NFC North preview: Packers have the pieces to win it all

"I think when you set goals, you put it right out there," McCarthy said. "We're about winning the world championship here. That's never changed. Never will. Don't need to sit here and be part of predictions and all that other nonsense. We understand the opportunity that we're given here and everything we do applies to pushing us towards that goal. Last year really doesn't count for anything. The people that were here last year will have lessons from last year that we'll carry further."

That they overcame the loss of Nelson to win the Super Bowl much like they did in 2010, when they ran through the postseason despite having 15 players on injured reserve. To be sure, they didn't have anyone of Nelson's quality on IR that season, but the blueprint is there to overcome injuries and win a championship.

No. 12: DETROIT LIONS

Last Season: 11-5
Second place, NFC North; lost 24-20 to Cowboys in wild-card round

The Lions have reached the playoffs twice since drafting Matthew Stafford first overall in 2009. Not surprisingly, those were the two seasons the Detroit defense was significantly better than average in EPA (the team has had a losing record every other year with the QB.) Stafford has led the NFL in dropbacks over the past three seasons with 43.7 per game, but this could be a case of diminishing returns -- even with Calvin Johnson at 100 percent -- as the signal-caller has not proved he can carry such a load consistently. The issue now becomes whether the Lions will ask for even more from Stafford -- more than he can reasonably handle -- after losing DT Ndamukong Suh in free agency. They think an improved running game will help Stafford in particular and the team overall. -- Mike Sando

The Lions still have one of the most talent-laden offenses in the NFL. While that didn't mean much last year because of injuries and a scheme shift, there is a lot more comfort for Matthew Stafford and his pass catchers this year, which should mean greater production. The back seven returns on defense and could be one of the most talented groups in the NFL, led by emerging star linebacker DeAndre Levy and Pro Bowl safety Glover Quin. If the Lions can produce any pass rush, they have a chance to contend for a playoff berth.

The Lions had the best run defense in the NFL last season, anchored by defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh. Suh is now in Miami, and the Lions have struggled against the run at points during the preseason. Plus, Haloti Ngata hasn't practiced at all yet. If the Lions struggle to stop the run, everything else is in question. Calvin Johnson has missed five games over two years, and the offense seems to stall when he is unavailable. If he gets hurt again, there could be some major offensive issues. Plus, the schedule is daunting, including trips to Seattle and New Orleans beyond the traditional NFC North foes.

Lions' percentage chance to win each game
Sept. 13 @ San Diego: 42.6
Sept. 20 @ Minnesota: 46.0
Sept. 27 vs. Denver: 42.3
Oct. 5 @ Seattle: 27.5
Oct. 11 vs. Arizona: 54.2
Oct. 18 vs. Chicago: 63.9
Oct. 25 vs. Minnesota: 59.4
Nov. 1 vs. Kansas City (in London): 46.4
Nov. 15 @ Green Bay: 31.8
Nov. 22 vs. Oakland: 73.7
Nov. 26 vs. Philadelphia: 49.2
Dec. 6 vs. Green Bay: 41.9
Dec. 13 @ St. Louis: 47.3
Dec. 20 @ New Orleans: 43.1
Dec. 27 vs. San Francisco: 64.0
Jan. 3 @ Chicago: 52.3

Michael Rothstein's game-by-game predictions

The biggest change is the loss of Suh. Detroit's entire defense revolved around opponents making a game plan for how to stop Suh. Without that, offenses can scheme much differently and don't have to commit as much protection in passing situations. The Lions plan to counter this with more blitzes in 2015, but that could hurt the defense in other areas if the blitzes don't reach the quarterback.

Lions coach Jim Caldwell was blunt at his season-opening news conference when he said, "We expect to be [a playoff team]." That confidence has not wavered from him or the Lions yet. They have been a loose, fairly comfortable bunch of players throughout training camp, and they steadfastly believe they have the pieces to be a contender in the division and the NFC this season. Caldwell has made it clear the Lions have to be "better than we were last year. Period." Detroit went 11-5 last season, made the playoffs and tied the second-best record in franchise history.

The Lions will have rallied from a rough start to the season but will lament the 1-4 start that put them in a must-win situation for the final three months of the year. There are a lot of toss-up games in there - and Detroit will have rallied well to a 9-7 finish and remained in playoff contention until the last game of the year. But the team will miss the playoffs.

No. 17: MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Last Season: 7-9
Third place, NFC North

Teddy Bridgewater finished his rookie season with a flourish (seventh in QBR in Weeks 13-17), but the feeling around the league is that he has the physical skills to deveop into only a slightly better-than-average starter. "I question his accuracy," one personnel director says. That's not saying a team can't win with Bridgewater, only that a strong ground game and defense will be part of the equation. The Vikings could be in luck if RB Adrian Peterson returns to form and Mike Zimmer's defense can make a big jump after ranking 19th in EPA his first season as head coach. Xavier Rhodes also made a nice jump at corner last season -- Richard Sherman singled him out as a youngster on the rise -- but Minnesota is a ways from catching Green Bay in the NFC North. -- Mike Sando

Adrian Peterson is back, Mike Wallace arrived in a trade and the offense should have more juice than it did a year ago. The defense made a major improvement in Mike Zimmer's first season, and the Vikings added to their secondary depth with Terence Newman and Trae Waynes. And second-year quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has a chance to build on an impressive finish to his rookie season, when he was one of the league's best QBs in December.

The offensive line will have two new starters on the right side, and if left tackle Matt Kalil struggles again, the Vikings' hopes for a better offense could crumble behind poor protection. The team's run defense was 23rd in the league last season, and the Vikings will have a new starter at middle linebacker. And for all of his promise, Bridgewater still hasn't beaten a team with a winning record.

Vikings' percentage chance to win each game
Sept. 14 @ San Francisco: 43.9
Sept. 20 vs. Detroit: 53.6
Sept. 27 vs. San Diego: 55.5
Oct. 4 @ Denver: 28.1
Oct. 18 vs. Kansas City: 54.1
Oct. 25 @ Detroit: 40.3
Nov. 1 @ Chicago: 44.7
Nov. 8 vs. St. Louis: 57.0
Nov. 15 @ Oakland: 57.3
Nov. 22 vs. Green Bay: 39.2
Nov. 29 @ Atlanta: 42.6
Dec. 6 vs. Seattle: 39.9
Dec. 10 @ Arizona: 37.3
Dec. 20 vs. Chicago: 64.7
Dec. 27 vs. N.Y. Giants: 55.8
Jan. 3 @ Green Bay: 28.3

Ben Goessling's game-by-game predictions

Peterson's return, after playing just one game last year, gives the Vikings the kind of singular offensive talent that defenses have to account for at all times. He's 30 now, but says he's in better shape than ever and seems motivated for a big season after last year's suspension. Even if he's not an MVP-caliber back this year, his presence alone should make life easier for Bridgewater.

The Vikings have become a trendy playoff pick, and while players and coaches aren't assuming anything, there's an air of self-assuredness around the Vikings that stems from coach Mike Zimmer and Bridgewater. "I have high expectations," Zimmer said. "I know, overall, people are saying nice things, but our expectations are higher than anybody else's, and that's how it should be. I don't want my football team to have low expectations."

They'll take some satisfaction in their first trip to the playoffs since 2012 and look forward to opening a new stadium with plenty of momentum. A tough schedule awaits this year, Bridgewater is only 22 and there's uncertainty surrounding the two biggest playmakers on offense (Peterson and Wallace). But with a talented, young defense, the Vikings can be a wild-card team if Bridgewater is good enough to get them there.

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No. 25: CHICAGO BEARS

Last Season: 5-11
Fourth place, NFC North

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There's no absence of strong opinions about Jay Cutler. "I've never seen a guy get paid that much money and see that many people fired around him," one head coach says. "It's incredible; it is never his fault." A happier view: "He does have issues," a talent evaluator says, "but can you win with him? Yes." Here's what the metrics say: Cutler has been an average quarterback for a long time. His 52.6 QBR last season was almost identical to his QBR from 2006 to 2013 (52.7). The Bears posted a 27-13 record with Cutler as their starter from 2010 to '12. How? They ranked first in defensive EPA over that span, offsetting their No. 24 ranking in QBR. Last season? Chicago ranked 29th in defensive EPA. The Bears are only now beginning to reload their personnel, and banking on the 32-year-old Cutler to break from old patterns doesn't offer a high probability for success. -- Mike Sando

For the Bears to even be in the playoff conversation, Jay Cutler must have a Pro Bowl-caliber season. At 32 years old, the odds Cutler finally reaches his full potential seem slim, but Cutler and offensive coordinator Adam Gase have enjoyed a productive preseason. Even if Cutler plays out of his mind, the Bears need Green Bay, Minnesota and Detroit to suffer a massive amount of injuries. The defense has to be able to hold opponents to under 30 points per week.

Aaron Rodgers. Another reason ... Aaron Rodgers. Until the Bears prove they can beat the king of the NFC North, the postseason is a pipe dream. The Bears' new 3-4 defense is vulnerable this year. They just don't have the personnel on the defensive side of the ball to be a top-15 unit. The Bears have also been hit hard by preseason injuries. First-round pick Kevin White might not play this season. And last I checked, Cutler is still the Bears quarterback.

Bears' percentage chance to win each game
Sept. 13 vs. Green Bay: 33.2
Sept. 20 vs. Arizona: 47.7
Sept. 27 @ Seattle: 22.1
Oct. 4 vs. Oakland: 67.5
Oct. 11 @ Kansas City: 32.6
Oct. 18 @ Detroit: 35.8
Nov. 1 vs. Minnesota: 54.9
Nov. 9 @ San Diego: 36.4
Nov. 15 @ St. Louis: 37.3
Nov. 22 vs. Denver: 36.5
Nov. 26 @ Green Bay: 22.6
Dec. 6 vs. San Francisco: 56.8
Dec. 13 vs. Washington: 60.0
Dec. 20 @ Minnesota: 35.1
Dec. 27 @ Tampa Bay: 47.6
Jan. 3 vs. Detroit: 47.3

Jeff Dickerson's game-by-game predictions

Firing Marc Trestman and hiring new head coach John Fox. The players seem to genuinely embrace Fox's methods. Maybe just as important; Fox has mastered the art of surrounding himself with top-flight assistant coaches. Coordinators Vic Fangio and Gase should help immediately, especially during in-game situations. Words cannot describe the level of dysfunction at Halas Hall last year. Fox is far from a miracle worker, but at least he cleaned up some of the mess.

The Bears sound cautiously optimistic about their chances in 2015, but nobody is secure enough to make any public predictions. Not even Fox, who is a supremely confident individual who always believes he's right. This is probably because Fox is a successful NFL head coach, outside of winning a Super Bowl. Fox is no stranger to inheriting bad teams. Fox turned it around quickly in Carolina and Denver, so he probably sees no reason why the Bears can't win in Year 1.

The Bears will probably miss the postseason for the eighth time in nine years, and if that happens, the organization will likely focus on fixing the quarterback position. The Bears failed to find a trade partner for Cutler before the 2015 NFL draft, but next offseason could be a different story. Cutler is already guaranteed $10 million in 2016, but a projected $16 million base salary next season is kind of reasonable for a starting quarterback. The Bears will also need to keep retooling their defense. But at least the team won't need to fire a head coach or general manager in February. That's progress, right?