five returning on defense. They're built to be aggressive on defense with plenty of team speed, proven edge rushers in Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware, and cover corners like Chris Harris Jr. and Aqib Talib. At 39, quarterback Peyton Manning changed some of his offseason work, returned lean and has shown plenty of arm strength. The Broncos have also instituted a schedule to give him rest days to keep him fresh for the postseason. He'll operate in a proven system in the run game and throw to two 100-catch receivers in 2014 in Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders.
It would take a historic run of injuries to keep this team out of at least a wild-card spot. The defense and run game are good enough to overcome any potential extended absence of Manning, if he were injured. But other than the season he missed -- 2011 -- following his fourth neck surgery, Manning has not missed a game in 16 previous seasons.
Broncos' percentage chance to win each game
Sept. 13 vs. Baltimore: 65.8
Sept. 17 @ Kansas City: 52.9
Sept. 27 @ Detroit: 57.4
Oct. 4 vs. Minnesota: 71.7
Oct. 11 @ Oakland: 72.2
Oct. 18 @ Cleveland: 65.9
Nov. 1 vs. Green Bay: 54.0
Nov. 8 @ Indianapolis: 42.0
Nov. 15 vs. Kansas City: 62.0
Nov. 22 @ Chicago: 63.2
Nov. 29 vs. New England: 55.6
Dec. 6 @ San Diego: 57.3
Dec. 13 vs. Oakland: 81.9
Dec. 20 @ Pittsburgh: 51.0
Dec. 28 vs. Cincinnati: 65.3
Jan. 3 vs. San Diego: 68.7
Jeff Legwold's game-by-game predictions
After three consecutive crushing playoff losses, including a lackluster, emotionless showing against the Indianapolis Colts this past January, John Fox and the Broncos parted ways. Fox won four consecutive AFC West titles, but executive vice president of football operations/general manager John Elway said he didn't see a team that was "kicking and screaming" in the postseason. Elway's former teammate, former offensive coordinator and longtime friend Gary Kubiak was hired not only to continue to win regular-season games -- the Broncos have won 13, 13 and 12 games in the past three seasons -- but to get an accomplished team to play its best football in the postseason.
The Broncos took huge free-agency plunges in 2012 with Manning, then again in 2014 to sign Ware, Talib, Sanders and T.J. Ward. They have won four consecutive division titles and played in one Super Bowl over the past four seasons. They're saying now what they've said all along: "Around here, it's always Super Bowl or bust, that's the mindset here. You don't have to be here long before you know that. We know it's up to us to see it through and even if we won a Super Bowl the next year would be Super Bowl or bust," Sanders said.
If this team isn't in the Super Bowl conversation throughout the season and is not at least playing for the AFC's slot in the big game, the words "disappointment" and "fell short" will be in every sentence of every season review. As Kubiak said: "I came in knowing what the expectations are here because they have always been the expectations with Pat Bowlen as this team's owner. We signed up for it, we believe it and we want it."
No. 4 Colts | No. 6 Cowboys | AFC West | Full List
