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No. 18: BUFFALO BILLS
Last Season: 9-7
Second place, AFC East
Even without a topflight quarterback, the Bills have a shot at reaching the playoffs. They return an elite defense that ranked No. 1 in EPA in 2014, edging out Houston and Seattle. Buffalo also added RB LeSean McCoy to an offense led by coordinator Greg Roman, who is known for his scheming of the ground game. But the QB issue is a real thing: Ex-Viking Matt Cassel ranked worse last season in QBR than the guy he was supposed to replace, Kyle Orton (which might explain why Tyrod Taylor was named the starter). Until the Bills find a viable answer under center -- Taylor and EJ Manuel look like longer shots -- this is a team with one very fatal flaw. -- Mike Sando
Because Rex Ryan said so. OK, maybe not. But the Bills did assemble their best roster in a decade or longer, stocked with talent at skill positions -- LeSean McCoy, Charles Clay and Percy Harvin have joined Sammy Watkins -- and across a defense that led the NFL in sacks in 2014. Buffalo had the league's most unsettled quarterback situation in training camp, but the first round of the playoffs seems within reach for the Bills, who will try to get there through running the football, playing strong defense and protecting the ball. In fact, it would be a disappointment if the Bills didn't make it to the postseason for the first time since 1999 after spending more than $90 million in guaranteed money this offseason.
General manager Doug Whaley told coaches interviewing for the Bills' head-coaching vacancy in January that the team is in "quarterback purgatory" because they aren't bad enough to draft a top-flight prospect and aren't likely to stumble upon a franchise quarterback otherwise. It could prove to be the Bills' fatal flaw again this season. Matt Cassel, Tyrod Taylor and EJ Manuel -- not exactly an awe-inspiring trio -- spent the entire preseason competing for the starting job. Taylor, who has attempted just 35 passes in four NFL seasons, won that competition.
Bills' percentage chance to win each game
Sept. 13 vs. Indianapolis: 42.5
Sept. 20 vs. New England: 40.4
Sept. 27 @ Miami: 40.1
Oct. 4 vs. N.Y. Giants: 57.0
Oct. 11 @ Tennessee: 57.6
Oct. 18 vs. Cincinnati: 55.0
Oct. 25 vs. Jaguars (in London): 67.8
Nov. 8 vs. Miami: 56.9
Nov. 12 @ N.Y. Jets: 48.8
Nov. 23 @ New England: 31.5
Nov. 29 @ Kansas City: 39.6
Dec. 6 vs. Houston: 57.3
Dec. 13 @ Philadelphia: 36.8
Dec. 20 @ Washington: 56.1
Dec. 27 vs. Dallas: 50.3
Jan. 3 vs. N.Y. Jets: 62.6
Mike Rodak's game-by-game predictions
The easy answer would be the head-coaching change from Doug Marrone to Ryan, but that would neither give Marrone enough credit for a 9-7 record last season, nor would it consider Ryan's dismal past two seasons with the New York Jets. Instead, let's point to a change at running back. Depleted by injuries last season, Buffalo spread the carries around and ranked 26th in yards per carry. Now the Bills have a scheme that should heavily feature McCoy, the NFL's second-most-prolific runner over the past two seasons. If the Bills are to overcome their deficiency at quarterback, it starts with McCoy.
Ryan hasn't shied away from predicting his team would make the postseason. His first proclamations came at his introductory news conference in January and his prognostications continued as the team broke training camp. "Look, we definitely expect to be in the playoffs, period," Ryan said Aug. 25. "We said that since Day 1. We got no qualms about it. We expect to be in there. We know and realize that a lot of things can happen, but we expect to be in. We got a good football team."
"We're moving in the right direction." I don't expect the Bills to make the trip to Santa Clara, California, for Super Bowl 50, but I can easily see Buffalo cracking the six-team AFC playoff field. If that happens, it will be a weight off the shoulders of nearly everyone in the organization, as well as the team's fans. Coaches and players will treat it as a sign of progress, and rightfully so.
No. 17 Vikings | No. 19 Panthers | AFC East | Full List
