No. 24 49ers | No. 26 Jets | NFC North | Full List
No. 25: CHICAGO BEARS
Last Season: 5-11
Fourth place, NFC North
There's no absence of strong opinions about Jay Cutler. "I've never seen a guy get paid that much money and see that many people fired around him," one head coach says. "It's incredible; it is never his fault." A happier view: "He does have issues," a talent evaluator says, "but can you win with him? Yes." Here's what the metrics say: Cutler has been an average quarterback for a long time. His 52.6 QBR last season was almost identical to his QBR from 2006 to 2013 (52.7). The Bears posted a 27-13 record with Cutler as their starter from 2010 to '12. How? They ranked first in defensive EPA over that span, offsetting their No. 24 ranking in QBR. Last season? Chicago ranked 29th in defensive EPA. The Bears are only now beginning to reload their personnel, and banking on the 32-year-old Cutler to break from old patterns doesn't offer a high probability for success. -- Mike Sando
For the Bears to even be in the playoff conversation, Jay Cutler must have a Pro Bowl-caliber season. At 32 years old, the odds Cutler finally reaches his full potential seem slim, but Cutler and offensive coordinator Adam Gase have enjoyed a productive preseason. Even if Cutler plays out of his mind, the Bears need Green Bay, Minnesota and Detroit to suffer a massive amount of injuries. The defense has to be able to hold opponents to under 30 points per week.
Aaron Rodgers. Another reason ... Aaron Rodgers. Until the Bears prove they can beat the king of the NFC North, the postseason is a pipe dream. The Bears' new 3-4 defense is vulnerable this year. They just don't have the personnel on the defensive side of the ball to be a top-15 unit. The Bears have also been hit hard by preseason injuries. First-round pick Kevin White might not play this season. And last I checked, Cutler is still the Bears quarterback.
Bears' percentage chance to win each game
Sept. 13 vs. Green Bay: 33.2
Sept. 20 vs. Arizona: 47.7
Sept. 27 @ Seattle: 22.1
Oct. 4 vs. Oakland: 67.5
Oct. 11 @ Kansas City: 32.6
Oct. 18 @ Detroit: 35.8
Nov. 1 vs. Minnesota: 54.9
Nov. 9 @ San Diego: 36.4
Nov. 15 @ St. Louis: 37.3
Nov. 22 vs. Denver: 36.5
Nov. 26 @ Green Bay: 22.6
Dec. 6 vs. San Francisco: 56.8
Dec. 13 vs. Washington: 60.0
Dec. 20 @ Minnesota: 35.1
Dec. 27 @ Tampa Bay: 47.6
Jan. 3 vs. Detroit: 47.3
Jeff Dickerson's game-by-game predictions
Firing Marc Trestman and hiring new head coach John Fox. The players seem to genuinely embrace Fox's methods. Maybe just as important; Fox has mastered the art of surrounding himself with top-flight assistant coaches. Coordinators Vic Fangio and Gase should help immediately, especially during in-game situations. Words cannot describe the level of dysfunction at Halas Hall last year. Fox is far from a miracle worker, but at least he cleaned up some of the mess.
The Bears sound cautiously optimistic about their chances in 2015, but nobody is secure enough to make any public predictions. Not even Fox, who is a supremely confident individual who always believes he's right. This is probably because Fox is a successful NFL head coach, outside of winning a Super Bowl. Fox is no stranger to inheriting bad teams. Fox turned it around quickly in Carolina and Denver, so he probably sees no reason why the Bears can't win in Year 1.
The Bears will probably miss the postseason for the eighth time in nine years, and if that happens, the organization will likely focus on fixing the quarterback position. The Bears failed to find a trade partner for Cutler before the 2015 NFL draft, but next offseason could be a different story. Cutler is already guaranteed $10 million in 2016, but a projected $16 million base salary next season is kind of reasonable for a starting quarterback. The Bears will also need to keep retooling their defense. But at least the team won't need to fire a head coach or general manager in February. That's progress, right?
No. 24 49ers | No. 26 Jets | NFC North | Full List
