2015 preview: All 32 teams
No. 7: PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Last Season: 11-5
First place, AFC North; lost 30-17 to Ravens in wild-card round
Call it an imbalance of power. In 2014, Ben Roethlisberger threw for a league-high 4,952 yards, leading the Steelers' offense to its best season of the Big Ben era. The defense, however, was its worst by far in EPA in the nine-year history of the ESPN metric. The team addressed the dreadful D in the offseason by drafting 6-foot-4, 269-pound LB Bud Dupree in the first round. The Steelers are also banking on the development of their other young defensive players, particularly rookie corner Senquez Golson and 2014 first-round LB Ryan Shazier. Shazier played just nine games during an injury-plagued rookie season, but he possesses all the physical tools needed to develop. -- Mike Sando
The Steelers have what most teams covet: a top-shelf quarterback (Ben Roethlisberger), wide receiver (Antonio Brown) and running back (Le'Veon Bell) playing in their peak years together. That dynamic can lift the Steelers on those sluggish weeks when nothing's going right, especially with Bell determined to rip up the league after serving a two-game suspension. With quality complementary pieces (Martavis Bryant, after serving a suspension, and Markus Wheaton at wide receiver and Heath Miller at tight end) surrounding that trio, the Steelers should squeeze a double-digit-win season out of a brutal schedule. The Steelers have the strongest strength of schedule (.578) based on opponents' 2014 winning percentage, according to ESPN.com's Stats & Information.
The Steelers' leaky pass defense (27th in 2014) has applied too much pressure on this team for a few years now despite the investment of several first-round picks (linebackers Jarvis Jones, Ryan Shazier, Bud Dupree and DE Cameron Heyward) in the front seven, cornerback and safety. Asking the offense to score 30 points every week isn't a healthy strategy. All those playoff-caliber opponents the final six weeks of the schedule will want to expose that.
Steelers' percentage chances to win each game
Sept. 10 @ New England: 32.6
Sept. 20 vs. San Francisco: 68.7
Sept. 27 @ St. Louis: 49.9
Oct. 1 vs. Baltimore: 55.6
Oct. 12 @ San Diego: 49.3
Oct. 18 vs. Arizona: 58.8
Oct. 25 @ Kansas City: 43.5
Nov. 1 vs. Cincinnati: 54.6
Nov. 8 vs. Oakland: 77.0
Nov. 15 vs. Cleveland: 69.2
Nov. 29 @ Seattle: 34.6
Dec. 6 vs. Indianapolis: 47.1
Dec. 13 @ Cincinnati: 43.3
Dec. 20 vs. Denver: 48.6
Dec. 27 @ Baltimore: 40.2
Jan. 3 @ Cleveland: 57.0
Jeremy Fowler's game-by-game predictions
The switch to defensive coordinator Keith Butler has the Steelers experimenting with things not done around here in years: 4-3 fronts, linemen in a stand-up stance, creative blitzes from every position. This could breathe new life into a defense eager to showcase its upgraded speed. Or it could backfire. There will be little middle ground here.
The Steelers aren't hiding from their pedigree. Anything less than a Super Bowl push will be a disappointment. Ben Roethlisberger is feeling it, saying to anyone willing to listen the Steelers are aiming for the top spot in every offensive category. He couldn't say that with conviction when the team forgot to turn off the snooze button during back-to-back 8-8 seasons. But the Steelers know they have something special offensively.
The defense held up well enough to produce a 12-win season, a playoff bye and a divisional-round win over Baltimore. But Tom Brady picked the secondary apart with his short passing game on a cold night in New England to earn another Super Bowl berth. Good season, guys. Not quite good enough.
No. 8: BALTIMORE RAVENS
Last Season: 10-6
Third place, AFC North; lost 35-31 to Patriots in divisional round
How will Joe Flacco (career-high 66.9 QBR) deal with the departure of O-coordinator Gary Kubiak? "Kubiak's offense was perfect for Flacco," says one personnel director. "The strong run game, play-action throws and big windows created space in the pocket for him." Kubiak's pass-run ratio was a balanced 55-45. New O-coordinator Marc Trestman's 2014 ratio in Chicago, inflated by heavy doses of passes to RB Matt Forte: 63-37. HC John Harbaugh knows the Ravens as presently configured are at their best leaning on the ground game. Maintaining that mindset with Trestman calling plays will be important for Baltimore. "I don't see Flacco as a guy who carries a team," says the director. -- Mike Sando
Quarterback Joe Flacco. It's debatable whether he's elite or not. What can't be argued is his ability to win -- and win consistently. Flacco is one of three quarterbacks who have guided their teams to the playoffs in six of the past seven seasons. The others? Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers. That's pretty good company. Flacco, who turned 30 earlier this year, is reaching the prime of his career. He's coming off a season in which he set career highs with 3,986 yards and 27 touchdowns. The Ravens have to rework his deal after the season because his salary-cap number balloons to $28.55 million. The last time Flacco entered a season knowing a new contract loomed was 2012, when he led Baltimore to a Super Bowl title.
The lack of proven targets in the passing game. This is a new-look passing attack after wide receiver Torrey Smith and tight end Owen Daniels signed elsewhere in free agency. They represented 28 percent of Flacco's completions (97 of 344) and 56 percent of his touchdowns (15 of 27). Steve Smith is the only receiver currently on the roster who caught more than 24 passes from Flacco last season. The Ravens drafted Breshad Perriman in the first round, and he's been sidelined since spraining his knee on the first day of training camp. So, to whom is Flacco going to throw the ball in the passing game? Role players such as Kamar Aiken, Marlon Brown and Crockett Gillmore have to step up big time. If you're looking for reason the Ravens won't make the playoffs, remember their brutal schedule. Five of their first seven games are on the road, including four trips out west (Denver, Oakland, San Francisco and Arizona). That's good for frequent-flier miles, not for a team trying to win a Super Bowl.
Ravens' percentage chance to win each game
Sept. 13 @ Denver: 34.9
Sept. 20 @ Oakland: 65.0
Sept. 27 vs. Bengals: 59.9
Oct. 1 @ Pittsburgh: 44.0
Oct. 11 vs. Cleveland: 73.5
Oct. 18 at San Francisco: 53.1
Oct. 26 @ Arizona: 45.1
Nov. 1 vs San Diego: 64.5
Nov. 15 vs. Jacksonville: 79.8
Nov. 22 vs. St. Louis: 65.6
Nov. 30 @ Cleveland: 56.3
Dec. 6 @ Miami: 44.5
Dec. 13 vs. Seattle: 48.9
Dec. 20 vs Kansas City: 59.3
Dec. 27 vs. Pittsburgh: 59.5
Jan. 3 @ Cincinnati: 46.2
Jamison Hensley's game-by-game predictions
Ravens secondary. The Ravens' two biggest signings of free agents from other teams were safety Kendrick Lewis and cornerback Kyle Arrington. Lewis is the best center-fielder the Ravens have had since Ed Reed in 2012. Arrington is perhaps Baltimore's best nickelback under coach John Harbaugh. The addition of their poise and leadership is much needed after last season, when the Ravens gave up the most passing yards in franchise history (4,341 yards). What also should help. Baltimore is the quality of quarterbacks on its schedule. The Ravens play against three quarterbacks who ranked in the top 10 in passing last season (Ben Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers).
Joe Flacco on whether this is undoubtedly a playoff team: "To me, it is. But you just can't say it. You have to go out there and do it. I think we know that better than anyone. We fought hard for seven years and made it six times. I'm not naive. I know how tough it is to get there and how much it takes."
The Ravens are the most balanced team in the AFC North and will capture the division title for the first time since 2012. The second-to-last game in the regular season (home against the Steelers) will decide the winner of the AFC North. The question is whether this Ravens secondary has improved enough to repeatedly beat the top-notch quarterbacks such as Manning, Roethlisberger and Tom Brady. The Ravens make another solid Super Bowl run, but it will end in the AFC Championship Game to Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts.
No. 11: CINCINNATI BENGALS
Last Season: 10-6
Second place, AFC North; lost 26-10 to Colts in wild-card round
The Bengals have made the playoffs in each of Andy Dalton's four seasons -- but clearly require some changes: one, a more run-oriented attack that OC Hue Jackson began implementing last season. Expect the Bengals to lean heavily on RB Jeremy Hill, who rushed for 1,124 yards on just 222 carries in 2014. And two: returning their defense to the snarling, physical style that Marvin Lewis believes is needed to compete in the AFC North. Cincy dropped from second to 15th in defensive EPA last season, so it's betting big on a healthier Vontaze Burfict and newly re-signed DE Michael Johnson to turn around the unit. -- Mike Sando
The Bengals and playoff football have been synonymous the past four seasons, so it makes sense to assume Cincinnati will reach the postseason for a franchise-record fifth straight year. With very little changes being made to the roster this offseason, the Bengals have the type of depth to go on another run into January. But the obvious question remains: Can they finally win once postseason play arrives? They haven't done that since 1991. It depends in large part on how well Andy Dalton plays at the end of the season.
While its roster is loaded in key places, as it has been in recent seasons, Cincinnati still has to go through the division that's arguably the toughest in the NFL. Three teams from the AFC North reached the playoffs last year (Cincinnati, Baltimore and Pittsburgh), but it will be tough to see that happening again, particularly considering all four AFC North teams have schedules that rank among the league's 11-toughest. End-of-year, prime-time games at Denver and San Francisco could certainly hamper the Bengals' repeat chances, especially considering Andy Dalton's problems under the national television lights.
Bengals' percentage chance to win each game
Sept. 13 @ Oakland: 62.2
Sept. 20 vs. San Diego: 60.8
Sept. 27 @ Baltimore: 39.8
Oct. 4 vs. Kansas City: 56.6
Oct. 11 @ Seattle: 45.1
Oct. 18 @ Buffalo: 44.6
Nov. 1 @ Pittsburgh: 45.1
Nov. 5 vs. Cleveland: 69.8
Nov. 16 vs. Houston: 56.9
Nov. 22 @ Arizona: 42.0
Nov. 29 vs. St. Louis: 62.6
Dec. 6 @ Cleveland: 57.5
Dec. 13 vs. Pittsburgh: 56.3
Dec. 20 @ San Francisco: 52.3
Dec. 28 @ Denver: 34.4
Jan. 3 vs. Baltimore: 53.4
Coley Harvey's game-by-game predictions
Again, with few changes having been made to their roster this past offseason, the Bengals enter 2015 with roughly the same team they had last year. Defensive end Michael Johnson and linebacker A.J. Hawk are the biggest additions, with Johnson returning to the team that drafted him after spending one year away. With a mostly set roster, that means the single biggest change rests with the Bengals' health. Compared to the middle of last season, when both starting tight ends, two key receivers, a star running back, one standout offensive tackle and a Pro Bowl linebacker were hurt for multiple weeks, the Bengals begin this season in much better shape. Only the presence of linebacker Vontaze Burfict has been missing in the preseason.
Team president Mike Brown is cautiously optimistic about how the Bengals' season will play out. A realist, Brown relayed his concern over the Bengals' schedule - rated the second-toughest based off last season's team winning percentages -- just before the start of training camp. But he, like others around the team, sees very few weaknesses on the roster. On the heels of a 10-win season that included an avalanche of injuries, the Bengals feel confident that if they can stay healthy this year, playoff albatross might finally come off their backs.
For the first time in a generation, there will be pride in February in Cincinnati. After making it through a challenging regular-season schedule that might be decided in the finale at home against Baltimore, the Bengals will not only make it back to the playoffs, but they will build up a little momentum and win a first-round playoff game for the first time since 1991. If they end up losing that postseason opener or not advancing out of the regular season at all, then the chatter around the Bengals will be the exact same as it's been the past three offseasons. Marvin Lewis' job security will be a hot storyline, and the calls for his position will grow louder than they ever have before.
No. 27: CLEVELAND BROWNS
Last Season: 7-9
Fourth place, AFC North
The Browns, despite claiming only three winning seasons since 1990, are quietly building a decent roster. The O-line, led by perennial Pro Bowler Joe Thomas and supplemented with first-round pick Cameron Erving, will help the rushing attack. And the already respectable defense, ranked ninth in points allowed in 2014 and 10th in defensive EPA, now has DT Danny Shelton to clog the interior. But offensive weapons are lacking, and that's bad news for Josh McCown. "He needs a strong, strong cast around him," one personnel director says. If Johnny Manziel shows maturity, he figures to get another chance. -- Mike Sando
Everything goes as the Browns drew it up in the offseason. The defense figures how to stop the run. The secondary turns into a ballhawking machine. The offense sustains drives, limits mistakes and runs the ball. Josh McCown finds magic and youth in the drinking waters of Lake Erie. The receivers show sure hands and the ability to gain nine when eight is needed. Punter Andy Lee becomes a field-position weapon. If all these things come together in the most perfect of ways, the Browns will play in January.
Everything goes as the pundits predict it will go. Especially on offense, where the Browns are counting on a 36-year-old who went 1-10 as a starter one year ago. While team execs never were able to look beyond the off-field issues that affected Brian Hoyer, they have come up with every excuse in the book for McCown's season in Tampa Bay. This season's results will show if they were right. By the end of camp, McCown was not even the biggest worry on offense. The team's running backs had the most so-so of camps, and the lack of a playmaker remains. Defensively, the Browns have talked big, with players throwing around the possibility of a top-five defense and a top-two secondary. Until they stop the run, though, the talk is empty.
Browns' percentage chance to win each game
Sept. 13 @ N.Y. Jets: 37.8
Sept. 20 vs. Tennessee: 63.4
Sept. 27 vs. Oakland: 64.5
Oct. 4 @ San Diego: 32.9
Oct. 11 @ Baltimore: 26.3
Oct. 18 vs. Denver: 33.9
Oct. 25 @ St. Louis: 31.9
Nov. 1 vs. Arizona: 44.4
Nov. 5 @ Cincinnati: 30.0
Nov. 15 @ Pittsburgh: 30.5
Nov. 30 vs. Baltimore: 43.4
Dec. 6 vs. Cincinnati: 42.2
Dec. 13 vs. San Francisco: 53.8
Dec. 20 @ Seattle: 19.9
Dec. 27 @ Kansas City: 28.8
Jan. 3 vs. Pittsburgh: 42.6
Pat McManamon's game-by-game predictions
The same position that's always the biggest change for the Browns: quarterback. Josh McCown will become the 23rd different name to go on that infamous jersey that lists all the Browns' starting quarterbacks since 1999. The Browns know McCown is not an Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady; they are hoping the team around McCown is strong enough to win. Most feel it is not. If McCown gets hurt, the Browns will go back to Johnny Manziel, who made strides during training camp but whose strides should be measured against the low bar of his rookie season and 10 weeks in rehab following that season. Manziel worked hard to make himself into a pocket passer, but the true results of that work won't be seen if McCown stays healthy. Can McCown succeed? He's never started 16 games in a season, and only once in a 12-year career has he had a winning record -- that was when he went 3-2 two years ago in Chicago. As McCown goes, so go the Browns.
When Mike Pettine coached in Baltimore, the Ravens would win what the coaching staff called "Matt Stover games." The idea was to plod along, manage the game, keep it close and at the end have a chance to win. The Ravens defense was generally so good those teams could depend on their kicker to win. The Browns hope their defense comes through the same way. The team is depending on three key factors to win: the defense playing well, rookie running back Duke Johnson turning into a big-time back and McCown limiting mistakes. It's a tough formula in this NFL era, but that's the one the Browns will follow.
Assuming Jimmy Haslam follows through on his promise not to blow up the coaching staff and front office, expect one major theme: They'll continue to search for a franchise quarterback until we find one. This season has the earmarks of a tough one. The schedule is challenging, the offense has major question marks and the gushing over the defense is misplaced until it actually comes through. Figure the other three teams in the division are all playoff-caliber and the challenge for the Browns is greater. The team has added some good players the past couple seasons. It has needs still at the most important positions on the team. And it will still need to find the guy for the most important position: quarterback. It's scary to ponder, but the 2016 opening day starter at quarterback might not be on the team's roster in 2015.