The countdown to the first Test of Eddie Jones' second coming as Wallabies coach has entered its final weeks.
With the Brumbies bowing out of Super Rugby Pacific in a semifinal loss to the Chiefs last weekend, Australian eyes, at least, have shifted to Jones' first official squad of 2023.
While the Brumbies players are enjoying some time off this week, a group of players from the Rebels, Force and, as of this week, the Waratahs and Reds, have been training, first on the Gold Coast and now at Coogee. The group has also included those who play their rugby overseas, whose seasons had already drawn to a close.
And so Jones will on Sunday name a 33-man squad for the Rugby Championship, with the Wallabies then having two weeks to prepare for their tournament opener against the Springboks in Pretoria.
So how might that squad look? Read on as we take a swipe at how it might all come together.
PROPS [5]: Allan Alaalatoa, Pone Fa'aumasili, Matt Gibbon, James Slipper, Sam Talakai.
Rehab group: Taniela Tupou, Angus Bell
The evergreen James Slipper headlines this group, the Queenslander underlining his value and experience in the Brumbies' finals matches against both the Hurricanes and Chiefs. His Brumbies teammate, Allan Alaalatoa, missed both of those games, but the word out of Canberra last week was that he would have been good to go for the final had ACT won in Hamilton.
The remaining three props for the trip to South Africa, at least, will likely come from the Rebels, with Matt Gibbon, Sam Talakai and Pone Fa'amausili all enjoying arguably their best Super Rugby seasons to date. Gibbon and Talakai were rocks for Melbourne at set-piece, while Fa'amausili provided an injection of physicality and energy off the bench.
The Waratahs' Tom Lambert and Reds' Zane Nonggorr have also been in camp in Coogee this week, but are at longer odds to play a role in the Rugby Championship, unless there is a significant run of injuries. Brumbies prop Blake Schoupp is also on the fringes after featuring in Jones' April training camp.
But all those aside from Slipper and Alaalatoa will be battling it out for one, maybe two spots, in the World Cup group if Taniela Tupou and Angus Bell make it back towards the end of the Rugby Championship/Bledisloe series, as is expected.
HOOKERS [3]: Lachie Lonergan, Dave Porecki, Jordan Uelese
Long tagged one of the Wallabies' problem positions, the concern at hooker remains, specifically around the size of the frontline options. While Lachie Lonergan and Dave Porecki are sound lineout throwers and busy on both sides of the ball, they do not offer the line-bending carrying options of a Samisoni Taukei'aho or Codie Taylor.
Still, Lonergan and Porecki will be the first two names down at hooker, with the Rebels' Jordan Uelese offering that point of difference the others lack. Uelese was not a constant starter for the Rebels this season, with Alex Mafi often preferred as the run-on rake, but he has long shown glimpses of his carrying ability and was an option under former Wallabies coaches Michael Cheika and Dave Rennie.
Just where that leaves Folau Fainga'a after his move to the Force this season holds intrigue, with the former Brumbies rake battling form and injury after his shift west. There is no doubt that Fainga'a is the best driving maul conductor Australia have at their disposal, but his discipline has long been a problem previous coaches were unable to fix.
Matt Faessler was meanwhile the breakout hooker among the Australian franchises this season and could perhaps be an injury or two away from a call-up.
LOCKS [5]: Richie Arnold, Nick Frost, Jed Holloway, Cadeyrn Neville, Will Skelton
A problem position for the Wallabies at the 2019 World Cup, Jones is suddenly awash with options in the second-row, with the emergence of some local talent, the easing of the Giteau Law, and a shrinking injury ward all combining to present a range of tall timber.
Certainly Jones' recent comments about Richie Arnold - the coach was effusive in his praise for the Toulon lock on The Roar Rugby Podcast this week - and the mere fact that the second-rower would be unlikely to travel back and push his case for selection without genuine assurance he was a chance to feature at the World Cup, suggest the less-heralded of the Arnold twins will be named on Sunday.
He will be joined by Will Skelton, another Giteau Law selection, with the duo set to arrive in Australia early next week. Of the locally-based options, Nick Frost and Cadeyrn Neville were both central in the Brumbies' run to the semifinals, the latter enjoying his best game of the season in a tireless effort against the Chiefs at the weekend.
And then there is Jed Holloway, who is really classed as a hybrid lock/back-row option and sits among Jones' leadership group that has been meeting remotely periodically throughout the season. Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, who has signed to return to Australia after a season away at Northampton, is in the same boat in that he can cover both lock and No. 6. And then there is Izack Rodda, a proven performer at Test level, but someone who has played sparing little rugby the past two years.
Behind that group on the fringes seemingly sit Ned Hanigan, Darcy Swain, Seru Uru and even Josh Canham, whom Jones also name-dropped on The Roar podcast this week.
BACK-ROWERS [5]: Michael Hooper, Tom Hooper, Fraser McReight, Pete Samu, Rob Valetini
Rehab group: Langi Gleeson, Rob Leota
The composition of Jones' first back-row trio in Pretoria perhaps holds the greatest intrigue, so too how he squeezes the raft of No. 8 and No. 6 options into the squad that heads for Paris in mid-August.
Certainly Rob Valetini, Pete Samu, Michael Hooper and Fraser McReight all appear walk-up starters in the Rugby Championship group on Sunday, a cohort which will run either five or six deep depending on where Jones really sees Holloway figuring.
That is likely to decide the fate of one of either Tom Hooper or Harry Wilson, who offer contrasting skill-sets but equally generous upsides depending on how Jones wants the Wallabies to play. Questions around Langi Gleeson's durability have overshadowed his excellent form this season, with the Waratahs No. 8 proving a genuine line-breaker with his blockbusting ball-carries.
Wilson, meanwhile, again showed his workrate on the attacking side of the ball this season, topping Super Rugby for carries by a huge margin; but it will likely have been his increased contributions on defence that made a greater impression on Jones.
As for Tom Hooper, there is a lot to like about the Brumbies young gun, who started at No. 7 in his side's loss to the Chiefs last weekend. Hooper has been used at lock, No. 6 and now No. 7 by ACT, and could seemingly also cover No. 8. That versatility is a huge asset, particularly for a World Cup where squads are limited to 33, up from 31 in 2019.
Rob Leota, who along with Taniela Tupou, hasn't laced a boot this year, is nearing a return but would seemingly be shooting for the two-Test Bledisloe series, or the match against the Pumas beforehand, as he continues his recovery from a ruptured Achilles.
SCRUM-HALVES [3]: Issak Fines-Leleiwasa, Tate McDemott, Nic White
A position where Australia has always enjoyed genuine depth, scrum-half again will see some hard-luck World Cup stories later this year. Nic White knows all about that, having been a controversial omission in 2015, but the Brumbies veteran will be among the first picked this time around.
One of the biggest decisions Jones has to make for the World Cup will be whether he takes a third scrum-half to Paris, or uses the additional two spots that have been added since the 2019 tournament because of concussion, elsewhere across his squad.
Given Tate McDermott's ability to change the tempo of a game, and his footwork and darting runs in and around the ruck, the Queenslander looms as an excellent bench option that will provide an injection of genuine energy from the bench. The same can be said of the Force's Issak Fines-Leleiwasa, who looks to have moved in front of Jake Gordon in the pecking order, the Waratahs skipper clearly not a Jones favourite if recent comments to Sydney-based journalists were anything to go by.
That leaves Brumbies deputy Ryan Lonergan, whose clearing pass was badly exposed by the Chiefs in Hamilton at the weekend, albeit with a fair dose of conjecture as to where the offside line might actually have been.
The string in Lonergan's bow is his goal-kicking, the halfback able to hit them from 50 metres out, which is a valuable commodity at Test level. He does not, however, boast the running game or fast feet of McDermott or Fines-Leleiwasa.
FLY-HALVES [3]: Quade Cooper, Bernard Foley, Carter Gordon
No position has undergone as much discussion, nor transformation in Australian rugby in recent years, than fly-half. At the start of this World Cup cycle it was James O'Connor who first wore the No. 10 shirt under Dave Rennie, before the transition to Noah Lolesio, and then the shock returns of Quade Cooper and later Bernard Foley.
As a result, Cooper and Foley find themselves in positions 1 and 2 in the pecking order in 2023. The big talking point this year, however, has been the emergence of Carter Gordon. The Rebels playmaker was the breakout star of Australia's Super Rugby cohort, while Jones later lauded his "toughness and solid passing game" before likening him to former Springboks hardman Butch James.
Given the experience of Cooper and Foley, and the upside of Gordon, it's hard to find a place for anyone else at this point; Ben Donaldson has been sighted at Coogee this week, but the Waratahs No. 10 had a largely underwhelming Super season riddled with mistakes in key moments.
Lolesio, meanwhile, finished the season behind Jack Debreczeni at the Brumbies, with both men likely in a similar space to Donaldson.
CENTRES [3]: Lalakai Foketi, Samu Kerevi, Len Ikitau
Australia's first-choice midfield is genuinely world-class and so both Samu Kerevi and Len Ikitau need not sweat a phone call this weekend. There is some concern over Kerevi's readiness to face the Springboks in Pretoria, but Ikitau's form this year has been superb and he will wear 13 whenever fit over the course of the year.
At the tail end of last year, Foketi had finished the season ahead of Hunter Paisami in the No. 12 pecking order, the hard-running Reds back then only managing six games for Queensland in Super Rugby. That created an opportunity for both James O'Connor and rising star Josh Flook to push their cases, and both could yet have a role to play in the run to the World Cup.
Certainly, O'Connor's best footy this year seemed to come when he wore the No. 12 shirt, and perhaps that versatility -- he has also played outside centre, wing and fullback throughout his long Test career -- may yet see him reach a third World Cup.
Beyond that, Izaia Perese will be disappointed in a Super Rugby season that was affected by injury, the Waratahs centre only able to show fleeting moments of his tackle-shredding ability.
OUTSIDE BACKS [6]: Reece Hodge, Andrew Kellaway, Marika Koroibete, Mark Nawaqanitawase, Suliasi Vunivalu, Tom Wright.
Rehab group: Jordan Petaia
As many as six outside backs could head to Pretoria next month, with the caveat that some players will also provide cover for outside centre. They are Rebels players Andrew Kellaway and Reece Hodge, who while they prefer to place in the back three they can also do a job in the midfield.
Kellaway is seemingly otherwise in a two-horse race with Tom Wright to start at fullback, the Brumbies flyer enjoying a largely stellar Super Rugby season until he endured a bleak night in Hamilton on the weekend.
On the wings are Marika Koroibete and Mark Nawaqanitawase, combining the Wallabies' most consistent performer of this World Cup cycle and the player who rose from Australia A to spring tourist in 2022.
Jones has dropped Suliasi Vunivalu's name too often to think he will overlook the Reds winger on Sunday, particularly given the Fijian at last appears to be running at something resembling full tilt and whose form was very good over the final month of Queensland's season.
Jordan Petaia's ongoing recovery from a wrist injury suggests he will be included among the rehab group, while Jock Campbell and Dylan Piestch have also been sighted in Coogee this week.
Predicted 33-man Wallabies squad for Rugby Championship
Forwards [18]: Allan Alaalatoa, James Slipper, Pone Fa'aumasili, Matt Gibbon, Sam Talakai, Lachlan Lonergan, Dave Porecki, Jordan Uelese, Richie Arnold, Nick Frost, Cadeyrn Neville, Will Skelton, Jed Holloway, Michael Hooper, Tom Hooper, Fraser McReight, Pete Samu, Rob Valetini
Backs: [15]: Nic White, Tate McDermott, Isaak Fines-Leleiwasa, Quade Cooper, Bernard Foley, Carter Gordon, Lalakai Foketi, Len Ikitau, Samu Kerevi, Reece Hodge, Andrew Kellaway, Marika Koroibete, Mark Nawaqanitawase, Suliasi Vunivalu, Tom Wright.
Rehab group [5]: Angus Bell, Langi Gleeson, Rob Leota, Jordan Petaia, Taniela Tupou.