2015 preview: All 32 teams
No. 1: SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Last Season: 12-4
First place, NFC West; lost 28-24 to Patriots in Super Bowl XLIX
Back in 2011, the year before Russell Wilson arrived, the Seahawks ranked fifth in defensive EPA and had the NFL's seventh-leading rusher in Marshawn Lynch. And they still finished only 7-9. Why? Quarterback play. They ranked 25th in Total QBR. Then came Wilson, who is sixth in QBR over the past three seasons. True, the Seahawks don't ask Wilson to carry them with his arm (he ranks last in pass attempts per start over the past three seasons). But when he does air it out, he makes big plays. Seattle had 54 passes of 20-plus yards last season; add the 83 rushes of 10-plus yards and the Seahawks rang up more explosive plays than any other team. Wilson plus Lynch plus an elite defense makes Seattle a Super Bowl favorite once again. -- Mike Sando
The Seahawks have enough talent to overcome their primary concerns on each side of the ball, which is inexperience along their offensive line and a secondary with new pieces and suspect depth behind the starters. The acquisition of tight end Jimmy Graham gives the Seahawks' offense a weapon it's never had. He should be of particular help in the red zone, an area where Seattle had trouble converting opportunities into touchdowns last season. The defense that has allowed the fewest points in the league in each of the past three seasons is mostly intact from a year ago. And while it's not as strong in the secondary, it's healthier and deeper along the defensive line than it was in 2014.
The Seahawks start with what might be the two toughest games on their schedule -- at St. Louis and at Green Bay -- which means they could find themselves in an early season hole. The opener pits the Rams' biggest strength, their front seven, against the Seahawks' biggest weakness, an offensive line that might have only two starters at the same spots as a year ago. The Rams' defense has given Seattle fits in recent seasons. This game is in St. Louis, where the Rams have beaten the Seahawks two of the past three years. Winning at Lambeau Field is always a challenge, and it would be even tougher if strong safety Kam Chancellor has yet to return from his holdout. If so, the Seahawks would be faced with the difficult task of trying to stop the league's reigning MVP in quarterback Aaron Rodgers without one of their best defensive players.
Seahawks' percentage chance to win each game
Sept. 13 @ Rams: 60.3
Sept. 20 @ Green Bay: 41.1
Sept. 27 vs. Chicago: 77.8
Oct. 5 vs. Detroit: 72.3
Oct. 11 @ Cincinnati: 54.5
Oct. 18 vs. Carolina: 68.4
Oct. 22 @ San Francisco: 63.7
Nov. 1 @ Dallas: 50.0
Nov. 15 vs. Arizona: 69.1
Nov. 22 vs. San Francisco: 73.4
Nov. 29 vs. Pittsburgh: 65.1
Dec. 6 @ Minnesota: 59.8
Dec. 13 @ Baltimore: 50.8
Dec. 20 vs. Cleveland: 80.0
Dec. 27 vs. St. Louis: 72.8
Jan. 3 @ Arizona: 54.5
Brady Henderson's game-by-game predictions
It's along the offensive line, where the Seahawks lost a pair of starters, then moved a third to a different position. Seattle sent Pro Bowl center Max Unger to New Orleans in the Graham trade, then let left guard James Carpenter leave in free agency. After none of the young players competing to start at those positions claimed either job, Seattle shook things up by moving right tackle Justin Britt to left guard. Now, the likely starters at center and right tackle, respectively, are Drew Nowak and Garry Gilliam, undrafted players who each have yet to start a regular-season game in their career. Unger was like the central nervous system of Seattle's offensive line, the one responsible for calling protections and getting everyone on the same page. His loss is a big one. But then again, the Seahawks traded Unger voluntarily, just like they allowed Carpenter to walk in free agency. The team believed in offensive line coach Tom Cable's ability to field a functional unit with a few cheap and inexperienced players. He has done it in the past. Can he do it again?
Comments from players and coaches have affirmed what's been evident in practice and preseason games: Graham has had no trouble fitting into Seattle's locker room or its offense. That wasn't the case the last time the Seahawks made a blockbuster trade for an offensive playmaker. The early signs with Graham are much more promising than they were for Percy Harvin two years ago. "I think the cool part about Jimmy is we can just plug him in," offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell said. "We really don't have to do anything special." Graham said of his rapport with Wilson: "It's been pretty instant. I think with Russ it's bigger than the game, it's bigger than football, and that's how you know something special is going to happen, when it extends off the field. So far so good. It's been amazing."
That it's followed a similar path back to its third straight Super Bowl. This season won't be easy for Seattle. Then again, it wasn't in 2013 or 2014, either. The Seahawks reached the Super Bowl in both seasons despite challenges that would have derailed lesser teams including injuries and suspensions, locker room turmoil, brutally tough stretches in their schedule and an offense that briefly lost its way. This Seattle team is every bit as talented as the two that preceded it, which is why, even with issues on the offensive line and in the secondary, there's no reason to believe that the Seahawks can't make it back to another Super Bowl.
No. 10: ARIZONA CARDINALS
Last Season: 11-5
Second place, NFC West; lost 27-16 to Panthers in wild-card round
Arizona has a 13-2 record in Carson Palmer's past 15 starts, and his 67.6 QBR in those games ranks eighth in the league. But Palmer is coming off ACL surgery at age 35, so there are naturally questions about whether he can hold up for a full season. On the upside, as one personnel director puts it, "He plays well as a stationary dropback QB." To help, Arizona made moves to upgrade its running game (Pro Bowl LG Mike Iupati, who is on the injured list for now) after Andre Ellington & Co. ranked 32nd in yards per carry last season. An improved run game should help take pressure off Palmer. Can the defense do the same without former coordinator Todd Bowles? Even with him, the Cards allowed four opponents to reach 500 yards last season. Getting LB Daryl Washington back (substance-abuse suspension) would help, but there are enough question marks on both sides of the ball to make another 11-win season unlikely. Then again, this team has proved adept at beating the odds. -- Mike Sando
Many may say it's because quarterback Carson Palmer is healthy nine months after tearing the ACL in his left knee and is throwing as well as he's ever thrown in his career. But the reason why Arizona will make the playoffs is because of a rebuilt running game. With a healthy Andre Ellington complemented by rookie David Johnson and veteran Chris Johnson, the Cardinals have a backfield that's deep, explosive and can last into the playoffs.
As it did in 2014 and started to in training camp, if the injury bug bites Arizona again, the Cardinals could be watching the postseason from their couches. The Cardinals are deep enough this season to absorb injuries everywhere but at quarterback. We all saw how that turned out last season. If Palmer stays healthy, there's a slim chance this team doesn't go to the playoffs. General manager Steve Keim built this year's roster with enough depth to avoid what happened last year.
Cardinals' percentage chance to win each game
Sept. 13 vs. New Orleans: 55.7
Sept. 20 @ Chicago: 51.9
Sept. 27 vs. San Francisco: 64.4
Oct. 4 vs. St. Louis: 62.3
Oct. 11 @ Detroit: 45.5
Oct. 18 @ Pittsburgh: 40.9
Oct. 26 vs. Baltimore: 54.5
Nov. 1 @ Cleveland: 55.2
Nov. 15 @ Seattle: 30.7
Nov. 22 vs. Cincinnati: 57.7
Nov. 29 @ San Francisco: 52.1
Dec. 6 @ St. Louis: 48.2
Dec. 10 vs. Minnesota: 62.4
Dec. 20 @ Philadelphia: 38.8
Dec. 27 vs. Green Bay: 46.0
Jan. 3 vs. Seattle: 45.2
Josh Weinfuss' game-by-game predictions
Losing defensive coordinator Todd Bowles, who is the head coach of the New York Jets. Even though Arizona is going to run the same defensive scheme under coordinator James Bettcher, having someone new call the plays will be an adjustment. During the preseason, the Cardinals didn't appear to have any issues with Bettcher in charge. But Bowles was good at making halftime adjustments; it will be interesting to see if Bettcher has the same talent.
Arizona knows getting too excited in August will be a waste of energy, especially after watching a 9-1 start fizzle into a wild-card loss a season ago. But optimism is quietly high. The defense is using 2014 as motivation and is already jelling, while the offense -- and coaches -- know Palmer attacked his rehab with a vengeance and it's resulted in the strongest arm he's had in years. Maybe ever.
The Cardinals will be saying one of three things come February: "There's champagne in my eye!" "It's tough to lose a Super Bowl" or "We wish we didn't suffer so many injuries again." Arizona has enough depth and ability on this year's roster, especially with a healthy Palmer, to make a run deep into January and potentially into February. Even if there are injuries, the Cardinals can still make the playoffs. Their run will just end earlier.
No. 22: ST. LOUIS RAMS
Last Season: 6-10
Fourth place, NFC West
Nick Foles has shown he can produce at a high level when supported by a topflight offensive line, ample weapons and a cutting-edge scheme. He had those things in Philly for a while, but he struggled when the parts around him diminished. Unfortunately for Foles, the Rams' line is young -- they have six rookie linemen this season, and some will start -- and their weapons are unproven (there are no LeSean McCoys or DeSean Jacksons here, and first-round RB Todd Gurley is still rounding into form). Fortunately for Foles, St. Louis should have one of the best defenses in the league; it returns a dominant defensive front featuring Chris Long, Robert Quinn and Aaron Donald. That gives hope that Foles will get support, but the QB could use a few surer bets on offense. -- Mike Sando
With all 11 starters, coordinator Gregg Williams and most of the depth back in the fold, the Rams' defense could be good enough to carry the freight for the entire team. If the defense is able to take that next step and become a top-tier group, the offense just needs new quarterback Nick Foles and a revamped offensive line to limit turnovers and facilitate enough big plays to push the Rams into playoff contention.
With three new starters on the line and a new starting quarterback under the guidance of a new coordinator -- and a rookie, Todd Gurley, eventually taking over at running back -- the offense might not be able to score enough points, no matter how well the defense plays.
Rams' percentage chance to win each game
Sept. 13 vs. Seattle: 39.4
Sept. 20 @ Washington: 52.8
Sept. 27 vs. Pittsburgh: 49.7
Oct. 4 @ Arizona: 37.4
Oct. 11 @ Green Bay: 25.7
Oct. 18 vs. Cleveland: 67.9
Nov. 1 vs. San Francisco: 59.1
Nov. 9 @ Minnesota: 42.6
Nov. 15 vs. Chicago: 62.4
Nov. 22 @ Baltimore: 34.2
Nov. 26 @ Cincinnati: 37.1
Dec. 6 vs. vs. Arizona: 51.4
Dec. 13 vs. Detroit: 52.3
Dec. 20 vs. Tampa Bay: 69.1
Dec. 27 @ Seattle: 27.0
Jan. 3 @ San Francisco: 46.4
Nick Wagoner's game-by-game predictions
The Rams have changes all over the offense but nowhere is it more important than quarterback and the line. Foles finally gives them a healthy option who should be an upgrade over backup-caliber signal-callers like Kellen Clemens and Shaun Hill. But his continued health is no sure thing playing behind a line that probably will include two rookies. For Foles -- and by extension, the Rams -- to succeed, that line needs to grow up in a hurry.
This is the fourth season of the Jeff Fisher/Les Snead regime, which hasn't yielded more than seven wins. Fisher has said that such mediocrity is no longer acceptable, and that seems to be the prevailing sentiment around the team. After three years spent developing draft picks, the Rams even believe a division crown is in reach. "I anticipate us contending for the West," said Snead, the general manager. "I'm planning on it, expecting it and not scared."
It took the Rams four offseasons to fully commit to becoming the power-running/dominant-defense model that Fisher espoused upon his arrival in 2012. They finally invested the draft capital in the offensive line and parted with injury-prone quarterback Sam Bradford, but their refusal to do it sooner means the Rams will have too many growing pains to rise above the mediocre levels they've been accustomed to under Fisher. Which means another middling finish is in the offing.
No. 24: SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Last Season: 8-8
Third place, NFC West
The 49ers know they can contend with Colin Kaepernick at quarterback -- if they have a strong ground game and a top-five defense. Kaepernick's completion rate actually improved from 2013, but his interception rate climbed and he took 52 sacks, more than any QB except Blake Bortles (55). "[Jim] Harbaugh allowed him to get exposed a little by trying to have him win, to be the centerpiece of the offense instead of what he does naturally -- running," one personnel director laments. Now with Harbaugh and O-coordinator Greg Roman gone, he's got to rely on new head coach Jim Tomsula and a less proven staff. They'll recommit to the ground game -- with RB Carlos Hyde taking over for the departed Frank Gore -- and hope the young defensive talent (Arik Armstead, Eli Harold, Corey Lemonier) plays well enough to overcome the departures of Justin Smith, Patrick Willis, Aldon Smith and Chris Borland. But that might not be enough. We know the final game of the season will be at Levi's Stadium. It's looking less likely that the Niners will be playing in it. -- Mike Sando
Yes, there has been an exodus of Biblical proportions from Santa Clara, California, but there is still front-line talent. This new coaching staff will not let ego get in the way of developing a game plan and, being all on the same page this year, as opposed to last season, players will be put in the best position to succeed. With the hard-driving Jim Harbaugh gone, it feels as though a dark cloud has lifted and Jim Tomsula is a kinder, gentler coach who knows which buttons to push.
Remember that whole exodus of Biblical proportions business? Yeah, it's simply too much for the Niners to overcome. And make no mistake about it, this is a rebuilding project, not a reloading situation. There are simply too many holes and Aldon Smith was supposed to be a building block. So, too, was Ahmad Brooks, and now his status is in the air. Look at it this way -- the Niners were 8-8 last year and can you honestly say they got better this offseason?
49ers' percentage chance to win each game
Sept. 14 vs. Minnesota: 55.7
Sept. 20 @ Pittsburgh: 31.0
Sept. 27 @ Arizona: 35.4
Oct. 4 vs. Green Bay: 36.6
Oct. 11 @ N.Y. Giants: 37.5
Oct. 18 vs. Baltimore: 46.6
Oct. 22 vs. Seattle: 36.0
Nov. 1 @ St. Louis: 40.6
Nov. 8 vs. Atlanta: 53.6
Nov. 22 @ Seattle: 26.4
Nov. 29 vs. Arizona: 47.5
Dec. 6 @ Chicago: 42.8
Dec. 13 @ Cleveland: 45.9
Dec. 20 vs. Cincinnati: 47.3
Dec. 27 @ Detroit: 35.8
Jan. 3 vs. St. Louis: 53.2
Paul Gutierrez's game-by-game predictions
Going from the manic personality of Harbaugh to the mellow mien of Tomsula. Harbaugh was the face of the franchise as it went to three straight NFC title games, including a Super Bowl appearance, before last year's implosion. And while the franchise is still dealing with the repercussions of the purported alpha-male battle between Harbaugh and general manager Trent Baalke, at least everyone, from the 90th man on the roster to CEO Jed York, is on the same page now.
Last year's problems were not a talent problem; they had more to do with injuries and, well, coaching. Specifically, obstinate coaching that did not put players in the optimum position for success. So, with players healthy -- paging NaVorro Bowman -- and happy -- is that the read-option returning, Colin Kaepernick? -- and the problem (coaching) now gone, it's all good and the sky's the limit, right? At least, that's the vibe emanating from Santa Clara. Fool's gold, or gold nugget?
The Niners have enough talent and imagination to make things interesting. But so many questions abound and there are not enough answers. The schedule is a bear early on, not exactly a talisman for a team that needs as many breaks as possible. The pieces are in place for this season to be either a heartwarming tale of underdogs and a self-described nobody-from-nowhere coach fighting against all odds and accomplishing a goal, or an unmitigated dumpster fire.