This story appears in ESPN The Magazine's April 24 NFL Draft Issue. Subscribe today!
Every spring The Mag tries to answer one not-so-simple question: Who will win the Stanley Cup? Our patented playoff forecast model has had, well, mixed results. Although we correctly picked the Blackhawks to hoist the Cup in 2015, we also predicted the Kings would win it all -- not just one game -- last year. For this year's formula, we're using four common characteristics of Stanley Cup winners over the past six seasons: elite-level penalty-killing, top-tier goaltending, clutch puck possession and a battle-tested roster. Then we created benchmarks in each category by using the low among Stanley Cup winners over those six seasons.
The only team this year to pass the test: the Capitals. Yeah, the same team that seems to always dominate regular seasons only to exit the playoffs early. Still, after claiming the Presidents' Trophy, and sporting the third-best offense, it's no surprise that Washington cleared our criteria. Here's a closer look at why it ranks as our favorite as the playoffs begin. Hey, if the Cubs and the Cavs can win rings, why not the Caps?
KILLER INSTINCT
Capitalizing in the playoffs is key, but nullifying others' chances is critical. The Caps' four main penalty killers -- Karl Alzner, Jay Beagle, John Carlson and Daniel Winnik -- shut down 83.8 percent of power plays; our benchmark is 82.6 percent. Through April 11, Winnik was third among forwards in shorthanded goals-against per 60 minutes with at least 180 such minutes (5.63).
CREASE IS THE WORD
Pay attention: You can't win a championship without hot goaltending. Lucky for the Capitals they've got Vezina winner Braden Holtby, who holds a .935 even-strength save percentage -- better than our benchmark of .929. That's good enough to put Holtby fourth among Cup contenders. Defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk credits Holtby's "ability to stay calm, always be in position and make saves under duress."
KEEP YOUR EYE ON THE PUCK
Control the puck, control your destiny. The Caps' 52.13 SAT 5v5 close percentage is third among playoff contenders, well ahead of our benchmark of 50.98. Washington's puck possession contributes to the league's second-best win percentage in one-goal games. With puck-moving defensemen (four are top 15 in close-game puck possession at the position), Washington has outshot its foes in 49 of its games.
ICE AGE
Sure, the Caps have not made a conference finals since the '90s. But they've made eight of the past nine postseasons, and only three playoff teams have more than their 1,043 rostered postseason games. Coach Barry Trotz has 50 playoff games behind the bench. "The reality is you're not going to know if you have a championship team until you actually do it," says right winger Justin Williams, whose 127 playoff games ranks 10th among active players.