LOUDON, N.H. - As long as he takes the green flag Sunday afternoon at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, Jeff Gordon will break Ricky Rudd's consecutive race start streak nine years, 10 months and eight days after the last of Rudd's 788 consecutive races.
It could take longer -- likely much, much longer -- for Gordon's streak, set to end at 797 races with the season 2015 season finale at Homestead, is broken.
Here's a look at the reasons why:
Few current drivers could hit it
The next driver on the consecutive starts list is Matt Kenseth at 565 races. He'd have to race for more than six full seasons to break Gordons record. Do we see Kenseth racing until 2022, when he's 50 years old? Nope.
"Jeff said he would never catch Ricky and he did, but I don't know that I will race long enough to catch that mark," Kenseth said Friday morning at New Hampshire before taking a moment to pause: "But who knows?"
Next on the list with 495 consecutive starts each are Jimmie Johnson and Ryan Newman, who would need to race into 2024. Johnson would be 48 when he breaks the record (he would be 49 later that season), and few envision Johnson racing at age 49. If anything, retiring a year earlier would make sense for Johnson -- No. 48 retires at age 48! Thank goodness he doesn't have Dale Earnhardt Jr.'s car number.
But wanting to spend more time with his kids might make him retire sooner, not to mention the older he gets, the tougher it is to devote energy to posting a great triathlon time.
Really, the most likely current Sprint Cup driver to break the streak would be Joey Logano. He's at 243 races and it would take 15 more years, but he would only be 40 at that time -- four years younger than Gordon is today.
"I've got a long ways to go," Logano said when posed the question of whether he could be the one to break the streak. "Fifteen years? Holy crap. I'm only 25. I guess I have a chance."
New Chase format won't require it
Drivers don't have to race hurt like they used to just to get points in a race. With the new Chase format, a driver can miss a race with an injury as long as NASCAR grants its approval. With the addition of SAFER Barriers and more safety devices, this is a safer sport, but still one where injury can happen. Kyle Busch and Kyle Larson both missed races for health reasons this year and still were eligible for the championship.
Car owners and drivers certainly give more serious thought to missing a race so a driver can be healthier later in the season. There's absolutely no reason to push things, especially if a driver already has a win. So the culture has changed in this era -- the rules were created to give drivers a break if they needed one instead of the era prior to 2004, when the season was based on points totaled over a 36-race schedule.
The amazing thing for Gordon is that he has rarely even considered not racing. He did last year when he had issues with his back, but he was able to get enough treatment to be able to compete.
In 1996, Terry Labonte beat Gordon for the title while competing in the past two events with a broken wrist. Labonte held the record for consecutive starts before Rudd broke it in 2002. Labonte's streak had ended in 2000 when effects of a concussion kept him out of two races. Rudd's streak ended when he temporary retired from full-time racing after the 2005 season only to return for the 2007 season.
"Those guys dealt with some major injuries and fought through," Gordon said. "I've seen [Labonte] race with a broken hand or wrist or whatever it was, was pretty amazing," Gordon said. "I've had some injuries along the way that I've had to fight through, so I have a taste of it -- but certainly nothing like those guys. Those guys are way tougher."
Age limits and scheduling
Now that a driver has to be 18 years old to compete on big tracks in NASCAR's Camping World Truck Series, as well as any race in Xfinity and Sprint Cup, drivers would have to race at least into their 40s to break Gordon's record.
It is likely they would need a couple of years of grooming in Xfinity and trucks before embarking on a full-time Cup effort, much like Gordon did at age 21. Chase Elliott will be 20 years old when he begins full-time Cup racing next year - meaning he'll be 42 if he races every race, assuming 36 races a year, to break the streak.
And will there always be 36 races a year? That's a good question, considering at least an undercurrent belief that the NASCAR season is too long.
Gordon a Wonderboy
While he hasn't won a title since 2001, Gordon has won races in all but three of his full-time seasons. If he doesn't win a race this year, that would be a fourth. He has finished top-10 in points every year except his rookie season in 1993 (he was 14th) and 2005 when he missed the Chase and finished 11th (back then, only 10 drivers made the Chase).
The ability to compete at such a high level for 23 years is truly remarkable. Few drivers will be able to hang on to a full-time ride for that long -- and be able to avoid an injury that keeps them out of races.
"That streak don't mean a lot except for you've been around for a long time, you're getting older and your fortunate to not get hurt or not be sick a lot," Kenseth said. "I guess it means a little bit more than that. You've got to be competitive obviously to keep a ride and be doing that every week.
"But it's nothing I really ever set out to do."